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Post by robert1 on Sept 17, 2024 10:21:35 GMT
Bloomberg reporting Trudeau defeat in Montreal, saying it is significant.
Any experts on Canadian elections?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 17, 2024 12:27:25 GMT
Bloomberg reporting Trudeau defeat in Montreal, saying it is significant. Any experts on Canadian elections? So what seat was he standing in?  (seriously, I *would* say Liberals - everyone knows who their leader is anyway) The other byelection was an NDP hold in a seat the Tories were given a chance of gaining given current polls. Singh's recent distancing from the Liberals may have helped. |
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Post by robert1 on Sept 17, 2024 13:48:20 GMT
The seat is LaSalle-Emard-Verdun which was narrowly taken by Bloc Quebecois. Result is on Elections Canada website. I was wondering if anyone knew the background to the loss of this apparently 'long held' seat and the implications.
Would recommend the Elections Canada website for this by-election. There were, it appears, some 70 non affiliated and independent candidates plus the Rhinoceros Party etc
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 17, 2024 13:50:35 GMT
Bloomberg reporting Trudeau defeat in Montreal, saying it is significant. Any experts on Canadian elections? So what seat was he standing in? (seriously, I *would* say Liberals - everyone knows who their leader is anyway) The other byelection was an NDP hold in a seat the Tories were given a chance of gaining given current polls. Singh's recent distancing from the Liberals may have helped. I am not sure about the latter: En passant i saw somewhere at Twitter, that Singh's numbers have deterioriated (but this had begun already before his announcement, iiirc) and wikipedia shows 2 opinionPolls since the 6th, which have him unchanged (concerning "Best PM"). |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 17, 2024 14:21:01 GMT
The seat is LaSalle-Emard-Verdun which was narrowly taken by Bloc Quebecois. Result is on Elections Canada website. I was wondering if anyone knew the background to the loss of this apparently 'long held' seat and the implications. Would recommend the Elections Canada website for this by-election. There were, it appears, some 70 non affiliated and independent candidates plus the Rhinoceros Party etc It's a very bad result for the Liberals. That's the real story rather than the Bloc winning (in the same way as the Manitoba by-election was more about the significant Tory vote rise rather than the NDP just holding on). Compared to earlier in the parliament when the Liberals poor poll numbers weren't backed up in by-election performance, that's now catching up with them and their performances have been dire (and the Tory's correspondingly very positive results). |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 17, 2024 17:10:03 GMT
The seat is LaSalle-Emard-Verdun which was narrowly taken by Bloc Quebecois. Result is on Elections Canada website. I was wondering if anyone knew the background to the loss of this apparently 'long held' seat and the implications. Would recommend the Elections Canada website for this by-election. There were, it appears, some 70 non affiliated and independent candidates plus the Rhinoceros Party etc The Rhinoceros party? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 17, 2024 17:25:17 GMT
The seat is LaSalle-Emard-Verdun which was narrowly taken by Bloc Quebecois. Result is on Elections Canada website. I was wondering if anyone knew the background to the loss of this apparently 'long held' seat and the implications. Would recommend the Elections Canada website for this by-election. There were, it appears, some 70 non affiliated and independent candidates plus the Rhinoceros Party etc The Rhinoceros party? It's been around on and off since the '60s. They're sort of their equivalent to the OMRLP. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinoceros_Party |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 17, 2024 17:27:33 GMT
"The party claimed to be the spiritual descendants of Cacareco, a Brazilian rhinoceros who was "elected" member of São Paulo's city council in 1958"
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 19, 2024 19:46:15 GMT
Sure, we shouldn't read too much into the 1 byElection of Elmwood-Transcona - especially, when NDP-Manitoba is still in its honeyMoon -, but it should be worrying for the CPC, that NDP did not decrease a lot. Seems, its leader appeals mostly to those, who are ideologically anyWay closer to his rightliberal ("neo-liberal"="libertarian") ideoLogy: the Blue Liberals (a la suburban Toronto).
ToDay will have been a provincial byElection in Ontario: Bay-of-Quinte, far east of Toronto; the CPC got 50% last time, this time the Lib.s could come close (despite the federal climate).
