batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 29, 2024 17:25:47 GMT
Normally I would say the best approach to such kinds of lunacy is to not engage... But I've never been very good at following my own advice, so I'm going to point out the bleeding obvious - any impressive swings achieved in local by-elections by the Lib Dems will have come as the result of some hard campaigning and targetting. To achieve a similar swing in a general election would require many times that amount of effort and targetting over an extended period of time to even stand a chance. Is there one iota of evidence that the Lib Dems are making that kind of effort here? I'm implementing a policy of not engaging with certain contributors here, even if directly insulted, and I feel much better for it. Should have tried it ages ago. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 29, 2024 18:28:38 GMT
Normally I would say the best approach to such kinds of lunacy is to not engage... But I've never been very good at following my own advice, so I'm going to point out the bleeding obvious - any impressive swings achieved in local by-elections by the Lib Dems will have come as the result of some hard campaigning and targetting. To achieve a similar swing in a general election would require many times that amount of effort and targetting over an extended period of time to even stand a chance. Is there one iota of evidence that the Lib Dems are making that kind of effort here? I'm implementing a policy of not engaging with certain contributors here, even if directly insulted, and I feel much better for it. Should have tried it ages ago. Much to be recommended - a policy I have always followed. There are a dozen regular contributors here who I don't engage with, even if I do read them (sometimes). |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Jun 29, 2024 19:15:19 GMT
To pick up on an earlier point, whilst I don't know what's happening in London in detail, I am certainly not aware of this seat being on any target list of ours
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 29, 2024 19:17:48 GMT
To pick up on an earlier point, whilst I don't know what's happening in London in detail, I am certainly not aware of this seat being on any target list of ours Me neither. If it falls to us we'll be deep into uncharted waters. But I have a hat available for consumption should the need arise. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 29, 2024 20:16:17 GMT
If the Labour Party were in the remotest danger in Hampstead & Highgate, you can be sure I would have heard about it by now, as would most London Labour Party members & members further afield too. The same applies to other Labour-held seats. In a small number it is well-known that Labour is facing a worthwhile challenge, and these seats (examples include Bristol Central, Dewsbury & Batley, and Birmingham Ladywood) are being fought as marginals. Not this one though.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 21:37:35 GMT
If the Labour Party were in the remotest danger in Hampstead & Highgate, you can be sure I would have heard about it by now, as would most London Labour Party members & members further afield too. The same applies to other Labour-held seats. In a small number it is well-known that Labour is facing a worthwhile challenge, and these seats (examples include Bristol Central, Dewsbury & Batley, and Birmingham Ladywood) are being fought as marginals. Not this one though. Your political instincts are so astute that you've not won an election in what, 20 years? If you're so in tune with mood music and ground game, why were you not selected in Richmond Park and Cities of London & Westminster when you sought the Labour nominations, IIRC. You like to speak with some authority but TBQH I question it. I agree on Dewsbury & Batley. Again, no amount of Labour activism, especially from folks 60+, will save this seat if it's truly in danger. The VAT on private schools is an issue here, FACT. Labour are in free fall in this seat since Brexit is no longer an issue, FACT. The Lib Dems pose a strong challenge to Labour, FACT. You indulge in a lot of wish casting, usually for boring, centrist Labour politicians. TL;DR: you are (probably) out of touch, old man. I actually live in this seat. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 29, 2024 21:40:37 GMT
I will not respond to personal abuse . This contributor is wasting his time.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 21:41:13 GMT
I will not respond to personal abuse . This contributor is wasting his time. Your overconfidence is your weakness vis-a-vis some London seats, my friend, no offence. I think you are dead wrong about this seat and Ilford North (wish-casting). |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2024 21:42:50 GMT
If the Labour Party were in the remotest danger in Hampstead & Highgate, you can be sure I would have heard about it by now, as would most London Labour Party members & members further afield too. The same applies to other Labour-held seats. In a small number it is well-known that Labour is facing a worthwhile challenge, and these seats (examples include Bristol Central, Dewsbury & Batley, and Birmingham Ladywood) are being fought as marginals. Not this one though. Your political instincts are so astute that you've not won an election in what, 20 years? If you're so in tune with mood music and ground game, why were you not selected in Richmond Park and Cities of London & Westminster when you sought the Labour nominations, IIRC. You like to speak with some authority but TBQH I question it. I agree on Dewsbury & Batley. Again, no amount of Labour activism, especially from folks 60+, will save this seat if it's truly in danger. The VAT on private schools is an issue here, FACT. Labour are in free fall in this seat since Brexit is no longer an issue, FACT. The Lib Dems pose a strong challenge to Labour, FACT. You indulge in a lot of wish casting, usually for boring, centrist Labour politicians. TL;DR: you are (probably) out of touch, old man. I actually live in this seat. As a Man United fan, may I point out that the last person to constantly shout "Fact" at an older expert, ended up being, very much, the loser. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 21:45:01 GMT
