Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 19:40:02 GMT
Your overconfidence is your weakness vis-a-vis some London seats, my friend, no offence. I think you are dead wrong about this seat and Ilford North (wish-casting).
Whether other posters are right or not, I can't say. However you don't seem to get how difficult it is for Independents to win seats in this country, however much one would like them to.
Unfortunately your posting has been very very eccentric, almost to the stage that if you predict a winner of a seat I'd bet on the other contender.
Why is this? I think it is because, although you understand politics in the broadest sense, you haven't yet grasped the psephology of individual constituencies. How much internal dynamics, short term campaigning, long term campaigning, demographics, candidate quality, national trends all mix together in a cauldron to produce each individual result. I don't understand it half as well as many on here, which is why I read and try and learn. I suggest you try and realise that you need to do the same, because I believe you have the brains to understand psephology but you haven't quite got there yet. This is just my opinion and one I am happy for you to ignore, but if you do so it may mean people come to see you as an eccentric or worse a troll when you don't intend to be.
I'm biased because I have won under STV in student politics as an independent (twice). I also tend to obsess over things, such as this seat's fertility for Lib Dems. I am not a troll, but I am an attention seeker and I've never pretended to hide that fact on this website. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 5, 2024 17:25:24 GMT
Labour easily held this with the Liberal Democrats falling to 4th. So much for the VAT on private school fees effect.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 5, 2024 17:39:45 GMT
Labour easily held this with the Liberal Democrats falling to 3rd. So much for the VAT on private school fees effect. The Liberal Democrats were actually in fourth - behind Labour, Conservatives and Greens. |
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rcronald
Likud
Posts: 6,352
Member is Online
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 17:47:45 GMT
I did not expect the Tories to hang on to 2nd place here.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 1:58:48 GMT
What can I say about this result? Probably nothing insightful, but here goes.
The Greens surged in a by-election in Highgate in November (winning a formerly marginal seat by 30% so they always had potential to go up a lot here). Many thought Labour were safe as houses, and voted for the Greens as their preferred party.
This was one of the last places I thought Labour would gain vote share, and it's funny how Holborn & St Pancras and this seat converged in their Labour percentage, and Labour have a bigger lead here now, because of what Andrew Feinstein did (getting 1 in 6 votes in Holborn & St Pancras).
I overestimated how much VAT on school fees would harm Labour here - I guess a lot of those voters already vote against Labour, and a narrow majority of kids here don't go to independent schools IIRC.
The opposition split perfectly for Labour here - Greens, Lib Dems and Tories all within 4% of one another. I'd be shocked if that's still the case in 2029 and the Lib Dems *should* bounce back here.
It really is a poor Lib Dem result, since a lot of this seat is still classic blue wall territory - Frognal, Hampstead Town and Belsize still just about fit that stereotype.
The Tory collapse was what I expected - they have been in free fall in council by-elections here (even when the party almost won the South Hampstead by-election).
My Green Party posters or Hornsey Lane account for the straight 10% rise in the Greens' vote. They will take the other two seats in Highgate in Camden in 2026.
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Post by hampsteadresident on Jul 6, 2024 7:26:56 GMT
As a Hampstead resident with kids at private school, I come into a lot of contact with private school parents. Whilst the VAT point is definitely an issue and a talking point here, I never expected the fees issue to have a significant impact in the NW3 area for the following reasons:
1. School fees have spiked astronomically in the past decade. We're used to big fee increases every year and we have no choice but to set aside a decent contingency from the very outset. Sending kids to private school also involves a lot more cost than just school fees - there are numerous other expenses such as very expensive school trips, after school clubs, school uniforms, etc which all add up. An extra 20% in fees due to VAT isn't actually that significant in the grand scheme of things.
2. A lot of parents here are so wealthy that they will have no difficulty stomaching a fee increase. A 20% fee increase is circa £6k per child - some parents spend that amount on birthday parties. My point here is that a lot of parents have bigger things to worry about than school fees and those bigger things will be what affects their vote.
3. Many parents here don't vote Labour first place. The Tories will always have a core vote here, and this is why they never slip into 3rd place in actual elections (i.e. disregarding the notionals). Most people expected the Libdems to win Hampstead and Kilburn in 2010, but in the end it still was the Tories (and not the Libdems) who lost to Glenda Jackson by 42 votes.
4. Private schools here are very competitive and not easy to get into. Some prep schools require registration shortly after birth and have a fierce selection process at the age of 3-4 (toddlers being given subject to interviews and group assessments). It's so extreme that I've even met some prospective parents who have said that they would be okay with fees going up if it meant less competition for their kids to get into their choice of school.
5. Many parents are not British and don't vote.
This area used to be really interesting back in the days when it was the most marginal seat in the country and I used to be targeted by all 3 main parties. Things died down very quickly after the huge swing to Labour in 2017, but even in 2019 I still received 7 leaflets from the Libdems and at least one from Labour and the Conservatives. This time round, I received 1 leaflet from Labour and the Libdems and nothing at all from the Tories.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 31, 2024 14:01:07 GMT
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Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 14:02:55 GMT
Standing in front of corporate signage in the pic LOL. We really had a downgrade here in 2015 - RIP Glenda Jackson - god rest her. I hope there's a by-election here. Please don't message me abut whether I would contest such a by-election because 1) I'm focusing on, ahem, other things and 2) we don't know if there'll be one yet! |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Aug 5, 2024 10:43:55 GMT
Not that it's likely to be relevant in terms of by-elections, but Tulip Siddiq is the niece of the currently fleeing PM of Bangladesh
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 6, 2024 9:56:53 GMT
So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools. LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1% This.....did not happen. Tbf to sanders they made some "unlikely" predictions that weren't far off, but this definitely wasn't one of them. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 6, 2024 10:40:05 GMT
So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools. LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1% This.....did not happen. Tbf to sanders they made some "unlikely" predictions that weren't far off, but this definitely wasn't one of them. Yes. I spend too much time in the N6 part of the seat. lol. |
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