Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 1:48:30 GMT
Unfortunately for Corbyn you have to stick with the electorate you're given, can't just bus 'em in like you do with your coterie. Given? A lot of the electorate here seem imported essentially. That helps Corbyn. If you believe that London as a 'foreign city', then Finsbury Park ticks that box well. I think the next MP after Corbyn might be an ethnic minority Councillor from somewhere in the seat. Tufnell Park and Highbury are very different from the rest of it. Labour should hope Putin nukes the area around Finsbury Park station and the park itself if they want to win here. |
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jul 1, 2024 7:54:53 GMT
I don't believe a poster has swayed a single voter from changing their vote or a non voter being inspired to vote. A load of nonsense, those who stick up a board or poster are v mainly about sycophants sucking up to the local party in hope of a favour, cllr opportunity etc etc Firstly, that definitely isn't the case for most people who put up a poster, and a bit of a needlessly nasty slur if I may say so. They are simply solid supporters of a party or candidate who've been asked to do so. Secondly, whilst I'm a little sceptical about efficacy of posters versus the bother of doing them, they do have a role in reinforcing the tactical message. That's why the Lib Dems use them a lot (a visible reminder that the particular area isn't the more normal Tory/Labour contest) and I guess there is also some value for Corbyn to remind people he's an independent this time so don't vote for the rose (I know people on here will think "everyone knows that" but you'd be surprised). |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 1, 2024 8:07:11 GMT
I don't believe a poster has swayed a single voter from changing their vote or a non voter being inspired to vote. A load of nonsense, those who stick up a board or poster are v mainly about sycophants sucking up to the local party in hope of a favour, cllr opportunity etc etc Firstly, that definitely isn't the case for most people who put up a poster, and a bit of a needlessly nasty slur if I may say so. They are simply solid supporters of a party or candidate who've been asked to do so. Secondly, whilst I'm a little sceptical about efficacy of posters versus the bother of doing them, they do have a role in reinforcing the tactical message. That's why the Lib Dems use them a lot (a visible reminder that the particular area isn't the more normal Tory/Labour contest) and I guess there is also some value for Corbyn to remind people he's an independent this time so don't vote for the rose (I know people on here will think "everyone knows that" but you'd be surprised). Posters certainly aren't about hoping for a favour, still less a councillor opportunity (!). The householders are broadly strong supporters willing to show their sympathies to their neighbourhood. That last element used to prompt mass displays in extreme instances - most people displayed a poster so a person may have felt some obligation to do the same. I've fought a few elections where Labour (declared) support was so solid and posters so numerous that there might have seemed some obligation among less enthusiastic residents. But that was in the 1980s (particularly on council estates before RTB) and early 1990s when poster displaying was more common anyway. When posters are numerous it undoubtedly gives a message and I can certainly see why LDs use them, exactly as you say. |
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Post by islington on Jul 1, 2024 8:19:42 GMT
Unfortunately for Corbyn you have to stick with the electorate you're given, can't just bus 'em in like you do with your coterie. Given? A lot of the electorate here seem imported essentially. That helps Corbyn. If you believe that London as a 'foreign city', then Finsbury Park ticks that box well. I think the next MP after Corbyn might be an ethnic minority Councillor from somewhere in the seat. Tufnell Park and Highbury are very different from the rest of it. Labour should hope Putin nukes the area around Finsbury Park station and the park itself if they want to win here. Finsbury Park (the park itself) isn't in Islington N, it's in Hornsey - as are the surrounding residential areas to the north and west of the park. The areas to its south will now be in Tottenham (formerly in Hackney N). Only a relatively small area by the park's southern tip is in Islington N. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 8:28:04 GMT
