Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 22:11:28 GMT
It really ought to be - H&H is the most promising LD target after Wimbledon, with a fair few similarities to that constituency. I don't know why it's not a target. Carshalton? Sutton? Carshalton yes because of the size of the Tory lead, but Labour has decent potential to surge at the Lib Dems expense there and the Sutton seats are more car-dependant than this one so long ULEZ may limit the Lib Dems' advance in Carshalton & Wallington and Sutton & Cheam. I know the Lib Dem council opposed it, but the Lib Dem GLA members cast the decisive votes to pave the way for ULEZ to expand to the Greater London border, if memory serves. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 29, 2024 22:19:57 GMT
2019 Notional Con lead over Lib Dem: Wimbledon 1.5% points Hampstead & Highgate 23.3% points Separated at birth. But Pete Whitehead has produced notional suggesting the Lib Dems came second here in 2019. Why are those figures not splashed across bar charts across the seat? You've just answered your own question. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 22:20:52 GMT
But Pete Whitehead has produced notional suggesting the Lib Dems came second here in 2019. Why are those figures not splashed across bar charts across the seat? You've just answered your own question. ? |
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Post by dizz on Jun 29, 2024 22:23:37 GMT
As a Man United fan, may I point out that the last person to constantlyo shout "Fact" at an older expert, ended up being, very much, the loser. Ok. But, Ged, while I'd always defer to your superior knowledge regarding Blackburn and other Lancs seats, I'd hope you'd hear me out about my own constituency. Weld - good evening. Often the hardest seats to predict can be our own - in my case Islington North. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 22:25:17 GMT
Ok. But, Ged, while I'd always defer to your superior knowledge regarding Blackburn and other Lancs seats, I'd hope you'd hear me out about my own constituency. Weld - good evening. Often the hardest seats to predict can be our own - in my case Islington North. Islington North is your home seat, eh? I think I might have known that. Corbyn wins unless Putin's Russia nukes Finsbury Park and Tollington wards before polling day. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 30, 2024 6:55:03 GMT
Weld in his working out has Kilburn, I think. Kilburn is not in this constituency. it's in Queens Park and MV. This seat has no areas in it that are west of the Kilburn High Road and it now has two Highgate wards. One has a decent LD vote but the LB Camden Highgate ward has a v low LD vote. In a by-election there eight months ago they tallied just 84 votes! LD likely to get second however imo. Stating more honestly their love of the EU / Rejoin would have got them more votes. Greens might have a good showing.
Tulip will get 50%+ , may get 60%+. As is the case everywhere it'll be interesting to see the turnout and sheer numbers actually voting though. If it's low it will take the shine off her win and confirm the lack of enthusiasm and affection for Starmer's party.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 8:23:41 GMT
Weld in his working out has Kilburn, I think. Kilburn is not in this constituency. it's in Queens Park and MV. This seat has no areas in it that are west of the Kilburn High Road and it now has two Highgate wards. One has a decent LD vote but the LB Camden Highgate ward has a v low LD vote. In a by-election there eight months ago they tallied just 84 votes! LD likely to get second however imo. Stating more honestly their love of the EU / Rejoin would have got them more votes. Greens might have a good showing. Tulip will get 50%+ , may get 60%+. As is the case everywhere it'll be interesting to see the turnout and sheer numbers actually voting though. If it's low it will take the shine off her win and confirm the lack of enthusiasm and affection for Starmer's party. Kilburn is in Hampstead & Highgate. Have you looked at new boundaries for the constituency? 60% is above what Labour got in Hampstead & Kilburn in 2017 - Labour will be closer to 40% in this seat because of the backlash against VAT on school fees and the 20 miles per hour speed limit on the Finchley Road. Study the local by-election trends where Labour consistently shed 10% of the vote. They lost Highgate by 30% in November, lost Hampstead Town to the Lib Dems in 2022, and almost lost the much safer ward of South Hampstead to the Tories in 2023. I don't deny she's the favourite, but the idea that Tulip Siddiq will get more votes than 2019 on worse boundaries is horse feathers. This is one of the richest seats anywhere in the land, and only Kilburn and Gospel Oak will keep it in Labour hands if they win. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 30, 2024 8:32:23 GMT
You've just answered your own question. ? . That's why. |
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Post by batman on Jun 30, 2024 8:37:57 GMT
The Brent & Westminster parts of Kilburn will be in Queen's Park & Maida Vale. The Camden section of it will be in Hampstead & Highgate. Kilburn as a community is spread between 3 boroughs and has never been all in the same constituency, and will not be now. So, while less of Kilburn will be associated with Hampstead for parliamentary purposes, some of it still will be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 8:53:44 GMT
Kilburn is gentrifying rapidly along with West Hampstead which used to be more solid for Labour (even in the 1980s) than they are nowadays. The Lib Dems could plausibly beat Tulip in West Hampstead, along with Belsize Park, Fortune Green, Hampstead Town and Highgate (in Haringey). We have eight Lib Dem councillors here now and that will shoot up in 2026 because the Tories are dead. LDs will sweep split wards in 2026, and cannibalise the Tories in Primrose Hill and South Hampstead.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2024 9:03:29 GMT
If the Labour Party were in the remotest danger in Hampstead & Highgate, you can be sure I would have heard about it by now, as would most London Labour Party members & members further afield too. The same applies to other Labour-held seats. In a small number it is well-known that Labour is facing a worthwhile challenge, and these seats (examples include Bristol Central, Dewsbury & Batley, and Birmingham Ladywood) are being fought as marginals. Not this one though. Your political instincts are so astute that you've not won an election in what, 20 years? Well being a Labour person in Richmond upon Thames will have that sort of result won't it. On balance, I think I preferred you in your Gloy Plopwell days. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 9:04:29 GMT
Your political instincts are so astute that you've not won an election in what, 20 years? Well being a Labour person in Richmond upon Thames will have that sort of result won't it. On balance, I think I preferred you in your Gloy Plopwell days. I just don't like the sort of omniscience some on here give off. I'm not the only one. It's just the same 'if something was up, I'd know' that sticks in the throat TBH. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2024 9:08:46 GMT
Its a fair point though if Labour HQ has given precisely zero indication this seat is at any risk. Even if they aren't infallible.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 30, 2024 9:15:50 GMT
If you can't accept the fact that hardly any of Kilburn is in H&H you will not have much credibility
OK put your money where your mouth is
LAB over 45%
LD under 30%
Both of these must be realised.
