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Post by erlend on Aug 8, 2012 9:50:06 GMT
And aren't there a number of very nationalist seats in the rural north that are very low electorates (shades of the Highlands)?
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 8, 2012 11:32:04 GMT
The Liberals usually waste a lot of votes piling up huge majorities in safe seats in the Montreal area. |
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Post by erlend on Aug 8, 2012 12:04:30 GMT
And aren't there a number of very nationalist seats in the rural north that are very low electorates (shades of the Highlands)? I think there's one huge, very underpopulated riding, but from the look of the results last time most of the electorate sizes in the rural north are about average. Of course those ridings are far larger in geographical terms than any constituency in the Scottish Highlands! More like the size of the UK or even larger I suspect. Even if small compared to the territory ridings. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 10, 2012 16:21:30 GMT
The record of riding polls is rather sketchy (some things are the same everywhere, I suppose) but one has been done of Sherbrooke and Charest trails by 15.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 1:56:19 GMT
I do remember it getting the last federal result horrendously wrong because its model could not keep up with the NDP surge. Did anyone's model get it anywhere near right though? There was a specific problem with his model in that it gave too much weight to polls which pre-dated the surge. It therefore effectively presumed that the post-surge polls were 'wrong' or exaggerated the NDP based on not much more than conjecture (the LDs were raised as a, highly unreliable, comparison) It was pretty clear by election day that the NDP were going to sweep Quebec unless something very weird happened - and 'something very weird happening' is probably not something that ought to be the basis of a forecasting model. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 18, 2012 11:24:36 GMT
There hasn't been a great deal of interest in creating a new provincial wing (it's been floated at both national and Quebec section conventions of the federal party) and there'd be the major problem that some of the NDP's activists and organisers (of whom there are not many in Quebec) are members of other provincial parties. Also a number of Quebec polls cover both federal and provincial voting intentions and show there isn't a direct correlation of voting intentions between the two levels or a sizeable would be NDP vote at provincial level. Despite that the NDP have now announced they will create a provincial wing for the next election: www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/mulcair-says-ndp-will-run-quebec-party-in-time-for-the-provincial-next-election-166568356.html |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 18, 2012 18:25:37 GMT
Things are starting to get interesting:
Léger: PQ 33, PLQ 28, CAQ 27, QS 6
CROP: PQ 34, PLQ 27, CAQ 25, QS 7
Forum Research: PQ 35, PLQ 31, CAQ 25, QS 6
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2012 0:04:05 GMT
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Post by comicbookguy on Aug 22, 2012 18:44:44 GMT
Forum Research now has the PLQ ahead:
PLQ - 35% (+4)
PQ - 29% (-6)
CAQ - 24% (-1)
QS - 9% (+3)
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 25, 2012 12:38:10 GMT
A Léger poll mentioned by someone over at Atlas:
PQ - 33, CAQ - 28, PLQ -27
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 28, 2012 18:29:47 GMT
And now CROP as well: PQ 33, CAQ 28, PLQ 26
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 3, 2012 21:03:42 GMT
Final set of polls...
Léger: PQ 33, CAQ 28, PLQ 27, QS 7, ON 3
CROP: PQ 32, CAQ 28, PLQ 26, QS 9, ON 2
Forum Research: PQ 33, PLQ 28, CAQ 27, QS 8, ON 2
The election is tomorrow. If the polls are right then the Liberals are about to suffer their worst defeat since 1976 and maybe their worst since the end of La Grande Noirceur. Or they could pull a rabbit out of a hat; they've done it before, after all.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 5, 2012 1:05:18 GMT
Early results suggest a PQ minority. The Liberals & CAQ could combine to have a very slender majority.
Charest is trailing in his own riding but only about 10% of polling stations have declared so far.
Quebec Solidaire look to have two seats but Option Nationale appear to be wiped out.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 5, 2012 1:07:59 GMT
CBC calling PQ government but probably just short of majority. At the moment with the polls that have declared it stands at 59 PQ, 46 Lib, 18 CAQ, 2 QS with 63 needed for a majority. QS could hold balance of power.
Lots of worried Anglo and Allophones about at the moment, praying that they just fall short.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 5, 2012 1:12:07 GMT
Early results suggest a PQ minority. The Liberals & CAQ could combine to have a very slender majority. Charest is trailing in his own riding but only about 10% of polling stations have declared so far. Quebec Solidaire look to have two seats but Option Nationale appear to be wiped out. Interestingly they're not even mentioning any possible coalition apart from QS & PQ. Seeing as QLP never tried to do a deal with ADQ back in '07, I can't see them trying to do one with CAQ now, especially as they're not even the largest party. From what's coming out from them they're preparing for opposition. If no majority coalition is possible I would expect another election by the end of next year. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 5, 2012 1:26:48 GMT
Sherbrooke: PQ up by 6pts with 50/216 reporting.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 5, 2012 1:28:46 GMT
Sherbrooke: PQ up by 6pts with 50/216 reporting. Looks like they're finally going to kick him out of Sherbrooke after 28 years! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 5, 2012 1:30:10 GMT
That would be for the best, but then he's come back from the dead there before.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 5, 2012 1:33:07 GMT
Legault is leading in L'Assomption, but not by a huge amount: CAQ 44.2, PQ 37.2, PLQ 12.3 with 42/202 in.
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 5, 2012 3:55:59 GMT
Pauline Marous makes history as the first female Premier of Quebec.
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