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Post by stodge on May 10, 2024 19:14:09 GMT
Looking at the Hillingdon East numbers, the 2018 and 2022 results are quite similar and Labour got out their 1300-1400 vote but the Conservative vote jumped to nearly 3000 (around 2000 in 2022) on a turnout of 46.8% so I can only conclude the Conservatives successfully brought out to vote in a local by election and Mayoral election supporters who didn't bother in the 2022 normal round of elections.
Also worth noting the Ealing & Hillingdon Mayoral count saw Hall beating Khan by 2000 but the GLA Constituency was won by Labour by 5000. Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats all did much better in the GLA Constituency vote than the Mayoral race - very roughly the split was 40-35-25 (the three minor parties scored between them). I suspect we'll see that across the capital suggesting (strongly) the combination of Khan and the plethora of candidates helped Hall but not anywhere near enough.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jun 1, 2024 16:46:50 GMT
Starmer, Rayner et al here this morning. Starmer made a joke about London buses and Tory defectors which was quite funny...
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Post by greenhert on Jun 4, 2024 16:30:29 GMT
Although once again the ULEZ issue with blunt the Conservative to Labour swing here, this time it will not be nearly enough for Steve Tuckwell to hold on as he did against all predictions last year.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 4, 2024 19:14:09 GMT
Although once again the ULEZ issue with blunt the Conservative to Labour swing here, this time it will not be nearly enough for Steve Tuckwell to hold on as he did against all predictions last year. Why not? What has changed in that short time?
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Post by batman on Jun 4, 2024 22:47:56 GMT
what has changed is that it is a general election. In a by-election, when who is government is not generally at stake, sometimes issues can come to the fore which are less salient at the general election. For some voters of course it will still be a very important issue, but less so than in the by-election.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,547
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Post by ricmk on Jun 4, 2024 23:42:05 GMT
Surely what's also changed is the timing. The by-election was held just *before* ULEZ came in, so it was a live issue and people were worried about it.
Now it's landed, and people realise it mostly doesn't affect them, and might even have some benefits, it doesn't have the same salience. If you think it does, have another look at Susan Hall's mayoral result.
If Steve Tuckwell thinks a copy and paste ULEZ campaign will work this time, I'd imagine Labour would be glad of that.
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Post by batman on Jun 5, 2024 6:37:44 GMT
Well that's partly true. But there clearly are some voters who are still angry about it. I remember canvassing in the Mayoral election in this constituency and an elderly woman was very angry because her son had to pay it to see her which was a daily undertaking for him. However, you're mostly right; it really doesn't affect as many people as had once been guessed
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2024 6:42:55 GMT
Surely what's also changed is the timing. The by-election was held just *before* ULEZ came in, so it was a live issue and people were worried about it. Now it's landed, and people realise it mostly doesn't affect them, and might even have some benefits, it doesn't have the same salience. If you think it does, have another look at Susan Hall's mayoral result.If Steve Tuckwell thinks a copy and paste ULEZ campaign will work this time, I'd imagine Labour would be glad of that. I imagine Susan 'won' Uxbridge & South Ruislip FWIW. (I know turnout was lower than a GE). Hillingdon Labour are weaker than in the 90s. It's still a Tory council.
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 5, 2024 6:43:34 GMT
Well that's partly true. But there clearly are some voters who are still angry about it. I remember canvassing in the Mayoral election in this constituency and an elderly woman was very angry because her son had to pay it to see her which was a daily undertaking for him. However, you're mostly right; it really doesn't affect as many people as had once been guessed Same thing happened in Birmingham over the Clean Air Zone, I don’t think I’ve actually heard anyone moan about since actually it got started. Before it seemed to be all anyone cared about.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 5, 2024 7:34:18 GMT
Well that's partly true. But there clearly are some voters who are still angry about it. I remember canvassing in the Mayoral election in this constituency and an elderly woman was very angry because her son had to pay it to see her which was a daily undertaking for him. However, you're mostly right; it really doesn't affect as many people as had once been guessed Same thing happened in Birmingham over the Clean Air Zone, I don’t think I’ve actually heard anyone moan about since actually it got started. Before it seemed to be all anyone cared about. It's the standard psychology of loss aversion. People fear that any change will leave them worse of. All proposals for change therefore produce opposition. It makes me laugh when people and politicians say they want change - it's actually the last thing they want. What they want is for their lives to get better without anything changing, a logical impossibility. As a corollary when change is imposed, people frequently see that it is for the better, or at least irrelevant to their lives, contrary to their fears. It's why successful governments wanting to improve people's lives have to be a bit authoritarian and push things through if they think it is the right thing to do.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,957
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Post by mondialito on Jun 8, 2024 20:34:49 GMT
Danny BEALES - Labour Party Geoff COURTENAY - UK Independence Party (UKIP) Steve GARDNER - Social Democratic Party Sarah GREEN - Green Party Gary Lee HARBORD - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Ian Laurence REX-HAWKES - Liberal Democrats Steve TUCKWELL - Conservative Party Tim WHEELER - Reform UK
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 10, 2024 11:53:51 GMT
Danny BEALES - Labour Party Geoff COURTENAY - UK Independence Party (UKIP) Steve GARDNER - Social Democratic Party Sarah GREEN - Green Party Gary Lee HARBORD - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Ian Laurence REX-HAWKES - Liberal Democrats Steve TUCKWELL - Conservative Party Tim WHEELER - Reform UK
I'm assuming the Reform candidate isn't the lead singer of Ash.