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Post by redvers on Sept 19, 2024 19:49:23 GMT
Three provincial general elections incoming next month (all in just over a week) in Saskatchewan (looking very tight between the usual suspects), New Brunswick (which is looking like doing a normal New Brunswick where the incumbent government, red or blue, doesn't last long) and BC where the not-NDP situation has had an upheaval not seen since the demise of Social Credit. Should be fun! New Brunswick election called for October 21st. Recent polls look heavy on just one pollster, sure we'll get a spread soon enough. Higgs has proved more Conservative than Progressive. And he hasn't exactly been Francophone New Brunswick's greatest friend, so a small Liberal lead in the polls may mean nothing if they're just racking up heavy leads in Acadia. I would still be shocked if the Saskatchewan election ends up anywhere close. Only a couple of polls have shown the NDP with a lead, and a very narrow one at that, whilst all the others suggest a whopping Sask Party win. If if the NDP and Sask Party are close in the popular vote, it could just mean the NDP are building up huge leads in already NDP-leaning bits of Regina and Saskatoon. Still, we're probably looking at an end of the Sask Party super-majorities and something resembling a decent-sized NDP opposition, ready for a more serious chance in 2028. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 20, 2024 2:08:04 GMT
Bay of Quinte result with all 87 precincts reporting:
Tory 14,430 38.7%
Liberal 12,428 33.3%
NDP 8,607 23.1%
Green 1,186 3.2%
Tyler Allsopp is the new MPP. John Turmel was one of the other three candidates. Turnout was 38.5%
Standings in the legislature: Conservative 79, NDP 28, Liberal 9, Independent 6, Green 2
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 20, 2024 16:57:24 GMT
Bay of Quinte result with all 87 precincts reporting: Tory 14,430 38.7% Liberal 12,428 33.3% NDP 8,607 23.1% Green 1,186 3.2% Tyler Allsopp is the new MPP. John Turmel was one of the other three candidates. Turnout was 38.5% Standings in the legislature: Conservative 79, NDP 28, Liberal 9, Independent 6, Green 2 Better for the Tories than in the sole opinionPoll, that has it neckToNeck - nonetheless another sign, that the OntarioLiberals are really back. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Sept 20, 2024 18:28:10 GMT
Bay of Quinte result with all 87 precincts reporting: Tory 14,430 38.7% Liberal 12,428 33.3% NDP 8,607 23.1% Green 1,186 3.2% Tyler Allsopp is the new MPP. John Turmel was one of the other three candidates. Turnout was 38.5% Standings in the legislature: Conservative 79, NDP 28, Liberal 9, Independent 6, Green 2 Better for the Tories than in the sole opinionPoll, that has it neckToNeck - nonetheless another sign, that the OntarioLiberals are really back. Indeed. That seat count from 2022 disguises the fact that the Liberals were ahead of the NDP in the popular vote. It occurs to me that last week's federal results mean this is the first time in a decade that either the BQ or PQ has held more than one seat on Montréal island. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 3, 2024 0:51:02 GMT
338 is now forecasting a one seat majority for the Conservatives in the British Columbia election on 19th October. 338canada.com/bc/ |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Oct 8, 2024 7:37:47 GMT
I'm sure this is fine, there will be no consequences from allowing this kind of thing to grow and fester in Canada...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 18, 2024 16:11:06 GMT
Here are targetList based on the 2020-results (unfortunately i found no notionals for the new boundaries). To handle the new situation on the right Lib.s, Libert.s, Chr.Heritage are added to the Cons.s:  As the vote for TheGreens might vote partly for NDP a version with both parties combined:  Targets for TheGreens vs. - NDP:  - Cons.:  There is a huge hiatus between the opinionPolls using IVR (MainStreet, partly Pollara), which see the Cons.s ahead, and the others, which appear to mirror the political mood better (in my opinion). |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 20, 2024 1:17:50 GMT
Eric Grenier, Canadian polling expert, is running a live stream from about 4am UK time on the British Columbian election.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2024 7:37:39 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2024 11:05:04 GMT
There is a huge hiatus between the opinionPolls using IVR (MainStreet, partly Pollara), which see the Cons.s ahead, and the others, which appear to mirror the political mood better (in my opinion). Finally Pollara or Ipsos, which used a mixture of IVR & OnLine or OnLine & Phone, performed best. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2024 11:28:03 GMT
BC-Cons. nearly winning on the coatTails of the federal brand, shows, that even in Canada regional elections are less detached from national trends than the public assumes. (What is anyWay obvious, when having a look, how many provinces have been ruled by Cons. under Trudeau jr..)
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