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Post by batman on May 16, 2024 21:16:22 GMT
A contact I have from the CLP has no doubt whatsoever that Corbyn will 'walk it' as an Independent - and seriously doubts that the official Labour candidate will even be runner-up. Well, who do they think would come 2nd? The Tories who are massively unpopular, the Lib Dems who will be struggling for 10%, the Greens who would be expected to be squeezed from their natural support, Reform? the Greens would be the only party with the remotest chance of doing it, but they wouldn't of course. They are the only party to have won council seats in the constituency in the last few elections apart from Labour |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 16, 2024 21:19:07 GMT
I suppose if we had a Rochdale like result where labour lost like 80% or it's vote 3rd is possible. Though that be collapsing to 3rd rather than being beaten to 2nd
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 16, 2024 21:21:11 GMT
Of course he still hasn’t announced an independent bid has he?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 16, 2024 21:22:29 GMT
I suspect that's exactly what they'll do. I doubt it, I suspect Christian Wolmar and Paul Mason will be shortlisted What is the appeal of Wolmar? He comes across as an obsessive who can't play nicely with the other children. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 16, 2024 21:31:34 GMT
I doubt it, I suspect Christian Wolmar and Paul Mason will be shortlisted What is the appeal of Wolmar? He comes across as an obsessive who can't play nicely with the other children. I think that is a tad harsh on both counts. Don't think he's a great candidate though. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 16, 2024 23:22:18 GMT
I suppose if we had a Rochdale like result where labour lost like 80% or it's vote 3rd is possible. Though that be collapsing to 3rd rather than being beaten to 2nd Labour lost 100% of the vote in Rochdale on account of not having an endorsed candidate |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 17, 2024 8:14:00 GMT
I suppose if we had a Rochdale like result where labour lost like 80% or it's vote 3rd is possible. Though that be collapsing to 3rd rather than being beaten to 2nd Labour lost 100% of the vote in Rochdale on account of not having an endorsed candidate there were people who still voted Labour though. 2k people didn't vote for Azar as an independent because he was such a great guy |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on May 17, 2024 8:28:35 GMT
Of course he still hasn’t announced an independent bid has he? I think it depends whether the Labour candidate will be acceptable - it's clearly a rightwing candidate, then Jeremy will stand (and win). |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 17, 2024 8:30:49 GMT
Of course he still hasn’t announced an independent bid has he? I think it depends whether the Labour candidate will be acceptable - it's clearly a rightwing candidate, then Jeremy will stand (and win). And die or retire, when Labour can simply win the seat back and use it as lobby fodder |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 17, 2024 8:38:09 GMT
Corbyn supporters have, behind the scenes, been preparing for an Independent candidacy - but the man himself can't engage too closely with it, or else he will be automatically excluded and lose his ability to go to local members and branches to get support. The recent removal of access to Labour Party membership and campaigning databases was apparently because of suspicions it was being used to plan an Independent campaign - something which would need a lot of logistical arrangements which are found automatically through the party.
It is possible Corbyn himself will not go ahead with it, but there is an issue over that because everyone knows whoever is selected by the Labour Party, however left they are, is going to get an absolute monstering by devoted Corbyn fans (mostly outside the party). That prospect will deter all but the bravest, and especially local candidates. It would be a lot more difficult for Corbyn to stand against a locally-based, left-aligned Labour candidate, and he might stand down - but will there be any credible such candidates willing to volunteer to go through that treatment?
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 17, 2024 9:14:38 GMT
Well, who do they think would come 2nd? The Tories who are massively unpopular, the Lib Dems who will be struggling for 10%, the Greens who would be expected to be squeezed from their natural support, Reform? the Greens would be the only party with the remotest chance of doing it, but they wouldn't of course. They are the only party to have won council seats in the constituency in the last few elections apart from Labour Most normal Green voters would in this situation want to vote for Corbyn as an independent candidate, so the only viable other party for 2nd place would be Conservative. Unless there is a random local David Tully for the purpose |
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Post by batman on May 17, 2024 9:38:35 GMT
Of course he still hasn’t announced an independent bid has he? I think it depends whether the Labour candidate will be acceptable - it's clearly a rightwing candidate, then Jeremy will stand (and win). it's unlikely that a candidate of the Right would get selected in that seat. I don't see Christian Wolmar (who perhaps is soft left rather than Labour To Win right) getting it. |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 17, 2024 10:30:28 GMT
Corbyn supporters have, behind the scenes, been preparing for an Independent candidacy - but the man himself can't engage too closely with it, or else he will be automatically excluded and lose his ability to go to local members and branches to get support. The recent removal of access to Labour Party membership and campaigning databases was apparently because of suspicions it was being used to plan an Independent campaign - something which would need a lot of logistical arrangements which are found automatically through the party. It is possible Corbyn himself will not go ahead with it, but there is an issue over that because everyone knows whoever is selected by the Labour Party, however left they are, is going to get an absolute monstering by devoted Corbyn fans (mostly outside the party). That prospect will deter all but the bravest, and especially local candidates. It would be a lot more difficult for Corbyn to stand against a locally-based, left-aligned Labour candidate, and he might stand down - but will there be any credible such candidates willing to volunteer to go through that treatment? decent analysis there. Can't disagree with much of that tbh. Clearly lots of people on the left outside the party do want him to stand even though he won't |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 17, 2024 10:32:55 GMT
I think it depends whether the Labour candidate will be acceptable - it's clearly a rightwing candidate, then Jeremy will stand (and win). it's unlikely that a candidate of the Right would get selected in that seat. I don't see Christian Wolmar (who perhaps is soft left rather than Labour To Win right) getting it. I'd have thought he's more likely than Paul Mason or the fella who runs IVF clinics |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 21, 2024 20:36:41 GMT
London Assembly member Sem Moema has applied to this selection. She was previously thought to be one of the hopefuls for Hackney North. Other applicants not yet mentioned in the thread include Shreya Nanda, who works for the Social Market Foundation Margaret Greer, an Enfield Cllr backed by Unison Harry Spencer www.voteharry.com |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 21, 2024 20:44:59 GMT
London Assembly member Sem Moema has applied to this selection. She was previously thought to be one of the hopefuls for Hackney North. Other applicants not yet mentioned in the thread include Shreya Nanda, who works for the Social Market Foundation Margaret Greer, an Enfield Cllr backed by Unison Harry Spencer www.voteharry.comSem currently sits on the national constitutional committee I think |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on May 22, 2024 17:02:20 GMT
Labour to impose a candidate here?
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Post by batman on May 22, 2024 17:13:16 GMT
undoubtedly. CLPs will not have time to have proper selection procedures now. The same will apply to all parties in seats where they haven't selected
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2024 17:16:08 GMT
Labour to impose a candidate here? |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on May 22, 2024 17:49:13 GMT
And Corbyn will have to make a decision soon
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