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Post by matureleft on Oct 29, 2024 13:14:56 GMT
Well the end-of-campaign polls were most certainly wrong. The last few had the NDP ahead by about 3% but instead the Sask Party dominated the popular vote by 13.5%. However, from where the NDP were, it's been a successful election, as whilst they were absolutely decimated in the rural areas (where the Sask Party ran up the popular vote numbers) they swept Regina and lost out on just 2 ridings in Saskatoon. The Sask Party super-majority that has lasted 17 years is at least over, and the NDP will come out with their strongest caucus since 2007. There is a pathway now for 2028 - grab the last two Saskatoon ridings, win the two Prince Albert ridings (they look like narrowly missing out on Prince Albert Northcote), and then you're looking at a wildcard like Moose Jaw Wakamow. Gets you a bare NDP majority. In the meantime, the Sask government will be almost exclusively rural-based. A sharp divide now in Saskatchewan politics - feels like an alternative universe now where the NDP where they could win rural ridings just as much as urban ones. There are one or two others that could be won - Last Mountain-Touchwood, Yorkton and White City- Qu'appelle have significant NDP votes but they would be a reach. The NDP dominated Saskatchewan politics for long periods (even beyond the Douglas era), presumably winning rural areas, but with a divided opposition. SP appears to have swept away the local Liberals (who used to have a substantial presence) as well as the Conservatives. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 29, 2024 13:22:36 GMT
Obviously it didn't match the rather flattering late campaign polls (which I presume just caught too many people in the cities), but it's a very positive result for the NDP and will completely upend the way provincial politics has been in Saskatchewan this past decade and a bit: the government no longer has a huge majority with large numbers of representatives from across the province which will make governing very different, and the NDP will not be spending a long time in an existential crisis, picking a new leader to get back off the floor and hoping that this time it works.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 29, 2024 13:52:21 GMT
Well the end-of-campaign polls were most certainly wrong. The last few had the NDP ahead by about 3% but instead the Sask Party dominated the popular vote by 13.5%. However, from where the NDP were, it's been a successful election, as whilst they were absolutely decimated in the rural areas (where the Sask Party ran up the popular vote numbers) they swept Regina and lost out on just 2 ridings in Saskatoon. The Sask Party super-majority that has lasted 17 years is at least over, and the NDP will come out with their strongest caucus since 2007. There is a pathway now for 2028 - grab the last two Saskatoon ridings, win the two Prince Albert ridings (they look like narrowly missing out on Prince Albert Northcote), and then you're looking at a wildcard like Moose Jaw Wakamow. Gets you a bare NDP majority. In the meantime, the Sask government will be almost exclusively rural-based. A sharp divide now in Saskatchewan politics - feels like an alternative universe now where the NDP where they could win rural ridings just as much as urban ones. They may still win those two Saskatoon ridings, we have the postal vote still to count (on Wednesday and November 9th dependeing when they were received) and it's usually pretty strongly NDP leaning (they gained one seat out of it last time). |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 29, 2024 13:53:01 GMT
There are constituency names, and then there are Canadian constituency names. Sounds like an obscure board game! Could sell a few units on here if it ever became a reality. |
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Post by redvers on Oct 29, 2024 13:56:43 GMT
Well the end-of-campaign polls were most certainly wrong. The last few had the NDP ahead by about 3% but instead the Sask Party dominated the popular vote by 13.5%. However, from where the NDP were, it's been a successful election, as whilst they were absolutely decimated in the rural areas (where the Sask Party ran up the popular vote numbers) they swept Regina and lost out on just 2 ridings in Saskatoon. The Sask Party super-majority that has lasted 17 years is at least over, and the NDP will come out with their strongest caucus since 2007. There is a pathway now for 2028 - grab the last two Saskatoon ridings, win the two Prince Albert ridings (they look like narrowly missing out on Prince Albert Northcote), and then you're looking at a wildcard like Moose Jaw Wakamow. Gets you a bare NDP majority. In the meantime, the Sask government will be almost exclusively rural-based. A sharp divide now in Saskatchewan politics - feels like an alternative universe now where the NDP where they could win rural ridings just as much as urban ones. There are one or two others that could be won - Last Mountain-Touchwood, Yorkton and White City- Qu'appelle have significant NDP votes but they would be a reach. The NDP dominated Saskatchewan politics for long periods (even beyond the Douglas era), presumably winning rural areas, but with a divided opposition. SP appears to have swept away the local Liberals (who used to have a substantial presence) as well as the Conservatives. Indeed, the Sask NDP were really the natural governing party. And now the Sask Party looks set to govern even longer than Tommy Douglas/Woodrow Lloyd's 20 years. They certainly had a fine ability to win rural areas, this was well-before the days when rural areas generally in the Western world turned hard to right-wing parties. Even in 1995, the Sask NDP was winning loads of rural ridings, although on that occasion a split opposition certainly helped. If the Sask NDP can sweep the two cities in 2028, win all of Prince Albert, and then win a long-shot riding, they're back in, but the days of NDP landslides in Saskatchewan look well behind us for now. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 29, 2024 14:17:02 GMT
CBC is being too cautious to call it but it's another Sask Party government, as expected. The only question is if it's an overall majority of 1 seat or a more comfortable 17 - as I type the lead is slap bang in the middle of those two figures at 9 MLAs, which is if anything an underperformance when you look at the popular vote. Unlike in BC and NB last week, votes are still counted by hand in Saskatchewan so the tabulation is moving very slowly there, which is proving frustrating for those trying to cover election night. Postal votes will apparently be tallied on Wednesday (so the day after next local time). No chance of a minority government since there are only two parties in the legislature these days. Looking at which parties are getting to finish a distant third across the various constituencies, the most recent third party (the Liberals) seem to be nowhere. In rural areas it tends to be Sask United or something called The Buffalo Party, while in the cities it looks like the continuity PCs, Greens and a fringe group calling themselves The Progress Party. Haven't spotted any strong independent candidates this time. Provnicial Leader of HM Loyal Opposition Carla Beck might've done enough to remain NDP leader if the SP majority stays in single figures. But four years can be a long time in politics. That's the new name of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, which once held power. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 29, 2024 14:28:08 GMT
