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Post by johnloony on Apr 17, 2024 14:50:00 GMT
In what way is Liz Truss supposedly against freedom of speech? Or against gender identity? Anyone who attends an event with Steve Bannon isn't exactly on the side of democracy . Never mind Steve Bannon, never mind democracy, never mind the more bonkers American politicians she hangs out with; in what way is she “against freedom of speech”? |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 17, 2024 14:50:37 GMT
The Conservative party is a coalition. Its ideology is minimal and its purpose is to win and hold power. That doesn't mean that nobody in the party has an ideological backbone but historically the party as a whole has been suspicious of idealists. The party contains narrow nationalists, authoritarian social conservatives, economic liberals and relative enthusiasts for a big state. Truss has evolved (or seen the shape of the market in the party). She's also trying to both sell a book and keep herself in the activists' mind. One market space she's identified is that of the victim. It's depressing to see so many people on the right blaming their misfortune on woke or establishment plots. The Conservatives of my youth would never have been such wimps. And they'd have been more competent in designing and delivering their policies I don’t suggest that it’s morally right but making out that she was brought down by some shadowy establishment is probably the only chance she has of making some kind of come back after things went so wrong Apologising and accepting all the blame herself would be refreshingly honest but in the reality of politics probably wouldn’t help her have any future in the party |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 17, 2024 14:55:58 GMT
Liberalism has cracked up and scattered so widely since its collapse as a coherent political movement a century ago that strong arguments both for and against this policy can be grounded, if one choses, in the liberal tradition. It’s interesting how the Liberal Party is the main left wing party in Canada but the main right wing one in Australia Then there's the Southern Rhodesia Liberal Party, which was the first politial allegiance of Ian Smith before the Rhodesian Front were founded, and the Liberal Democrats in Russia (Zhirinovsky's mob). The Liberal Party of Israel was a predecessor party of Likud. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 17, 2024 15:46:53 GMT
The Conservative party is a coalition. Its ideology is minimal and its purpose is to win and hold power. That doesn't mean that nobody in the party has an ideological backbone but historically the party as a whole has been suspicious of idealists. The party contains narrow nationalists, authoritarian social conservatives, economic liberals and relative enthusiasts for a big state. Truss has evolved (or seen the shape of the market in the party). She's also trying to both sell a book and keep herself in the activists' mind. One market space she's identified is that of the victim. It's depressing to see so many people on the right blaming their misfortune on woke or establishment plots. The Conservatives of my youth would never have been such wimps. And they'd have been more competent in designing and delivering their policies I don’t suggest that it’s morally right but making out that she was brought down by some shadowy establishment is probably the only chance she has of making some kind of come back after things went so wrong Apologising and accepting all the blame herself would be refreshingly honest but in the reality of politics probably wouldn’t help her have any future in the party Realistically any party that lets her have a role in its future is stupid enough to deserve everything it gets. |
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stb12
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Posts: 8,365
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Post by stb12 on Apr 17, 2024 15:48:55 GMT
I don’t suggest that it’s morally right but making out that she was brought down by some shadowy establishment is probably the only chance she has of making some kind of come back after things went so wrong Apologising and accepting all the blame herself would be refreshingly honest but in the reality of politics probably wouldn’t help her have any future in the party Realistically any party that lets her have a role in its future is stupid enough to deserve everything it gets. Yeah, I don’t think it’ll work but it’s clear that she’s hoping for it. Whereas Kwarteng just decided to give up |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 17, 2024 17:50:38 GMT
The last paragraph is laughable. The right of the Conservative party is a constant proponent of illiberalism, from championing brexit though to the constant erosion of personal rights and now the not too thinly veiled assault on the rule of law. The modern Conservative party are basically a bunch of hate filled petty autocrats who spend their time despising large sections of society. Nah, the Conservative Party is just people who think that socialism whatever the Labour Party is proposing won't work. Some think it's too fast, some think it shouldn't go any further and others want to reverse it. The reasons are many and varied, and there are certainly a fair few authoritarians of various stripes, but a large chunk are basically economic liberals (and neoliberals and libertarians if we're going to go fine grained) and lately a growing proportion of people who would be called social liberals if the term hadn't been already taken - but who are essentially sceptical of government intervention across the social sphere whether it's about gay relationships or fox hunting. The Conservatives have been stealing Whig clothes since the modern Tories were a thing, but they have systematically canibalised Liberal men and measures since Lloyd George. One of the main functions of the Liberal Democrats in the British system is acting as the gateway drug for left wing voters to become Conservative as they get older and sensible. If all that is largely true I shall never return. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 18, 2024 7:09:49 GMT
What chance does James Bagge have of pulling off a Zali Steggall-style scalp? Better than most but not much better...
