Hampstead and Highgate

[stb12]

Hampstead and Highgate

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	52.0%	45.9%		2.0%
1950	52.1%	32.6%	12.8%	2.5%
1951	55.7%	36.3%	8.0%
1955	56.7%	33.8%	8.9%	0.7%
1959	53.5%	30.5%	14.7%	0.4%
1964	44.4%	40.3%	14.7%	0.7%
1966	42.8%	46.7%	9.5%	0.5%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	47.6%	44.7%	7.3%
1974	43.0%	38.0%	18.8%
1974	44.2%	40.7%	14.4%	0.2%
1979	47.6%	38.7%	12.9%	0.7%
1983	41.3%	33.6%	24.7%
1987	42.9%	37.5%	18.8%
1992	41.6%	45.1%	11.3%

	Con	Lab	LD	Grn	Ref/UKIP/ BXP
1997	27.2%	57.2%	12.4%		1.6%
2001	24.4%	46.1%	21.7%	4.5%	0.9%
2005	27.2%	37.1%	29.7%	5.0%	0.7%
2010	33.4%	32.0%	31.3%	1.5%	0.8%
2015	40.3%	42.0%	9.5%	5.0%	2.8%
2017	32.1%	56.9%	8.9%	1.5%	0.5%
2019	23.2%	47.6%	24.3%	3.6%	1.3%

[Deleted]

My constituency. Labour will walk this, but based on the notional results and local elections since the last GE, I reckon the Lib Dems will come second here, aiming to strengthen their Councillor base in council wards like Fortune Green, Hampstead Town and West Hampstead in 2026 - they already hold all the Belsize and Highgate (Haringey) seats. The LDs could end up with almost a dozen Councillors in this constituency in 2026 and maybe well-placed to challenge Labour when they are in government. The Greens will save their deposit here, although they don't have a whole lot of strength seat-wide.

[hempie]

www.camden.gov.uk/documents/d/guest/notice-of-poll-and-sits-of-ps-hampstead-and-highgate-1

7 Candidates:
Con
Lab
Lib Dem
Green
Reform
Rejoin EU
Ind (Jonathan Louis Livingstone)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Independent candidate Jonathan Livingstone is covered in this week's CNJ - his platform is leasehold reform, after being a "mortgage prisoner" in 2021-23.

[Deleted]

Given their success in by-elections in Hampstead Town and their advance in South Hampstead last year, I think the Lib Dems will surge here. We already known their capable of winning Belsize Park and Highgate in Haringey, as well as Fortune Green. They could plausibly beat Labour in Hampstead Town and West Hampstead too. The Tories will probably win Frognal. In 2022, the opposition to Labour in South Hampstead and Primrose Hill was split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. There's no reason that with tactical voting, the Lib Dems could pull ahead in Primrose Hill and South Hampstead wards in addition to the four I mentioned.

So where does Labour win?Labour will be ahead in Gospel Oak and Kilburn, but due to the war in Gaza you will see some Muslim voters in Gospel Oak voting third party or staying at home. As for Kilburn, the Lib Dems only need to be lucky once; Labour need to be lucky every time (I joke, but still, Kilburn is gentrifying at a rate of knots - it's not all Irish these days). I know Old Etonians with million pound houses in that area.

So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools.

LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1%

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 28, 2024 19:34:36 GMT @weld said:

Given their success in by-elections in Hampstead Town and their advance in South Hampstead last year, I think the Lib Dems will surge here. We already known their capable of winning Belsize Park and Highgate in Haringey, as well as Fortune Green. They could plausibly beat Labour in Hampstead Town and West Hampstead too. The Tories will probably win Frognal. In 2022, the opposition to Labour in South Hampstead and Primrose Hill was split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. There's no reason that with tactical voting, the Lib Dems could pull ahead in Primrose Hill and South Hampstead wards in addition to the four I mentioned.

So where does Labour win?Labour will be ahead in Gospel Oak and Kilburn, but due to the war in Gaza you will see some Muslim voters in Gospel Oak voting third party or staying at home. As for Kilburn, the Lib Dems only need to be lucky once; Labour need to be lucky every time (I joke, but still, Kilburn is gentrifying at a rate of knots - it's not all Irish these days). I know Old Etonians with million pound houses in that area.

So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools.

LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1%

Delusional.

[john07]

Snigger, and bookmark for posterity!

