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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 5:19:46 GMT
I have now seen a Feinstein sign in Camden Town. I guess if he has stupendous momentum here, there's a remote chance of a win:
FEINSTEIN 29%
STARMER 29%
LD 22%
CON 15%
OTH 5%
VAT on private school fees helps the Tories hold up well around Primrose Hill and similar areas where they have a bit of a vote, as well as triggering a Lib Dem revival in the areas they used to win here in the 2000s (Haverstock, Cantelowes etc), and animosity to HS2 work disruption dampens Labour's showing across the seat.
Feinstein, while running even with Starmer across the seat, pulls ahead in Bloomsbury, Holborn & Covent Garden and Regents Park, while losing St Pancras & Somers Town narrowly due to the Tories running a Bangladeshi candidate here who gets some votes based on that factor. The east-west split is reminiscent of how parts of the seat voted locally in the 2000s and (probably) in the 1959 GE when the Tories narrowly snatched Holborn & St Pancras South from Labour. Feinstein carries the old Holborn borough while Starmer edges him out in the former St Pancras wards of the constituency.
UCL, SOAS, and Birkbeck postal votes come in strongly for Feinstein.
The stoner vote comes out in force for Feinstein, not the Greens.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 17, 2024 7:31:30 GMT
Why do you waste your time churning out this kind of tissue of bollocks?
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 7:35:00 GMT
I’m afraid Pete is right. The idea that Feinstein could in any way meaningfully challenge Keir Starmer is so ridiculous that it is hard to quantify in its ridiculousness.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 17, 2024 8:13:13 GMT
I’m afraid Pete is right. The idea that Feinstein could in any way meaningfully challenge Keir Starmer is so ridiculous that it is hard to quantify in its ridiculousness. It's just silly. Feinstein I have a lot of time for, but obviously he couldn't win. There are a couple of seats - Dewsbury and Batley, maybe a Birmingham seat, Islington North - and they could win. Starmer will increase his vote because he is the party leader. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 17, 2024 9:12:45 GMT
Starmer is going to win by 30% minimum. Feinstein will get lucky to save his £500.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2024 9:51:13 GMT
I have now seen a Feinstein sign in Camden Town. I guess if he has stupendous momentum here, there's a remote chance of a win: FEINSTEIN 29% STARMER 29% LD 22% CON 15% OTH 5% VAT on private school fees helps the Tories hold up well around Primrose Hill and similar areas where they have a bit of a vote, as well as triggering a Lib Dem revival in the areas they used to win here in the 2000s (Haverstock, Cantelowes etc), and animosity to HS2 work disruption dampens Labour's showing across the seat. Feinstein, while running even with Starmer across the seat, pulls ahead in Bloomsbury, Holborn & Covent Garden and Regents Park, while losing St Pancras & Somers Town narrowly due to the Tories running a Bangladeshi candidate here who gets some votes based on that factor. The east-west split is reminiscent of how parts of the seat voted locally in the 2000s and (probably) in the 1959 GE when the Tories narrowly snatched Holborn & St Pancras South from Labour. Feinstein carries the old Holborn borough while Starmer edges him out in the former St Pancras wards of the constituency. UCL, SOAS, and Birkbeck postal votes come in strongly for Feinstein. The stoner vote comes out in force for Feinstein, not the Greens. There is a species of parasitic grub which lays its eggs on leaves which are eaten by snails. The larva from the egg grows to become a colourful worm which wriggles into the eye-stalk of the snail. It changes the snail’s behaviour by making it crawl on the upper side of the leaf (instead of the shaded bit underneath) so that it can be seen by predatory birds. The bird notices the bright colours of the worm wriggling inside the snail, grabs and eats the snail, and the parasitic worm continues the next stage of its life cycle by growing inside the bird and laying its eggs in the bird poo which ends up on the leaves for the next snail to eat. Have you been eating any unusual-looking leaves recently? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 17, 2024 10:05:09 GMT