£20. Winnings to charity
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 30, 2024 9:19:34 GMT
2019 Notional Con lead over Lib Dem: Wimbledon 1.5% points Hampstead & Highgate 23.3% points Separated at birth. But Pete Whitehead has produced notional suggesting the Lib Dems came second here in 2019. Why are those figures not splashed across bar charts across the seat? The 2019 Notional result I've put near the top of the thread is the 'official' (ie Thrasher & Rallings) notional result (previous years are my own). FWIW my own figures were very similar, also with the Lib Dems (just) in second place. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 10:11:08 GMT
But Pete Whitehead has produced notional suggesting the Lib Dems came second here in 2019. Why are those figures not splashed across bar charts across the seat? The 2019 Notional result I've put near the top of the thread is the 'official' (ie Thrasher & Rallings) notional result (previous years are my own). FWIW my own figures were very similar, also with the Lib Dems (just) in second place. The Lib Dems aren't talking about this in the leaflet they sent us - they are, like me, playing up their expanded Councillor count since the 2022 locals. I think if the Lib Dems actually came second in Hampstead & Kilburn in 2019, they would be in a stronger position. The most likely scenario is that Labour win this year and lose it in 2029. There are parts of this seat (and I know this is an archaic way to look at things) that just have business having a Labour MP like Hampstead Town and Frugal wards, as well as Highgate ward in Haringey where I am. The Lib Dems have already cannibalised the Highgate Haringey Tories since evicting them from the local authority in 2002 and they could do the same in wards like Primrose Hill, South Hampstead, West Hampstead (already doing it) and Kilburn. The only problem for the Lib Dems is Gospel Oak but that would be by far the best area of this seat for a Galloway style candidate Workers Party or independent type since it has the biggest Muslim population of any H&H ward. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 30, 2024 10:23:15 GMT
I will not respond to personal abuse . This contributor is wasting his time. Your overconfidence is your weakness vis-a-vis some London seats, my friend, no offence. I think you are dead wrong about this seat and Ilford North (wish-casting).
Whether other posters are right or not, I can't say. However you don't seem to get how difficult it is for Independents to win seats in this country, however much one would like them to.
Unfortunately your posting has been very very eccentric, almost to the stage that if you predict a winner of a seat I'd bet on the other contender.
Why is this? I think it is because, although you understand politics in the broadest sense, you haven't yet grasped the psephology of individual constituencies. How much internal dynamics, short term campaigning, long term campaigning, demographics, candidate quality, national trends all mix together in a cauldron to produce each individual result. I don't understand it half as well as many on here, which is why I read and try and learn. I suggest you try and realise that you need to do the same, because I believe you have the brains to understand psephology but you haven't quite got there yet. This is just my opinion and one I am happy for you to ignore, but if you do so it may mean people come to see you as an eccentric or worse a troll when you don't intend to be.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 30, 2024 16:22:03 GMT
"Pete Whitehead has produced notional". That's why. Actually, the 2019 notionals are the Railings ones. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 30, 2024 16:27:06 GMT
The 2019 Notional result I've put near the top of the thread is the 'official' (ie Thrasher & Rallings) notional result (previous years are my own). FWIW my own figures were very similar, also with the Lib Dems (just) in second place. The Lib Dems aren't talking about this in the leaflet they sent us - they are, like me, playing up their expanded Councillor count since the 2022 locals. I think if the Lib Dems actually came second in Hampstead & Kilburn in 2019, they would be in a stronger position. The most likely scenario is that Labour win this year and lose it in 2029. There are parts of this seat (and I know this is an archaic way to look at things) that just have business having a Labour MP like Hampstead Town and Frugal wards, as well as Highgate ward in Haringey where I am. The Lib Dems have already cannibalised the Highgate Haringey Tories since evicting them from the local authority in 2002 and they could do the same in wards like Primrose Hill, South Hampstead, West Hampstead (already doing it) and Kilburn. The only problem for the Lib Dems is Gospel Oak but that would be by far the best area of this seat for a Galloway style candidate Workers Party or independent type since it has the biggest Muslim population of any H&H ward. Is there a "no" missing here? |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 30, 2024 19:33:03 GMT
"Hampstead wasn't good enough for you was it"...
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