Given? A lot of the electorate here seem imported essentially. That helps Corbyn. If you believe that London as a 'foreign city', then Finsbury Park ticks that box well. I think the next MP after Corbyn might be an ethnic minority Councillor from somewhere in the seat. Tufnell Park and Highbury are very different from the rest of it. Labour should hope Putin nukes the area around Finsbury Park station and the park itself if they want to win here. Finsbury Park (the park itself) isn't in Islington N, it's in Hornsey - as are the surrounding residential areas to the north and west of the park. The areas to its south will now be in Tottenham (formerly in Hackney N). Only a relatively small area by the park's southern tip is in Islington N. Which area includes the startion, the tube station, the high street, most of the actual residential area known as 'Finsbury Park' - and all contained in the ward also called 'Finsbury Park'. I'm far from @weld's strongest defender on here, but it hardly seems unreasonable to be discussing 'Finsbury Park' in the context of the different areas which make up this constituency.. |
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Post by islington on Jul 1, 2024 9:45:27 GMT
Finsbury Park (the park itself) isn't in Islington N, it's in Hornsey - as are the surrounding residential areas to the north and west of the park. The areas to its south will now be in Tottenham (formerly in Hackney N). Only a relatively small area by the park's southern tip is in Islington N. Which area includes the startion, the tube station, the high street, most of the actual residential area known as 'Finsbury Park' - and all contained in the ward also called 'Finsbury Park'. I'm far from @weld's strongest defender on here, but it hardly seems unreasonable to be discussing 'Finsbury Park' in the context of the different areas which make up this constituency.. All of which is true, but he did go out of his way to say 'the park itself' so I think it was fair to me to point out that the park isn't in the seat. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 9:56:56 GMT
True, although that was only with respect to nuking it and doing that would destroy most of the surrounding area including much of this constituency (with the added bous of destroying the other constituencies bordering on the park)
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 1, 2024 10:08:01 GMT
Finsbury Park (the park itself) isn't in Islington N, it's in Hornsey - as are the surrounding residential areas to the north and west of the park. The areas to its south will now be in Tottenham (formerly in Hackney N). Only a relatively small area by the park's southern tip is in Islington N. Which area includes the startion, the tube station, the high street, most of the actual residential area known as 'Finsbury Park' - and all contained in the ward also called 'Finsbury Park'. I'm far from @weld 's strongest defender on here, but it hardly seems unreasonable to be discussing 'Finsbury Park' in the context of the different areas which make up this constituency.. On this one, I'm afraid that I largely have to line up with islington . It is indeed reasonable in this context to use 'Finsbury Park' to refer to the ward, but in that case, the park and at least the eastern edge of the residential area are irrelevant. The eastern boundary of Islington North (and Islington borough) runs along Stroud Green Road north of Seven Sisters Road and Blackstock Road south of Seven Sisters Road - the other side of Stroud Green Road is in Hornsey and Friern Barnet constituency (and Haringey borough), and of Blackstock Road in Tottenham constituency (and Hackney borough), following the implementation of the recent BCE review. The park and a small corner of the residential area (separated from the park by the Kings Cross railway line) are in the former, and the eastern edge of the residential area in the latter. And while (apart from the park itself being essentially uninhabited, at least by anything eligible to vote) I would not claim there to be a sudden demographic transition at these boundaries, none of the neighbouring wards across these boundaries seem to show any more similarity to the 'foreign city' demographics apparently being referred to by @weld than does the rest of Islington North. Of course, by the standards of much of England, all those wards, together with the whole of Islington North, have 'foreign city' demographics - but by the same standards, so does most of London, particularly (but far from exclusively) north of the Thames. And, taking this last point further, I am entirely mystified by @weld 's insistence that these characteristics of Finsbury Park ward make Islington North untenable. Because while Finsbury Park ward may be somewhat different demographically from, for instance, Tufnell Park or Highbury wards, these differences are far from extreme, at least by London standards. There are wards in other parts of London from Tufnell Park and Highbury look little less 'foreign' than Finsbury Park, and conversely ones which make Finsbury Park look little more 'foreign' than Tufnell Park or Highbury. I am probably being extremely foolish in saying this, but judging by the threat that, according to @weld , Finsbury Park poses to Labour in Islington North, one would expect Labour to have little chance of even saving its deposits in, for instance, Edmonton and Winchmore Hill or West Ham and Beckton - but nothing I have seen on this forum or elsewhere suggests that Labour is in danger of even coming anywhere close to losing either of these seats. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jul 1, 2024 10:51:27 GMT