I have now seen a Feinstein sign in Camden Town. I guess if he has stupendous momentum here, there's a remote chance of a win: FEINSTEIN 29% STARMER 29% LD 22% CON 15% OTH 5% VAT on private school fees helps the Tories hold up well around Primrose Hill and similar areas where they have a bit of a vote, as well as triggering a Lib Dem revival in the areas they used to win here in the 2000s (Haverstock, Cantelowes etc), and animosity to HS2 work disruption dampens Labour's showing across the seat. Feinstein, while running even with Starmer across the seat, pulls ahead in Bloomsbury, Holborn & Covent Garden and Regents Park, while losing St Pancras & Somers Town narrowly due to the Tories running a Bangladeshi candidate here who gets some votes based on that factor. The east-west split is reminiscent of how parts of the seat voted locally in the 2000s and (probably) in the 1959 GE when the Tories narrowly snatched Holborn & St Pancras South from Labour. Feinstein carries the old Holborn borough while Starmer edges him out in the former St Pancras wards of the constituency. UCL, SOAS, and Birkbeck postal votes come in strongly for Feinstein. The stoner vote comes out in force for Feinstein, not the Greens. There is a species of parasitic grub which lays its eggs on leaves which are eaten by snails. The larva from the egg grows to become a colourful worm which wriggles into the eye-stalk of the snail. It changes the snail’s behaviour by making it crawl on the upper side of the leaf (instead of the shaded bit underneath) so that it can be seen by predatory birds. The bird notices the bright colours of the worm wriggling inside the snail, grabs and eats the snail, and the parasitic worm continues the next stage of its life cycle by growing inside the bird and laying its eggs in the bird poo which ends up on the leaves for the next snail to eat. Have you been eating any unusual-looking leaves recently? This is a poor analogy as it implies that @weld talking shit represents a change of behaviour on his part |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 17, 2024 10:46:52 GMT
I’m afraid Pete is right. The idea that Feinstein could in any way meaningfully challenge Keir Starmer is so ridiculous that it is hard to quantify in its ridiculousness. It's just silly. Feinstein I have a lot of time for, but obviously he couldn't win. There are a couple of seats - Dewsbury and Batley, maybe a Birmingham seat, Islington North - and they could win. Starmer will increase his vote because he is the party leader. Indeed. By all means, people can speculate away in Islington North, Ladywood and Rochdale. But here? No way. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 17, 2024 11:07:23 GMT
What students for a July election? In any case, I'm sceptical he'd be the natural choice of protest vote here for students unhappy with Labour/Starmer over Gaza. The main beneficiary there would probably be the Green candidate; Feinstein's vote here will likely be most concentrated in Somers Town and other similar areas.
Is there any substantial evidence that students collectively follow the lead of the vocal minority (?) who are politically engaged to any significant degree? |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 17, 2024 11:11:24 GMT
In any case, I'm sceptical he'd be the natural choice of protest vote here for students unhappy with Labour/Starmer over Gaza. The main beneficiary there would probably be the Green candidate; Feinstein's vote here will likely be most concentrated in Somers Town and other similar areas.
Is there any substantial evidence that students collectively follow the lead of the vocal minority (?) who are politically engaged to any significant degree? In the Thatcher years didn't students almost exactly mirror the party shares in the national vote? And student unions were just as left wing then. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jun 17, 2024 11:13:19 GMT
I have now seen a Feinstein sign in Camden Town. I guess if he has stupendous momentum here, there's a remote chance of a win: FEINSTEIN 29% STARMER 29% LD 22% CON 15% OTH 5% VAT on private school fees helps the Tories hold up well around Primrose Hill and similar areas where they have a bit of a vote, as well as triggering a Lib Dem revival in the areas they used to win here in the 2000s (Haverstock, Cantelowes etc), and animosity to HS2 work disruption dampens Labour's showing across the seat. Feinstein, while running even with Starmer across the seat, pulls ahead in Bloomsbury, Holborn & Covent Garden and Regents Park, while losing St Pancras & Somers Town narrowly due to the Tories running a Bangladeshi candidate here who gets some votes based on that factor. The east-west split is reminiscent of how parts of the seat voted locally in the 2000s and (probably) in the 1959 GE when the Tories narrowly snatched Holborn & St Pancras South from Labour. Feinstein carries the old Holborn borough while Starmer edges him out in the former St Pancras wards of the constituency. UCL, SOAS, and Birkbeck postal votes come in strongly for Feinstein. The stoner vote comes out in force for Feinstein, not the Greens. With analysis like that you could be making life changing amounts of money from the bookies with pocket money stakes We'll all be kicking ourselves on the day after the election |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 11:13:20 GMT
Leading London liberal Labour luminary lollygagging - none of you have justified why Feinstein is simply a flash in the pan here. One of you suggested that Starmer's vote will automatically increase because he's leader? That didn't work out so well for Arthur Balfour in Manchester East in 1906, did it?
