Beckenham and Penge

[stb12]

Beckenham and Penge

[markgoodair]

Reform has selected Edward Apostolides as their PPC.

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

Beckenham & Penge

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	45.3%	34.0%	20.6%
1950	59.0%	30.7%	10.3%
1951	66.1%	33.9%
1955	67.6%	32.4%
1959	60.7%	24.1%	15.2%
1964	52.9%	25.1%	22.0%
1966	51.1%	27.9%	21.0%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	57.1%	25.8%	17.0%
1974	50.1%	21.7%	28.0%
1974	48.8%	24.7%	26.3%
1979	58.2%	23.3%	15.6%	1.4%
1983	58.9%	14.4%	26.2%	0.5%
1987	58.0%	17.1%	24.9%
1992	58.2%	22.3%	17.6%

	Con	Lab	LD	Green	Ref/UKIP/ BXP
1997	41.2%	34.5%	18.3%		4.0%
2001	43.4%	35.7%	16.6%	2.1%	1.7%
2005	43.2%	29.1%	23.3%		2.6%
2010	46.4%	23.0%	24.9%	1.8%	2.7%
2015	45.8%	29.9%	7.6%	5.8%	10.3%
2017	44.4%	44.6%	7.7%	2.5%
2019	39.1%	40.1%	16.1%	4.0%	0.8%

[YL]

A narrow gain for Corbyn's Labour on an 8% swing in a seat they'd never won before would have been an interesting result, though not that dissimilar from what Canterbury did.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 25, 2024 19:10:10 GMT YL said:

A narrow gain for Corbyn's Labour on an 8% swing in a seat they'd never won before would have been an interesting result, though not that dissimilar from what Canterbury did.

I engaged in a little bit of 'herding' here (the only case where I have done that). Actually both my 2017 and 2019 notionals had a very small Conservative lead, but because the official result has a Labour lead in 2019 I adjusted my 2017 results (as on aggregate, the two donor seats had a Labour to Conservative swing in 2019). It only required a small shift of Labour votes from Hayes and Bromley Common to Kelsey Park and Copers Cope (and a shift of Conservatives the other way) which seems plausible enough given the 2022 local election results. I remain unconvinced that Labour carried this seat in either 2017 or 2019 but clearly would have been extremely close either way.

[where2travel]

Those results show just how relatively poor this area has been for the Tories from the Blair years onwards. With consistently high 58-59% Tory support throughout the Thatcher and Major elections, they barely ever recovered much from the large 1997 fall. In fact in 2019, they were lower than in 1997 again. Presumably there's a number of constituencies like this which share similar demographics, suburban locations etc?

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 28, 2024 22:00:28 GMT where2travel said:

Those results show just how relatively poor this area has been for the Tories from the Blair years onwards. With consistently high 58-59% Tory support throughout the Thatcher and Major elections, they barely ever recovered much from the large 1997 fall. In fact in 2019, they were lower than in 1997 again. Presumably there's a number of constituencies like this which share similar demographics, suburban locations etc?

If you ignore the superficial difference that Labour is notionally ahead here in 2017 and 2019 (and it is only notional, and debatable) the most similar seats in terms of the electoral trajectory are Chingford & Woodford and Chipping Barnet. Away from London I guess Altrincham & Sale West would be the closest equivalent. None of these seats quite have an ara equivalent to Penge however.

[mondialito]

SOPN:

Edward APOSTOLIDES - Reform UK

Liam CONLON - Labour Party

Ruth FABRICANT - Green Party

Hannah GRAY - Conservative Party

Chloe-Jane ROSS - Liberal Democrats

[k9]

So far:

One Labour survey at campaign start, one Labour A4 volunteer delivered
One Lib Dem A3 volunteer delivered, Lib Dem freepost
One Conservative A3 at start which may have been paid for delivery as it came with an advert for rugs, DL (envelope) sized "we called" and freepost

No Green or Reform.

[where2travel]

Similar here (in Beckenham Town & Copers Cope), there's barely any visible sign an election is happening. One leaflet (left as bundles in the flats' communal hallway which presumably quickly find their way into the bins) for each of Labour and the Conservatives, one posted (name/address) from the Lib Dems.

I've seen a few Liam Conlon (Labour) posters over in the Cator part of Penge & Cator. However, the weekend before last I walked to Downe and didn't see a single poster anywhere - admittedly once you get past Hayes station it's largely paths and fields but that's Bromley & Biggin Hill and then a small bit of Orpington once you get near Downe itself.

I have been bombarded by Liam Conlon sponsored posts on Facebook though.

