stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:35:21 GMT
Brentford and Isleworth
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 25, 2024 21:54:15 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib |
| | | | | | | | 1945 | 42.4% | 53.7% | 1.3% | | | 1950 | 50.0% | 43.4% | 6.4% | | | 1951 | 53.2% | 45.7% | 1.1% | | | 1955 | 54.5% | 44.0% | 1.5% | | | 1959 | 53.0% | 37.8% | 9.2% | | | 1964 | 45.2% | 39.5% | 15.2% | | | 1966 | 43.5% | 43.4% | 13.0% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 52.7% | 45.3% | 2.0% | | | 1974 | 42.5% | 36.7% | 17.8% | 3.1% | | 1974 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | | 1979 | 49.7% | 38.3% | 9.7% | 1.4% | | 1983 | 47.7% | 28.5% | 22.5% | 0.9% | | 1987 | 49.0% | 32.6% | 17.2% | | | 1992 | 45.6% | 41.4% | 11.7% | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Green | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 31.6% | 54.6% | 11.3% | | | | 2001 | 28.1% | 50.8% | 16.3% | | 2.5% | | 2005 | 28.3% | 40.2% | 24.6% | | 2.9% | | 2010 | 33.7% | 37.0% | 23.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | | 2015 | 36.4% | 46.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | | 2017 | 34.1% | 56.5% | 9.1% | | | | 2019 | 28.3% | 50.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% |
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batman
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Post by batman on Apr 25, 2024 22:33:08 GMT
Tory in 1966 but overwhelmingly Labour in 2019
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 12:13:55 GMT
Though tbf the 1966 "result" was a photo finish and could quite conceivably have gone the other way. Many thanks to Pete Whitehead for posting these btw  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2024 12:22:42 GMT
Of course the then Heston & Isleworth seat was narrowly Conservative in 1966 and would be safely Labour now. Relative to that seat, this is pushed a bit further to Labour by the addition of Brentford but with that partially offset by the addition of Whitton. "Tory in 1966 but overwhelmingly Labour in 2019" is not in the least an unusual phenomenon of course, especially in London.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 26, 2024 12:29:00 GMT
My understanding is that the difference between voting patterns in 1906 and 1959 were even more extreme.
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 27, 2024 10:19:15 GMT
Of course the then Heston & Isleworth seat was narrowly Conservative in 1966 and would be safely Labour now. Relative to that seat, this is pushed a bit further to Labour by the addition of Brentford but with that partially offset by the addition of Whitton. "Tory in 1966 but overwhelmingly Labour in 2019" is not in the least an unusual phenomenon of course, especially in London. The old Heston & Isleworth seat would have been quite different, as you say Brentford and Whitton were not in it and the present day Cranford, Heston West, Heston Central and Hounslow West wards were. The extent of demographic change in Heston and Hounslow town has been enormous since 1966. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2024 10:36:55 GMT
Of course the then Heston & Isleworth seat was narrowly Conservative in 1966 and would be safely Labour now. Relative to that seat, this is pushed a bit further to Labour by the addition of Brentford but with that partially offset by the addition of Whitton. "Tory in 1966 but overwhelmingly Labour in 2019" is not in the least an unusual phenomenon of course, especially in London. The old Heston & Isleworth seat would have been quite different, as you say Brentford and Whitton were not in it and the present day Cranford, Heston West, Heston Central and Hounslow West wards were. The extent of demographic change in Heston and Hounslow town has been enormous since 1966. Indeed, although in 1966 Cranford and the then Hounslow Heath (present day Hounslow West) ward were in the Feltham seat. The Heston & Isleworth only included the whole borough between 1945 and 1955 |
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 27, 2024 10:47:12 GMT
The old Heston & Isleworth seat would have been quite different, as you say Brentford and Whitton were not in it and the present day Cranford, Heston West, Heston Central and Hounslow West wards were. The extent of demographic change in Heston and Hounslow town has been enormous since 1966. Indeed, although in 1966 Cranford and the then Hounslow Heath (present day Hounslow West) ward were in the Feltham seat. The Heston & Isleworth only included the whole borough between 1945 and 1955 Ah of course, I misread the Wiki entry for the former constituency. I guess Heston in the 60s was marginal overall. There were only two Heston wards back then with the then Heston East being more Tory and the then Heston West more Labour. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Apr 27, 2024 19:43:41 GMT
yes, as Heston East is heavily predominantly owner-occupied (vast majority of houses being interwar semis, though not all) whereas Heston West always has had a strong council estate element. Heston East was a safe Tory ward until the 1990s but once it changed to Labour it changed very sharply & very abruptly
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 28, 2024 12:15:14 GMT
So quite amazingly the Tories would have been further ahead in this seat in 1987 than in the Brentford and Isleworth of that time, despite the loss of the Chiswick part of the seat.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 14:01:42 GMT
Fun fact, of the 144 seats Labour gained from the Tories in 1997 this seat had the largest majority, 14,424 votes, but was 22nd on their target list
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 14:02:46 GMT
Anyone have memories of Barney Hayhoe?
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 28, 2024 14:07:09 GMT
Anyone have memories of Barney Hayhoe? I remember my mother voting for him in 1987, I was 7! |
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Post by evergreenadam on Apr 28, 2024 14:09:17 GMT
Fun fact, of the 144 seats Labour gained from the Tories in 1997 this seat had the largest majority, 14,424 votes, but was 22nd on their target list The seat has a large electorate though, now significantly oversized hence the forthcoming boundary changes at the GE. |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 14:09:18 GMT
Anyone have memories of Barney Hayhoe? I remember my mother voting for him in 1987, I was 7! He was a popular local MP, despite holding views that would be out of place nationally, fitted this seat like a glove. |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 28, 2024 14:09:46 GMT
Fun fact, of the 144 seats Labour gained from the Tories in 1997 this seat had the largest majority, 14,424 votes, but was 22nd on their target list The seat has a large electorate though, now significantly oversized hence the forthcoming boundary changes at the GE. That’s Hounslow for you |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 14:15:20 GMT
So quite amazingly the Tories would have been further ahead in this seat in 1987 than in the Brentford and Isleworth of that time, despite the loss of the Chiswick part of the seat. Looking at the results it’s clear how well the Tories did in London that year, even somewhere like Tottenham had a fairly small majority for Labour |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 28, 2024 14:27:26 GMT
Obviously there were factors specific to Tottenham which generated a large anti-Labour swing there that year
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batman
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Post by batman on Apr 28, 2024 14:33:07 GMT
I certainly remember Hayhoe as I campaigned for Labour in the 1987 election which was Hayhoe's last. He was regarded as a fairly centrist Tory.
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