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 19:46:27 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Jun 28, 2024 19:34:36 GMT @weld said:

Given their success in by-elections in Hampstead Town and their advance in South Hampstead last year, I think the Lib Dems will surge here. We already known their capable of winning Belsize Park and Highgate in Haringey, as well as Fortune Green. They could plausibly beat Labour in Hampstead Town and West Hampstead too. The Tories will probably win Frognal. In 2022, the opposition to Labour in South Hampstead and Primrose Hill was split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. There's no reason that with tactical voting, the Lib Dems could pull ahead in Primrose Hill and South Hampstead wards in addition to the four I mentioned.

So where does Labour win?Labour will be ahead in Gospel Oak and Kilburn, but due to the war in Gaza you will see some Muslim voters in Gospel Oak voting third party or staying at home. As for Kilburn, the Lib Dems only need to be lucky once; Labour need to be lucky every time (I joke, but still, Kilburn is gentrifying at a rate of knots - it's not all Irish these days). I know Old Etonians with million pound houses in that area.

So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools.

LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1%

Delusional.

Why is it? The Lib Dems would have come second here in 2019.

The swings in my prediction are:

Lib Dem 42 (+18)
Labour 41 (-6)
Conservative 11 (-12)
Green 4 (no change
Reform 1 (not applicable)
Other 1

The Liberal Democrat only need a 12% swing to win this seat and can get most of that with Tory tactical voting around Belsize Park, Hampstead, Swiss Cottage and West Hampstead. Look at the local election results from 2022 and the swings to the Lib Dems since then. 20/1 are pretty good odds when you remember the areas of London we are talking about it. A party that wants to punish people for sending their kids to independent schools (indirectly since they know the schools will hike prices) has no business representing this seat. It's robing Peter to pay Paul Robin Hood politics of envy and I say that as someone who was considering Labour before Starmer u-turned on all the good stuff he said he'd do in 2020.

[wallington]

Jun 28, 2024 19:34:36 GMT @weld said:

Given their success in by-elections in Hampstead Town and their advance in South Hampstead last year, I think the Lib Dems will surge here. We already known their capable of winning Belsize Park and Highgate in Haringey, as well as Fortune Green. They could plausibly beat Labour in Hampstead Town and West Hampstead too. The Tories will probably win Frognal. In 2022, the opposition to Labour in South Hampstead and Primrose Hill was split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. There's no reason that with tactical voting, the Lib Dems could pull ahead in Primrose Hill and South Hampstead wards in addition to the four I mentioned.

So where does Labour win?Labour will be ahead in Gospel Oak and Kilburn, but due to the war in Gaza you will see some Muslim voters in Gospel Oak voting third party or staying at home. As for Kilburn, the Lib Dems only need to be lucky once; Labour need to be lucky every time (I joke, but still, Kilburn is gentrifying at a rate of knots - it's not all Irish these days). I know Old Etonians with million pound houses in that area.

So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools.

LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1%

ok, soooo... you're trolling now? @weld if not, it's time to cool them jets.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 28, 2024 20:09:55 GMT @weld said:

Jun 28, 2024 19:46:27 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Delusional.

Why is it? The Lib Dems would have come second here in 2019.

The swings in my prediction are:

Lib Dem 42 (+18)
Labour 41 (-6)
Conservative 11 (-12)
Green 4 (no change
Reform 1 (not applicable)
Other 1

The Liberal Democrat only need a 12% swing to win this seat and can get most of that with Tory tactical voting around Belsize Park, Hampstead, Swiss Cottage and West Hampstead. Look at the local election results from 2022 and the swings to the Lib Dems since then. 20/1 are pretty good odds when you remember the areas of London we are talking about it. A party that wants to punish people for sending their kids to independent schools (indirectly since they know the schools will hike prices) has no business representing this seat. It's robing Peter to pay Paul Robin Hood politics of envy and I say that as someone who was considering Labour before Starmer u-turned on all the good stuff he said he'd do in 2020.

I don't know this ward at all well, but I suspect a Labour to Liberal Democrat swing is unlikely  especially as this is a anti-Conservative, and generally pro-Labour, general election. If we had an unpopular Labour, rather than Conservative  government you would have a greater chance of being correct.

[batman]

Of course it's arrant nonsense. I'm not saying that the LDs will never win this seat, but they are simply not going to in this general election. Pie in the sky.

[Deleted]

2022 locals, FWIW. Top three.

LAB 32%
CON 24%
LD 23%

Local by-elections here since 2022 have seen the Labour vote fall by on average of 10% which is consistent with my view that they will fall back by at least 5%.