[mellowyellow]

LD candidate is a good friend of mine. She's genuinely brilliant - fought her way up to take Copers Cope (now called Beckenham Town I think in locals?) from 3% in 2014 to 25%(ish) in 2018 locals, before winning last time out. Worked tremendously hard over 4 years to secure that and take away a safe local Tory seat. I helped her door knock during that time and saw what she put in.

She's the kind of candidate that would excel in a party looking at 200+ seats in a general, and would soon be parachuted into a winnable seat. Totally gets shit done for the local community. But she's a LD, so, you know....

Beckenham under the old boundaries may have been doable. But the addition of the Penge wards, (which bar Clockhouse - historically at least) has done for any kind of LD challebge here. They know that, and I expect they are spending their free time as dutiful LDs in Wimbledon, Carshalton, and Esher.

[nyx]

Jun 21, 2024 0:27:36 GMT mellowyellow said:

Beckenham under the old boundaries may have been doable. But the addition of the Penge wards, (which bar Clockhouse - historically at least) has done for any kind of LD challebge here. They know that, and I expect they are spending their free time as dutiful LDs in Wimbledon, Carshalton, and Esher.

Notionals Lab 40.1%, Con 39.1%, LD 16.1%.

Obviously not a seat that could be won this time, but if there's a serious campaign then one would have thought second place should be achievable, to set the seat up as a possible Lab-LD marginal and try to win in 2029.

[k9]

Both Lib Dem and Conservative handing out leaflets at Beckenham Junction this evening.

Labour must have done something in Beckenham on the weekend - some of their stickers adorn the high street.

[redtony]

another Eve Featherstone

[carlton43]

Jun 24, 2024 18:34:24 GMT k9 said:

Both Lib Dem and Conservative handing out leaflets at Beckenham Junction this evening.

Labour must have done something in Beckenham on the weekend - some of their stickers adorn the high street.

For me that has always been the most gormless and witless waste of time.  One gets in their way, hold up people rushing for a train and cause irritation.  All the leaflets are discarded on the floor, in litter bins, or left on left in the train.

[Deleted]

A UK polling report regular used to live here. I wonder who'd he vote for. Penge is a dump - Reform would've done well there 15 years ago.

[mellowyellow]

Jun 25, 2024 9:16:03 GMT @weld said:

A UK polling report regular used to live here. I wonder who'd he vote for. Penge is a dump - Reform would've done well there 15 years ago.

Boooooo!

Penge is not at all a dump. It's kinda pre-Peckham Rye esque inner London revival. It's got hipster (and therefore maybe Green Party?) written all over it. Quite literally in terms of the street art. 

Which when I say it out loud, maybe does confirm your point. 

Also, the home of a certain right wing nationalist EDL woman who's name I forget.....

[mellowyellow]

Jun 21, 2024 0:41:13 GMT nyx said:

Jun 21, 2024 0:27:36 GMT mellowyellow said:

Beckenham under the old boundaries may have been doable. But the addition of the Penge wards, (which bar Clockhouse - historically at least) has done for any kind of LD challebge here. They know that, and I expect they are spending their free time as dutiful LDs in Wimbledon, Carshalton, and Esher.

Notionals Lab 40.1%, Con 39.1%, LD 16.1%.

Obviously not a seat that could be won this time, but if there's a serious campaign then one would have thought second place should be achievable, to set the seat up as a possible Lab-LD marginal and try to win in 2029.

The very notion of Beckenham being a Lab - LD marginal is shocking. 

As mentioned above, I spent some time canvassing for the current LD candidate in locals. There were a lot - and I mean a lot - of die in the wool Tories.  I wouldn't say they are Reform switchers, but rather that space in between of 'it's always been this way.' They will never vote for Labour. But they'll never vote Reform. 

What are they left with?

Fundamentally, this area is no different to places like Carshalton, or Esher. Those places are turning LD I believe this time around. But it's supported by a strong campaign. We all know that you put resources where they are most needed. And LDs campaigning in B&P would be a waste. I believe at one point the local LD party had over 1000 members. Plenty of scope for growth, but they need some many more local ward seats before they can take a Parliamentary challenge seriously. 

[stodge]

I'm struggling with the concept of West Wickham being represented by a Labour MP.

I cut my political teeth in the area in the mid 80s and early 90s and it was tough terrain for anyone other than the Conservatives.

[batman]

It still is. But it's just not quite as heavily Conservative as it was even 6 years ago. It is an excellent illustration of the difficulties the Tories find themselves in that they can no longer beat Labour overwhelmingly in West Wickham, or some similar wards. Comfortably, yes, but overwhelmingly not for the time being. As per my profile, the real killer for the Tories has been their precipitous decline in Clock House ward, which was competitive for them a decade ago, but is now very heavily Labour.