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 11:27:27 GMT
are you seriously trying to maintain that yours was a serious prediction? You might be a plausible writer of political novels, but you have no grip on political reality whatsoever. Starmer doesn't need to get a special leadership boost. He merely needs to get the natural Labour vote, most of which thinks he's a pretty decent local MP who happens to be the party leader as well. There just isn't the all-round hatred of him required for him to come remotely near losing his own seat.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 17, 2024 11:37:54 GMT
Leading London liberal Labour luminary lollygagging - none of you have justified why Feinstein is simply a flash in the pan here. One of you suggested that Starmer's vote will automatically increase because he's leader? That didn't work out so well for Arthur Balfour in Manchester East in 1906, did it? You already know that Arthur Balfour was crushed by the Liberals in the election in 1906, meanwhile Starmer is about to win in a near certain landslide in a constituency where Labour receive an almost embarrassingly high share of the vote. Therefore, could we please focus on actual psephology and predictions with some logic and reasoning behind them, rather than trolling? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 11:43:29 GMT
Leading London liberal Labour luminary lollygagging - none of you have justified why Feinstein is simply a flash in the pan here. One of you suggested that Starmer's vote will automatically increase because he's leader? That didn't work out so well for Arthur Balfour in Manchester East in 1906, did it? You already know that Arthur Balfour was crushed by the Liberals in the election in 1906, meanwhile Starmer is about to win in a near certain landslide in a constituency where Labour receive an almost embarrassingly high share of the vote. Therefore, could we please focus on actual psephology and predictions with some logic and reasoning behind them, rather than trolling? Sure but Labour is cratering in many urban areas - Rochdale, Leicester, Slough, Hackney, almost losing Batley & Spen. Shedding votes left right and centre in Camden Council by-elections. As I've said many times, this election is going to be like 2005 in urban areas, and 1997 in the rural and suburban areas, because of Gaza. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 17, 2024 11:47:52 GMT
In any case, I'm sceptical he'd be the natural choice of protest vote here for students unhappy with Labour/Starmer over Gaza. The main beneficiary there would probably be the Green candidate; Feinstein's vote here will likely be most concentrated in Somers Town and other similar areas.
Is there any substantial evidence that students collectively follow the lead of the vocal minority (?) who are politically engaged to any significant degree? As a current student, no, I haven't really observed anything personally that would suggest this. Related to this (though straying off the topic of this thread somewhat), I've never been convinced, for example, that students are the main reason for Green strength in Bristol Central (and Bristol West before it). Differential turnout between engaged and non-engaged students, however, may mean this doesn't matter much either way. In any case, a not insignificant proportion of politically active students are not *that* left-leaning (if at all), in spite of the general political stances of student's unions.
P.S. I guess I should clarify that my previous post was not about how students in general would vote.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 17, 2024 11:51:47 GMT
Yes, there's a habit in certain circles of forgetting that most students are just perfectly ordinary young people from ordinary backgrounds, with ordinary political views and with ordinary levels of political motivation for their age.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 12:27:34 GMT
Yes, there's a habit in certain circles of forgetting that most students are just perfectly ordinary young people from ordinary backgrounds, with ordinary political views and with ordinary levels of political motivation for their age. SOAS does have a lefty reputation. UCL and LSE are fairly left wing. I don't know about Birkbeck but a lot of them are slightly older so I'd guess more normal. It's a pity Andrew Feinstein hasn't made an ad like this chap or some Justice Democrat style campaign video: |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 17, 2024 14:08:51 GMT
Yes, there's a habit in certain circles of forgetting that most students are just perfectly ordinary young people from ordinary backgrounds, with ordinary political views and with ordinary levels of political motivation for their age. SOAS does have a lefty reputation. UCL and LSE are fairly left wing. I don't know about Birkbeck but a lot of them are slightly older so I'd guess more normal. Since Birkbeck only enrolls part-time students I wouldn't waste any time on looking at it. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 17, 2024 14:14:18 GMT
Yes, there's a habit in certain circles of forgetting that most students are just perfectly ordinary young people from ordinary backgrounds, with ordinary political views and with ordinary levels of political motivation for their age. SOAS does have a lefty reputation. UCL and LSE are fairly left wing. I don't know about Birkbeck but a lot of them are slightly older so I'd guess more normal. It's a pity Andrew Feinstein hasn't made an ad like this chap or some Justice Democrat style campaign video: Really? Its where you go if your only aim is to be rich. |
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