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 28, 2024 20:41:27 GMT @weld said:

2022 locals, FWIW. Top three.

LAB 32%
CON 24%
LD 23%

Local by-elections here since 2022 have seen the Labour vote fall by on average of 10% which is consistent with my view that they will fall back by at least 5%.

To quote a dear-departed previous member of this forum who you may not remember, "differential turnout".

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 20:48:30 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Jun 28, 2024 20:41:27 GMT @weld said:

2022 locals, FWIW. Top three.

LAB 32%
CON 24%
LD 23%

Local by-elections here since 2022 have seen the Labour vote fall by on average of 10% which is consistent with my view that they will fall back by at least 5%.

To quote a dear-departed previous member of this forum who you may not remember, "differential turnout".

Non-Labour voters have even more reason to be pissed off now than the odd Low Traffic Neighbourhood or local Labour Councillors quitting for no reason. 

[rogerg]

Jun 28, 2024 20:09:55 GMT @weld said:

Jun 28, 2024 19:46:27 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Delusional.

Why is it? The Lib Dems would have come second here in 2019.

The swings in my prediction are:

Lib Dem 42 (+18)
Labour 41 (-6)
Conservative 11 (-12)
Green 4 (no change
Reform 1 (not applicable)
Other 1

The Liberal Democrat only need a 12% swing to win this seat and can get most of that with Tory tactical voting around Belsize Park, Hampstead, Swiss Cottage and West Hampstead. Look at the local election results from 2022 and the swings to the Lib Dems since then. 20/1 are pretty good odds when you remember the areas of London we are talking about it. A party that wants to punish people for sending their kids to independent schools (indirectly since they know the schools will hike prices) has no business representing this seat. It's robing Peter to pay Paul Robin Hood politics of envy and I say that as someone who was considering Labour before Starmer u-turned on all the good stuff he said he'd do in 2020.

Ah, Lib Dems "only" need a 12% swing! In an election where the Lib Dem vote share is static and Labour is up maybe 8-10%. Not remotely going to happen. Lib Dems and predecessors have never beaten Labour in the actual Hampstead seat or this seat (assuming Pete's figures are right) - not with the SDP in the 1980s, Iraq in 2005, Cleggmania in 2010 nor Corbyn and Brexit in 2019. It's not going to happen now. However these new boundaries are about perfect for the Lib Dems, as with the revised Bermondsey & Old Southwark, and I imagine both seats will be properly fought and competitive next time, with Tories probably clearly out of the running here. (Having said which, I am a little surprised the figures don't show this version of the seat going LD in 2010. It seems this H&H would have been a little worse for the Tories than H&K actually was in 2019 but this H&H would also have been better than H&K actually was back in 2010.)

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 28, 2024 19:34:36 GMT @weld said:

Given their success in by-elections in Hampstead Town and their advance in South Hampstead last year, I think the Lib Dems will surge here. We already known their capable of winning Belsize Park and Highgate in Haringey, as well as Fortune Green. They could plausibly beat Labour in Hampstead Town and West Hampstead too. The Tories will probably win Frognal. In 2022, the opposition to Labour in South Hampstead and Primrose Hill was split between the Tories and the Lib Dems. There's no reason that with tactical voting, the Lib Dems could pull ahead in Primrose Hill and South Hampstead wards in addition to the four I mentioned.

So where does Labour win?Labour will be ahead in Gospel Oak and Kilburn, but due to the war in Gaza you will see some Muslim voters in Gospel Oak voting third party or staying at home. As for Kilburn, the Lib Dems only need to be lucky once; Labour need to be lucky every time (I joke, but still, Kilburn is gentrifying at a rate of knots - it's not all Irish these days). I know Old Etonians with million pound houses in that area.

So, the Lib Dems have a chance here. I think they will take the seat. The VAT on private schools is taxic here where around half the kids go to private schools.

LD 42% LAB 41% CON 11% GRN 4% REF 1% OTH 1%

May I refer the Hon Member to his post of May 23rd?

[The Bishop]

Be fair, that was just over a month ago!

[Tony Otim]

Normally I would say the best approach to such kinds of lunacy is to not engage...

But I've never been very good at following my own advice, so I'm going to point out the bleeding obvious - any impressive swings achieved in local by-elections by the Lib Dems will have come as the result of some hard campaigning and targetting. To achieve a similar swing in a general election would require many times that amount of effort and targetting over an extended period of time to even stand a chance. Is there one iota of evidence that the Lib Dems are making that kind of effort here?