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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 0:49:58 GMT
no, please stop wasting our valuable time ramping every single independent Tom Dick or Harry Just here to broaden the debate Respectfully, it only "broadens debate" if there is actually anything debatable in the first place. "Will Labour be challenged in East Ham?" is a very undebatable "no" |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 1:00:51 GMT
Just here to broaden the debate Respectfully, it only "broadens debate" if there is actually anything debatable in the first place. "Will Labour be challenged in East Ham?" is a very undebatable "no" Fair enough. I'm reading far too much into the recent independent win in a Newham local by-election, Sorry for getting carried away. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 27, 2024 8:32:46 GMT
no, please stop wasting our valuable time ramping every single independent Tom Dick or Harry Just here to broaden the debate
So you will continue to independently Sally forth.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 8:37:32 GMT
Just here to broaden the debate
Sally forth.
Was she Eric Forth's wife then? |
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Post by stodge on Jun 27, 2024 10:21:46 GMT
Yes, Sir Stephen Timms will win comfortably with around 70% of the vote. I expect Tahir Mirza to finish second with 10% followed by Conservative, Reform, Green, LD and the other two Independents. With a week to go, we've had the address from Labour only. I've seen the Reform election address but not had it delivered - nothing from either the Conservatives, Greens or the LDs. I agree with the overall sentiment that Labour aren’t going to lose this but I think 70% is too high tbh I think the “ Gaza backlash” might be similar to the 2005 election where he got 54% Entirely possible. Respect got 21% in that election - I would be surprised if Tahir Mirza did that well in the new East Ham. We have lost some of the more Muslim Wards such as Plaistow to West Ham & Beckton and Forest Gate to the new Stratford & Bow constituency. We still have Plashet but a lot of the new area is strongly Hindu and the anti-Gaza message just doesn't resonate in the same way. 60-65% of the vote for Timms is about where I am currently. Mirza's campaign has been more active than I was expecting - I think they are putting more effort into the West Ham & Beckton seat (especially with the Beckton by election due on the 18th). MIrza will probably be second at about 10-15% with the Conservatives (invisible and with two Hindu businessmen running as Independents likely to see their vote slide) around 10% followed by Reform, Green and the LDs and the two Independents would be my guess as this point. I could see Sophia Naqvi getting 20-25% in West Ham & Beckton and a strong Green showing in Stratford & Bow. Just to add we've had no canvassing at all. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 27, 2024 11:20:57 GMT
I agree with the overall sentiment that Labour aren’t going to lose this but I think 70% is too high tbh I think the “ Gaza backlash” might be similar to the 2005 election where he got 54% Entirely possible. Respect got 21% in that election - I would be surprised if Tahir Mirza did that well in the new East Ham. We have lost some of the more Muslim Wards such as Plaistow to West Ham & Beckton and Forest Gate to the new Stratford & Bow constituency. We still have Plashet but a lot of the new area is strongly Hindu and the anti-Gaza message just doesn't resonate in the same way. 60-65% of the vote for Timms is about where I am currently. Mirza's campaign has been more active than I was expecting - I think they are putting more effort into the West Ham & Beckton seat (especially with the Beckton by election due on the 18th). MIrza will probably be second at about 10-15% with the Conservatives (invisible and with two Hindu businessmen running as Independents likely to see their vote slide) around 10% followed by Reform, Green and the LDs and the two Independents would be my guess as this point. I could see Sophia Naqvi getting 20-25% in West Ham & Beckton and a strong Green showing in Stratford & Bow. Just to add we've had no canvassing at all.  |
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Post by stodge on Jul 7, 2024 10:32:39 GMT
I agree with the overall sentiment that Labour aren’t going to lose this but I think 70% is too high tbh I think the “ Gaza backlash” might be similar to the 2005 election where he got 54% Entirely possible. Respect got 21% in that election - I would be surprised if Tahir Mirza did that well in the new East Ham. We have lost some of the more Muslim Wards such as Plaistow to West Ham & Beckton and Forest Gate to the new Stratford & Bow constituency. We still have Plashet but a lot of the new area is strongly Hindu and the anti-Gaza message just doesn't resonate in the same way. 60-65% of the vote for Timms is about where I am currently. Mirza's campaign has been more active than I was expecting - I think they are putting more effort into the West Ham & Beckton seat (especially with the Beckton by election due on the 18th). MIrza will probably be second at about 10-15% with the Conservatives (invisible and with two Hindu businessmen running as Independents likely to see their vote slide) around 10% followed by Reform, Green and the LDs and the two Independents would be my guess as this point. I could see Sophia Naqvi getting 20-25% in West Ham & Beckton and a strong Green showing in Stratford & Bow. Just to add we've had no canvassing at all. Ouch. Timms finished with just 51% - I was about right with Mirza and the Conservatives but I didn't see the strong Green performance. They did nothing in the constituency - they were working Stratford & Bow - and will be delighted with this as a foundation for future work. I think the Newham Independents will be slightly disappointed with the Naqvi vote - she was unable to stop the anti-Labour vote fragmenting to both the Greens and Reform as well as to her and 20% (as it was with Respect) looks to be about the ceiling for a strongly pro-Muslim party even in this part of the world. The 2026 locals in Newham are looking ominous for Labour - we also have the Mayoral contest - and to see only Timms (with a personal vote) stay above 50% is intriguing. Can the Greens for example put up a strong Mayoral candidate and a full slate across the Borough? |
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