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Post by batman on Apr 18, 2024 7:47:59 GMT
had to look her up. I'd say the chances are slim. It's weird, Truss is openly if not ridiculed certainly opposed by her own party - all sorts of spokespeople have said her economic policies were the wrong ones, including Sunak himself yesterday at PMQs, and yet still has the official backing of the Conservatives. I still think that Bagge splitting the Tory vote & letting Labour in, or making it very close, is much likelier than him winning himself, though I suspect Truss will just about survive.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Apr 18, 2024 7:59:43 GMT
had to look her up. I'd say the chances are slim. It's weird, Truss is openly if not ridiculed certainly opposed by her own party - all sorts of spokespeople have said her economic policies were the wrong ones, including Sunak himself yesterday at PMQs, and yet still has the official backing of the Conservatives. I still think that Bagge splitting the Tory vote & letting Labour in, or making it very close, is much likelier than him winning himself, though I suspect Truss will just about survive. I think that you have this precisely wrong. If he gets enough traction to wound Truss that will largely be with votes from Tory switchers to Labour and quite a lot of the Labour vote. If Labour weren't as far behind in this seat then a small wound and a big swing may have put Labour in contention, but a small wound here won't be enough and a big wound would put Bagge in second or first. The closest I can see is Billericay in 1997, which wasn't a win and where the Independent Conservative (who was running a more explicit spoiler campaign than Bagge) got a respectable fourth place. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 18, 2024 8:05:48 GMT
What chance does James Bagge have of pulling off a Zali Steggall-style scalp? Better than most but not much better... In Australia there seems to have been a wider market for the ‘Teal independents’ beyond the high profile Tony Abbott scalp, as similar subsequent successes showed I’m not convinced that’s there in the UK, plus the preference system in Australia probably helps it a bit |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 18, 2024 8:51:02 GMT
The Teal independents are basically fishing in the same pool as the Liberal Democrats, whereas this is more analogous to one of those rural independents who sometimes challenges the Nationals in the odd seat.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 18, 2024 9:02:48 GMT
What chance does James Bagge have of pulling off a Zali Steggall-style scalp? Better than most but not much better... Zero. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Apr 18, 2024 9:15:09 GMT
What chance does James Bagge have of pulling off a Zali Steggall-style scalp? Better than most but not much better... Zero. I think it's more a Martin Bell type scalp And Bell was unusual in that the other opposition parties pulled out and Hamilton was mired in sleaze in a way that Truss isn't That said he's got a better chance than Labour The feeling that Truss is somehow alien from this constituency seems strong (albeit a limited sample set) |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Apr 18, 2024 9:17:57 GMT
I think
(a) it’s very hard for outsiders to tell how much traction a candidate like this is getting;
(b) the default assumption is “not enough”;
(c) but the current state of Tory polling and Truss being Truss give some room for doubt.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 18, 2024 9:30:32 GMT
I think (a) it’s very hard for outsiders to tell how much traction a candidate like this is getting; (b) the default assumption is “not enough”; (c) but the current state of Tory polling and Truss being Truss give some room for doubt. No it doesn't. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 18, 2024 11:45:45 GMT
If I were a voter in SW Norfolk, disillusioned with the Conservative Party generally and disliking Liz Truss in particular, my default assumption was that an Independent candidate would have a chance of defeating Truss whereas Labour wouldn’t. The danger is not that the Independent would split the Conservative vote and let in Labour (because the constituency is so vastly safely Conservative anyway, even in a Labour landslide situation); the danger is that Labour would split the opposition vote and let Truss cling on. If the Independent candidate came anywhere near getting a large share of the vote (and possibly winning), he would take large numbers of votes from Labour and Lib Dem voters anyway, as well as disgruntled Conservatives.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 18, 2024 13:49:27 GMT
What chance does James Bagge have of pulling off a Zali Steggall-style scalp? Better than most but not much better... I didn’t know who she is, but anyway Wikipedia days that she was married to David Cameron from 1999 to 2006 |
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 18, 2024 20:01:50 GMT
If I were a voter in SW Norfolk, disillusioned with the Conservative Party generally and disliking Liz Truss in particular, my default assumption was that an Independent candidate would have a chance of defeating Truss whereas Labour wouldn’t. The danger is not that the Independent would split the Conservative vote and let in Labour (because the constituency is so vastly safely Conservative anyway, even in a Labour landslide situation); the danger is that Labour would split the opposition vote and let Truss cling on. If the Independent candidate came anywhere near getting a large share of the vote (and possibly winning), he would take large numbers of votes from Labour and Lib Dem voters anyway, as well as disgruntled Conservatives. In short for Truss to lose there probably needs to be one single anti-Truss candidate whether that's Bagge or Labour. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Apr 18, 2024 20:12:01 GMT
If I were a voter in SW Norfolk, disillusioned with the Conservative Party generally and disliking Liz Truss in particular, my default assumption was that an Independent candidate would have a chance of defeating Truss whereas Labour wouldn’t. The danger is not that the Independent would split the Conservative vote and let in Labour (because the constituency is so vastly safely Conservative anyway, even in a Labour landslide situation); the danger is that Labour would split the opposition vote and let Truss cling on. If the Independent candidate came anywhere near getting a large share of the vote (and possibly winning), he would take large numbers of votes from Labour and Lib Dem voters anyway, as well as disgruntled Conservatives. In short for Truss to lose there probably needs to be one single anti-Truss candidate whether that's Bagge or Labour. And if it was Labour she'd win |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 18, 2024 20:41:07 GMT
What chance does James Bagge have of pulling off a Zali Steggall-style scalp? Better than most but not much better... I didn’t know who she is, but anyway Wikipedia days that she was married to David Cameron from 1999 to 2006 Zali Steggall is the Independent MP for the Australian division of Warringah and she gained this seat from Tony Abbott, who was Prime Minister of Australia from 2013 to 2015. The David Cameron she was married to by the way is David Allan Cameron, a rower, not the British one. |
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