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Post by londonseal80 on Jun 10, 2024 12:12:52 GMT
Danny BEALES - Labour Party Geoff COURTENAY - UK Independence Party (UKIP) Steve GARDNER - Social Democratic Party Sarah GREEN - Green Party Gary Lee HARBORD - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Ian Laurence REX-HAWKES - Liberal Democrats Steve TUCKWELL - Conservative Party Tim WHEELER - Reform UK
I'm assuming the Reform candidate isn't the lead singer of Ash. Maybe they could cast a shining light on this candidate.
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2024 10:58:31 GMT
Danny Beales (Lab) in by over 500, essentially a mirror-image of the by-election result. So, it's 2 victory parties for me to attend - here, and Worthing West. First Labour MP here since 1970. Such a shame that his great-granddad didn't quite live to see it, he would have been incredibly proud.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 5, 2024 11:21:51 GMT
So pleased that Danny Beales did win this in the end.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 6:21:28 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | | | | | | | 1945 | 36.1% | 50.1% | 13.8% | | 1950 | 43.6% | 46.7% | 9.7% | | 1951 | 47.8% | 48.3% | 3.9% | | 1955 | 50.8% | 49.2% | | | 1959 | 46.6% | 40.2% | 13.2% | | 1964 | 43.8% | 40.2% | 16.0% | | 1966 | 43.5% | 43.8% | 12.7% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 49.7% | 40.4% | 9.9% | | 1974 | 42.4% | 36.3% | 21.1% | | 1974 | 44.4% | 38.8% | 16.6% | | 1979 | 52.9% | 34.0% | 11.9% | 1.2% | 1983 | 53.6% | 20.0% | 26.3% | | 1987 | 56.1% | 21.4% | 21.7% | | 1992 | 55.9% | 27.4% | 15.0% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Grn | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1997 | 43.3% | 41.6% | 12.4% | 2.0% | | | 2001 | 45.6% | 39.5% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2005 | 46.1% | 29.7% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2010 | 50.1% | 23.3% | 18.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2015 | 51.3% | 25.9% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 3.2% | | 2017 | 51.6% | 39.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | | 2019 | 52.6% | 37.0% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 2.6% | |
This seat, unlike Harrow East, Hendon and Brent West, voted to the left of where it was in 1997. Thanks again for these figures. They are really good work.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2024 13:07:11 GMT
So pleased that Danny Beales did win this in the end. After 54 years and no fewer than three winnable but lost byelections, Uxbridge finally comes home! Where's that Titanic "its been so long" gif when you need it ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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Post by greenhert on Jul 21, 2024 8:58:04 GMT
It is clear that even a year after the by-election, the ULEZ issue was still somewhat salient. Not only was the Labour gain here narrow at just 587 votes, but in many outer London seats the Conservative vote share decrease was lower than average, even accounting for the Brexit backlash swings that happened in 2019, and the issue was decisive in the Conservatives holding Bromley & Biggin Hill which I predicted would be a Labour gain.
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2024 9:19:16 GMT
It was decisive maybe, but the swing to Labour in Bromley & Biggin Hill was a very large one, much larger than it was here. What was more decisive in B&BH was the boundary change; Labour would have won Bromley & Chislehurst on its former boundaries. However, it's doubtful that Labour would have won Beckenham on its 2010-24 boundaries.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jul 23, 2024 9:36:59 GMT
It is clear that even a year after the by-election, the ULEZ issue was still somewhat salient. Not only was the Labour gain here narrow at just 587 votes, but in many outer London seats the Conservative vote share decrease was lower than average, even accounting for the Brexit backlash swings that happened in 2019, and the issue was decisive in the Conservatives holding Bromley & Biggin Hill which I predicted would be a Labour gain. Khan has the right idea. Especially as EV's are heavier tarmac killing machines and road pricing should be tailored to demand.
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