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Post by matureleft on May 16, 2024 10:30:52 GMT
While not suggesting that that CLP member is definitely wrong, I'd expect feelings to be reasonably strong within the CLP on this, sufficiently so as to colour his or her opinion a great deal.
I'm sure he does a solid job as a constituency MP generally, but he's certainly had some criticism over his approach to the child abuse scandal in Islington Council's care services.
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right
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Post by right on May 16, 2024 11:02:07 GMT
A contact I have from the CLP has no doubt whatsoever that Corbyn will 'walk it' as an Independent - and seriously doubts that the official Labour candidate will even be runner-up. From last year, but still... On current polling Labour is going to get a big majority and can afford to bring in a moderate and lose with the expectation of snapping back next time, or they could bring in a Corbyn approved candidate and have a Marxist sitting on their benches for twenty years. And even if it is someone that Corbyn thinks he could approve, would that guarantee that he won't change his mind with all his acolytes who seem to want him to have one last run? Alternatively they could bring Corbyn back as quietly as possible (which would probably be hard) and let him serve a term and get the seat to a more pliable successor. The Irish machine controlled the constituency before Corbyn, and so this isn't a seat where the far left have unnatural strength. The safest route is probably to lose it this time by Labour HQ putting a centrist candidate in now and getting the seat back when Corbyn retires. EDIT: Just realised that the timetable means that the CLP will choose not Labour HQ. Doh. Yeah, they'll go as left as possible. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 16, 2024 11:02:33 GMT
I'd not touch it with a barge pole personally. Whatever Corbyn's short comings - and there are plenty - it seems to me that he has always had a good reputation as a constituency MP. If the reason for blocking his candidacy is that it wouldn't be good for him to be endorsed, then surely other MPs ought to find their positions in question as well? Tories or LDs have zero chance of winning Islington N, so the public have a free vote, without risking 'the other side' getting in. The reason is that someone without the party whip can’t be endorsed more than anything else surely? I know there’s a wider factional debate on the fairness of that in the first place but it‘s the logical conclusion Yes... you're right. I suppose I'm questioning out loud why Corbyn doesn't have the whip and others do... I don't suppose there is a palatable solution for Starmer really. He'd either have to re-admit JC and all what would come with that climb down, or risk losing the seat. But he'll win the GE, with a majority large enough to worry whether Corbyn votes with Labour in the Commons or not. |
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right
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Post by right on May 16, 2024 11:08:33 GMT
The reason is that someone without the party whip can’t be endorsed more than anything else surely? I know there’s a wider factional debate on the fairness of that in the first place but it‘s the logical conclusion Yes... you're right. I suppose I'm questioning out loud why Corbyn doesn't have the whip and others do... I don't suppose there is a palatable solution for Starmer really. He'd either have to re-admit JC and all what would come with that climb down, or risk losing the seat. But he'll win the GE, with a majority large enough to worry whether Corbyn votes with Labour in the Commons or not. Corbyn doesn't have the whip because anyone who did a decent amount of doorstepping in marginal constituencies in 2017 and 2019 will know that he produced an awful lot of Labour to Tory switchers and the Labour Party would quite like them back. Excluding him probably means about 10 seats, if not more - and a noisy fight in Islington North with a media circus could well mean more seats as switchers are shown that Starmer has excluded Corbyn. It's like Jean Marie Le Pen being excluded from the Front National, it makes little real difference but the potential can be assured that you're no longer one of the loons. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 16, 2024 11:33:52 GMT
The reason is that someone without the party whip can’t be endorsed more than anything else surely? I know there’s a wider factional debate on the fairness of that in the first place but it‘s the logical conclusion Yes... you're right. I suppose I'm questioning out loud why Corbyn doesn't have the whip and others do... I don't suppose there is a palatable solution for Starmer really. He'd either have to re-admit JC and all what would come with that climb down, or risk losing the seat. But he'll win the GE, with a majority large enough to worry whether Corbyn votes with Labour in the Commons or not. Starmer did put a condition on him getting the whip back ie retracting or apologising for the comments about antisemitism and he refused to meet it. I don’t comment on the rights or wrongs and whether there were wider motives at play, but clearly a leader can’t then backtrack in that situation or they’d look very weak |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 16, 2024 11:50:20 GMT
Yes... you're right. I suppose I'm questioning out loud why Corbyn doesn't have the whip and others do... I don't suppose there is a palatable solution for Starmer really. He'd either have to re-admit JC and all what would come with that climb down, or risk losing the seat. But he'll win the GE, with a majority large enough to worry whether Corbyn votes with Labour in the Commons or not. Starmer did put a condition on him getting the whip back ie retracting or apologising for the comments about antisemitism and he refused to meet it. I don’t comment on the rights or wrongs and whether there were wider motives at play, but clearly a leader can’t then backtrack in that situation or they’d look very weak the statement Jeremy put out was drafted jointly by Corbyn allies and one of Starmers staffers at the time. Corbyn can't be readmitted because there were Labour MPs that made it clear they'd leave if he did. Starmer didn't want to lose high profile Labour MPs over readmitting Jeremy |