Well the end-of-campaign polls were most certainly wrong. The last few had the NDP ahead by about 3% but instead the Sask Party dominated the popular vote by 13.5%. However, from where the NDP were, it's been a successful election, as whilst they were absolutely decimated in the rural areas (where the Sask Party ran up the popular vote numbers) they swept Regina and lost out on just 2 ridings in Saskatoon. The Sask Party super-majority that has lasted 17 years is at least over, and the NDP will come out with their strongest caucus since 2007. There is a pathway now for 2028 - grab the last two Saskatoon ridings, win the two Prince Albert ridings (they look like narrowly missing out on Prince Albert Northcote), and then you're looking at a wildcard like Moose Jaw Wakamow. Gets you a bare NDP majority. In the meantime, the Sask government will be almost exclusively rural-based. A sharp divide now in Saskatchewan politics - feels like an alternative universe now where the NDP where they could win rural ridings just as much as urban ones. There are constituency names, and then there are Canadian constituency names. My favourite Canadian place name is Head-Smashed-In-Buffalo-Jump, but unfortunately that’s not the name of a constituency. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 29, 2024 16:02:26 GMT
The NDP run a very good campaign, my brain can’t comprehend how the people in charge of the NDP in the Prairies are technically in the same party as the nutters in BC. Shame that their opponents in BC were also nutters eh. In context of Canadian politics? I don’t disagree. BC is a ridiculously polarised province, especially white voters. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 29, 2024 16:19:48 GMT
It remains a great shame that Dave Barrett was not elected federal NDP leader in 1988. Yes, he would have been almost as much of a disaster as McLaughlin, but 'Western Alienation with Bennite Characteristics' would at least have been funny.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2024 16:35:06 GMT
There are constituency names, and then there are Canadian constituency names. My favourite Canadian place name is Head-Smashed-In-Buffalo-Jump, but unfortunately that’s not the name of a constituency. Do you know the poetry of Robert W Service? |
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Post by redvers on Oct 29, 2024 16:40:15 GMT
It remains a great shame that Dave Barrett was not elected federal NDP leader in 1988. Yes, he would have been almost as much of a disaster as McLaughlin, but 'Western Alienation with Bennite Characteristics' would at least have been funny.Barrett would have been fighting against a big wave but at least he diagnosed the impending disconnect between the NDP and its non-urban base |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 29, 2024 16:49:06 GMT
My favourite Canadian place name is Head-Smashed-In-Buffalo-Jump, but unfortunately that’s not the name of a constituency. Do you know the poetry of Robert W Service? Didn't Dangerous Dan McGrew used to be a member of the Forum?
"He looked like a man with a foot in the grave and scarcely the strength of a louse,
Yet he tilted a poke of dust on the bar, and he called for drinks for the house'.
And does anyone else remember the programme made around Service's poetry which starred Fulton Mackay. I'm trying to track it down
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 29, 2024 17:01:15 GMT
It remains a great shame that Dave Barrett was not elected federal NDP leader in 1988. Yes, he would have been almost as much of a disaster as McLaughlin, but 'Western Alienation with Bennite Characteristics' would at least have been funny.Barrett would have been fighting against a big wave but at least he diagnosed the impending disconnect between the NDP and its non-urban base The Quebec wing had announced they would break off if he won. |
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Post by redvers on Oct 29, 2024 17:29:35 GMT
Barrett would have been fighting against a big wave but at least he diagnosed the impending disconnect between the NDP and its non-urban base The Quebec wing had announced they would break off if he won. Oh the humanity |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 29, 2024 17:33:26 GMT
The Quebec wing had announced they would break off if he won. Oh the humanity His opposition to the Meech Lake agreement to amend the Constitution was a deal-breaker (in fact, the Quebec wing was trying to convince Bob Rae to run and supported McDonough when he didn't). Barrett probably learnt from that, as he supported the replacement Charlottetown agreeemnt with great reluctrance instead. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 29, 2024 18:35:36 GMT
My favourite Canadian place name is Head-Smashed-In-Buffalo-Jump, but unfortunately that’s not the name of a constituency. Do you know the poetry of Robert W Service? I have occasionally come across some of his poems, but not much (i.e. not enough to know what the connection might be) |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 29, 2024 20:36:36 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 29, 2024 21:22:51 GMT
What on earth are the BQ thinking? Surely they don't want a Conservative government, or are they gambling on a short campaign outfoxing Pierre Poilievre? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 29, 2024 21:55:48 GMT
What on earth are the BQ thinking? Surely they don't want a Conservative government, or are they gambling on a short campaign outfoxing Pierre Poilievre? They want their ruinous 10% increase in pensions for people aged 65 to 74, clearly because of their geriatric base. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 29, 2024 22:02:14 GMT
What on earth are the BQ thinking? Surely they don't want a Conservative government, or are they gambling on a short campaign outfoxing Pierre Poilievre? They want their ruinous 10% increase in pensions for people aged 65 to 74, clearly because of their geriatric base. I see another Western nation is falling for the stupid path of unsustainably appeasing a small section of the electorate at massive cost to the nation. |
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