This is getting rather pedantic. We can - I hope - all read maps: the area known as "Finsbury Park" is split between three constituencies. However, take it from someone who lived there for years, it is not "only a relatively small area by the park's southern tip [that] is in Islington N", but a significant proportion of what most local people would ordinarily consider Finsbury Park falls within the constituency.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 1, 2024 10:54:40 GMT
This is getting rather pedantic. We can - I hope - all read maps: the area known as "Finsbury Park" is split between three constituencies. However, take is from someone who lived there for years, it not "only a relatively small area by the park's southern tip [that] is in Islington N", but a significant proportion of what most local people would ordinarily consider Finsbury Park falls within the constituency. |
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Post by froome on Jul 1, 2024 11:10:25 GMT
I was walking around Islington North for a while today, looking for signs of the election campaign. I saw posters saying "Vote Corbyn" in several shops and in dozens of private homes' windows, and literally none for the Labour Party. I saw no campaigners or canvassers. On the pavement I found a bedraggled and soggy leaflet for the Conservative candidate, who rather optimistically portrays herself as the "change" candidate (e.g. "Did you know there are ZERO Conservative Councillors in Islington Council? Imogen will be your strong local advocate, holding the Labour-run Council to account!"). I am experienced enough to know that the number of visible posters for candidates is not necessarily a reliable indicator of the level of support (or votes) for a candidate or party, but it did make me wonder why or how the Labour Party hasn't managed to work up a poster operation in response; and the ratio of number of locations where I saw posters (Corbyn 28, Labour 0) is overwhelming enough to make me think that Corbyn is going to win. I was in Islington North over 3 weeks ago for a couple of hours, so right at the start of the campaign when there were very few posters around. However, I did see 2 for Labour, both in a very well off area, along with 3 for Corbyn in a less well off one. On the poster debate more generally, we know by the number of people who told us they had been finally convinced to vote Green here in Bath in 2015 when we had very large numbers of boards and posters up, that they can be effective where you are generally thought to be unable to win and therefore not voting for by your potential supporters. |
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Post by norflondon on Jul 1, 2024 12:22:53 GMT
Lab still a narrow favourite in odds lists.
A shattering defeat for the left if Jeremy fails. And may be seen as a thumbs up for continuing NHS privatisation.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 12:38:15 GMT
Poll here is very tight with nearly 100 votes cast!
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Post by arnieg on Jul 1, 2024 12:39:56 GMT
Poll here is very tight with nearly 100 votes cast! Even tighter now  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 15:51:48 GMT
Back to 50-50. I think there was another vote drop from Tollington and Fiinsbury Park. However, only 37% of the vote is in so CNN haven't called the race yet.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,685
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Post by right on Jul 2, 2024 10:55:58 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 2, 2024 15:16:41 GMT
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jul 4, 2024 17:15:13 GMT
Surely if you're trying to prove it is a two horse race (which to be fair it probably is) the right approach is to show the 'other parties' on a derisory share of the vote, thus showing that they Can't Win Here TM, rather than showing figures that ignore their existence entirely and thus doesn't show that they are not in contention?
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Post by norflondon on Jul 4, 2024 21:37:02 GMT
Exit poll
Conservative 131
Labour 410
SNP 10
Liberal Democrats 56
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 2
Reform 13
Others 19
...appears to be suggesting no independents winning
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,744
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Post by john07 on Jul 4, 2024 21:59:15 GMT
Exit poll Conservative 131 Labour 410 SNP 10 Liberal Democrats 56 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 2 Reform 13 Others 19 ...appears to be suggesting no independents winning Others could include the 18 Northern Ireland seats and one other. That could be one seat for Galloway or independents. |
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