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right
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Post by right on May 16, 2024 11:55:21 GMT
Starmer did put a condition on him getting the whip back ie retracting or apologising for the comments about antisemitism and he refused to meet it. I don’t comment on the rights or wrongs and whether there were wider motives at play, but clearly a leader can’t then backtrack in that situation or they’d look very weak the statement Jeremy put out was drafted jointly by Corbyn allies and one of Starmers staffers at the time. Corbyn can't be readmitted because there were Labour MPs that made it clear they'd leave if he did. Starmer didn't want to lose high profile Labour MPs over readmitting Jeremy Interesting, didn't know that. Which ones? |
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Post by andrea on May 16, 2024 11:57:58 GMT
EDIT: Just realised that the timetable means that the CLP will choose not Labour HQ. Doh. Yeah, they'll go as left as possible. The CLP membership will select from a shortlist drawn up by a NEC panel. |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 16, 2024 11:59:54 GMT
the statement Jeremy put out was drafted jointly by Corbyn allies and one of Starmers staffers at the time. Corbyn can't be readmitted because there were Labour MPs that made it clear they'd leave if he did. Starmer didn't want to lose high profile Labour MPs over readmitting Jeremy Interesting, didn't know that. Which ones? Simon Fletcher who was Starmer's Strategic Advisor until May 2021 |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 16, 2024 12:04:06 GMT
Corbyn cannot given the whip back because of some of the things he has said - as it happens, about other topics - whilst whipless. Sometimes things are as simple as they look.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 16, 2024 12:05:08 GMT
Corbyn cannot given the whip back because of some of the things he has said - as it happens, about other topics - whilst whipless. Sometimes things are as simple as they look. the NATO letter probably was a nail in the coffin Though to clarify that Hamas are terrorists was clearly an attempt to avoid being suspended again |
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right
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Post by right on May 16, 2024 12:36:39 GMT
EDIT: Just realised that the timetable means that the CLP will choose not Labour HQ. Doh. Yeah, they'll go as left as possible. The CLP membership will select from a shortlist drawn up by a NEC panel. So they could present the CLP with a slate of centrists? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 16, 2024 13:57:58 GMT
The CLP membership will select from a shortlist drawn up by a NEC panel. So they could present the CLP with a slate of centrists? I suspect that's exactly what they'll do. |
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right
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Post by right on May 16, 2024 14:03:11 GMT
So they could present the CLP with a slate of centrists? I suspect that's exactly what they'll do.  |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2024 14:06:02 GMT
It'd be funny if David Miliband or Tony Blair applied here...
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right
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Post by right on May 16, 2024 14:46:00 GMT
It'd be funny if David Miliband or Tony Blair applied here... Might be a good place for an all Tory defector shortlist |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 16, 2024 15:59:53 GMT
So they could present the CLP with a slate of centrists? I suspect that's exactly what they'll do. I doubt it, I suspect Christian Wolmar and Paul Mason will be shortlisted |
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Post by batman on May 16, 2024 20:19:30 GMT
The reason is that someone without the party whip can’t be endorsed more than anything else surely? I know there’s a wider factional debate on the fairness of that in the first place but it‘s the logical conclusion Yes... you're right. I suppose I'm questioning out loud why Corbyn doesn't have the whip and others do... I don't suppose there is a palatable solution for Starmer really. He'd either have to re-admit JC and all what would come with that climb down, or risk losing the seat. But he'll win the GE, with a majority large enough to worry whether Corbyn votes with Labour in the Commons or not. Starmer (I get tired of explaining this to people, but it's very much the case) cannot decide personally what to do about this. He can only express an opinion but the whole idea of Labour's not-so-long-ago disciplinary problems was that the leader should not stick his nose into such matters. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 16, 2024 20:31:50 GMT
A contact I have from the CLP has no doubt whatsoever that Corbyn will 'walk it' as an Independent - and seriously doubts that the official Labour candidate will even be runner-up. Well, who do they think would come 2nd? The Tories who are massively unpopular, the Lib Dems who will be struggling for 10%, the Greens who would be expected to be squeezed from their natural support, Reform? |
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graham
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Post by graham on May 16, 2024 20:46:25 GMT
A contact I have from the CLP has no doubt whatsoever that Corbyn will 'walk it' as an Independent - and seriously doubts that the official Labour candidate will even be runner-up. Well, who do they think would come 2nd? The Tories who are massively unpopular, the Lib Dems who will be struggling for 10%, the Greens who would be expected to be squeezed from their natural support, Reform? I did not press that point. I don't agree with his forecast - but do expect Corbyn to win comfortably. |
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