Your political instincts are so astute that you've not won an election in what, 20 years? If you're so in tune with mood music and ground game, why were you not selected in Richmond Park and Cities of London & Westminster when you sought the Labour nominations, IIRC. You like to speak with some authority but TBQH I question it. I agree on Dewsbury & Batley. Again, no amount of Labour activism, especially from folks 60+, will save this seat if it's truly in danger. The VAT on private schools is an issue here, FACT. Labour are in free fall in this seat since Brexit is no longer an issue, FACT. The Lib Dems pose a strong challenge to Labour, FACT. You indulge in a lot of wish casting, usually for boring, centrist Labour politicians. TL;DR: you are (probably) out of touch, old man. I actually live in this seat. As a Man United fan, may I point out that the last person to constantly shout "Fact" at an older expert, ended up being, very much, the loser. Ok. But while I'd always defer to your superior knowledge regarding Blackburn and other Lancs seats, I'd hope you'd hear me out about my own constituency. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 29, 2024 21:48:41 GMT
If the Labour Party were in the remotest danger in Hampstead & Highgate, you can be sure I would have heard about it by now, as would most London Labour Party members & members further afield too. The same applies to other Labour-held seats. In a small number it is well-known that Labour is facing a worthwhile challenge, and these seats (examples include Bristol Central, Dewsbury & Batley, and Birmingham Ladywood) are being fought as marginals. Not this one though. Your political instincts are so astute that you've not won an election in what, 20 years? If you're so in tune with mood music and ground game, why were you not selected in Richmond Park and Cities of London & Westminster when you sought the Labour nominations, IIRC. You like to speak with some authority but TBQH I question it. I agree on Dewsbury & Batley. Again, no amount of Labour activism, especially from folks 60+, will save this seat if it's truly in danger. The VAT on private schools is an issue here, FACT. Labour are in free fall in this seat since Brexit is no longer an issue, FACT. The Lib Dems pose a strong challenge to Labour, FACT. You indulge in a lot of wish casting, usually for boring, centrist Labour politicians. TL;DR: you are (probably) out of touch, old man. I actually live in this seat. What an unpleasant and unnecessary post. Batman is a frequently informative poster, and in this case made entirely sensible and reasonable comments.
I normally have some time for your obvious psephological enthusiasm, as much as I disagree with many of your conclusions. But many of your posts over the last few days have been little more than random streams-of-consciousness. I really think you might want to take a step back and rethink this post in particular for its gratuitously nasty approach, but also to calm down your contributions in general.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 21:50:16 GMT
To pick up on an earlier point, whilst I don't know what's happening in London in detail, I am certainly not aware of this seat being on any target list of ours It really ought to be - H&H is the most promising LD target after Wimbledon, with a fair few similarities to that constituency. I don't know why it's not a target. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jun 29, 2024 21:53:05 GMT
I will not respond to personal abuse . This contributor is wasting his time. For what it's worth I have found you to be very measured and diligent in your assessment of the various constituencies in your threads - including those I know well - perhaps exemplified by having gone to the trouble of making fair comments about fringe candidates polling as little as 6% in constituency surveys. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 21:54:42 GMT
I will not respond to personal abuse . This contributor is wasting his time. For what it's worth I have found you to be very measured and diligent in your assessment of the various constituencies in your threads - including those I know well - perhaps exemplified by having gone to the trouble of making fair comments about fringe candidates polling as little as 6% in constituency surveys. Polling as little as 6% so far!  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 29, 2024 21:55:42 GMT
Be fair, that was just over a month ago! During which time the Lab : Con : Lib Dem poll shares have barely moved in relation to each other. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
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Post by stb12 on Jun 29, 2024 21:56:24 GMT
Ok, we need to take some heat out of these discussions and that goes for everyone in general
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 29, 2024 22:05:58 GMT
To pick up on an earlier point, whilst I don't know what's happening in London in detail, I am certainly not aware of this seat being on any target list of ours It really ought to be - H&H is the most promising LD target after Wimbledon, with a fair few similarities to that constituency. I don't know why it's not a target. 2019 Notional Con lead over Lib Dem: Wimbledon 1.5% points Hampstead & Highgate 23.3% points Separated at birth. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 22:09:15 GMT
It really ought to be - H&H is the most promising LD target after Wimbledon, with a fair few similarities to that constituency. I don't know why it's not a target. 2019 Notional Con lead over Lib Dem: Wimbledon 1.5% points Hampstead & Highgate 23.3% points Separated at birth. But Pete Whitehead has produced notional suggesting the Lib Dems came second here in 2019. Why are those figures not splashed across bar charts across the seat? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 29, 2024 22:09:24 GMT
To pick up on an earlier point, whilst I don't know what's happening in London in detail, I am certainly not aware of this seat being on any target list of ours It really ought to be - H&H is the most promising LD target after Wimbledon, with a fair few similarities to that constituency. I don't know why it's not a target. Carshalton? Sutton? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 29, 2024 22:11:04 GMT
As a Man United fan, may I point out that the last person to constantly shout "Fact" at an older expert, ended up being, very much, the loser. Ok. But, while I'd always defer to your superior knowledge regarding Blackburn and other Lancs seats, I'd hope you'd hear me out about my own constituency. I was referring to your resorting to the shouty Benitez attack on Alex Ferguson. |
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