Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 5:40:19 GMT
Broxbourne was 66% Leave according to estimates, which is, needless to say, much more more Brexity than anywhere else in Herts. Builder influence? I'd be interested in the census figures for manual workers for that seat. I think that's true and you may have some white flight from Enfield LB keeping the area firmly on the right. As I mentioned in my Almanac profile for Broxbourne, it had the second highest proportion of those employed in construction in the country (after Castle Point) So Reform have a. lot to build on. I would implore you to stand as the candidate - I believe you would win and would be a fine MP for the seat (genuinely mean that). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 5:47:58 GMT
I don't really have any connections to that constituency (as opposed to this one)
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2024 8:20:07 GMT
Broxbourne was 66% Leave according to estimates, which is, needless to say, much more more Brexity than anywhere else in Herts. Builder influence? I'd be interested in the census figures for manual workers for that seat. I think that's true and you may have some white flight from Enfield LB keeping the area firmly on the right. As I mentioned in my Almanac profile for Broxbourne, it had the second highest proportion of those employed in construction in the country (after Castle Point) IT workers probably use their hands more often and for longer than many builders each day; so why are they not classed as manual workers? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 8:36:20 GMT
As I mentioned in my Almanac profile for Broxbourne, it had the second highest proportion of those employed in construction in the country (after Castle Point) IT workers probably use their hands more often and for longer than many builders each day; so why are they not classed as manual workers? This is a non sequitur. There is no such thing as 'manual workers' in the Census.. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2024 8:41:02 GMT
IT workers probably use their hands more often and for longer than many builders each day; so why are they not classed as manual workers? This is a non sequitur. There is no such thing as 'manual workers' in the Census.. I know but it was quoted up-thread. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 17, 2024 11:48:28 GMT
I'm not sure if having a lot of people working in the building trades will have helped in Broxbourne this particular election: it... er... certainly wasn't useful for Conservative candidates elsewhere, put it that way (at least where people so employed actually vote). It is fascinating, though, that there is now this striking partial ring of blue tracking the critical inner parts of the Metropolitan Green Belt. It is unlikely to be a simple coincidence. Rather than considering how the constituencies in question differ (and they differ a lot!) it is always best to look for what constituencies have in common. A case where just enough people dislike 'London' even as they're part of it in a functional, economic sense?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 11:51:50 GMT
I'm not sure if having a lot of people working in the building trades will have helped in Broxbourne this particular election: it... er... certainly wasn't useful for Conservative candidates elsewhere, put it that way (at least where people so employed actually vote). It is fascinating, though, that there is now this striking partial ring of blue tracking the critical inner parts of the Metropolitan Green Belt. It is unlikely to be a simple coincidence. Rather than considering how the constituencies in question differ (and they differ a lot!) it is always best to look for what constituencies have in common. A case where just enough people dislike 'London' even as they're part of it in a functional, economic sense? I think what you say has purchase, yes. Couple the fact that you have a lot of white van men (and presumably, women) who were born in Enfield, with ULEZ scepticism (even if said scepticism may be at least partially unfounded) and you have a. recipe for a Tory win even in a drubbing to end all drubbings. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 17, 2024 11:56:44 GMT
As to the label 'manual worker', when my father started work as an electrician they had to drill holes through solid masonry using hand drills: it took hours. These days you get your electric drill out and it buzzes through in seconds. Not many jobs these days rely on the application of physical strength.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 12:00:52 GMT
The rise of manual workers available at the click of a button is buoyed by apps, of course. My grandad never claimed on his insurance and changed every flat tire himself. My other grandad did all his own elections and still would if he could - he was so skilled an electrician I thought that was his job but in fact he worked for Leicester Council his entire career. Both grandads were born in 1931.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 17, 2024 13:57:25 GMT
The rise of manual workers available at the click of a button is buoyed by apps, of course. My grandad never claimed on his insurance and changed every flat tire himself. My other grandad did all his own elections … He did his own elections? How did he manage that? Did he buy his tyres from the USA? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 14:02:24 GMT
The rise of manual workers available at the click of a button is buoyed by apps, of course. My grandad never claimed on his insurance and changed every flat tire himself. My other grandad did all his own elections … He did his own elections? How did he manage that? Did he buy his tyres from the USA? Ironically, I'm having a senior moment. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 17, 2024 17:36:36 GMT
Just realised there are only 3 (!) Conservative seats left in Hertfordshire, all ironically on the border with London. Basically those with a Hindu influence (SW Herts); a Jewish influence (Hertsmere); and a Builder influence (Broxbourne). Quite a few Hindus in Hertsmere as well. Broxbourne feels more spiritually Essex than Hertfordshire and that is reflected in its politics. Yes, something of a North/South divide in Hertfordshire although this phenomenon is being replicated in other Home Counties areas with the Conservatives holding onto the seats closest to Greater London but losing further out eg Berkshire (Windsor), Buckinghamshire (Beaconsfield), Kent (Sevenoaks, Tonbridge), Surrey (Spelthorne, Runnymede). While not disagreeing with the above comments, I would remark that the three remaining Hertfordshire Conservative constituencies, particularly SW Herts, behaved differently from one another in the general election. While the Hindu vote in SW Herts will almost definitely have helped Gagan Mohindra survive, he still got little more than a third of the vote, very vulnerable to either Labour or the Liberal Democrats squeezing the other's vote. What has to have had the most effect on Mohindra's survival is that this didn't happen, presumably because various factors in the constituency's recent history provided conflicting signals about tactical voting. On the old constituency boundaries, both Liberal Democrats and Labour had come second at different times in the 2010s to David Gauke for the Conservatives, and Gauke's own candidacy as an independent after breaking with the Conservatives had left the two other parties with severely depressed and roughly equal votes in 2019. However, the recent boundary review greatly changed the constituency, transferring out nearly half of the old constituency and bringing in a rather smaller area, mostly previously in Watford constituency, to compensate. As Watford has been a bellwether constituency since 1974 (and in the last hundred years, has only failed to go with the governing party in 1929, 1951 and 1970), the tactical anti-Conservative vote there has always been for Labour - and, combined with the 2019 SW Herts result on the old boundaries, produced a notional result on the new boundaries with Labour in second place, despite the constituency on the new boundaries now including the whole of Three Rivers district, which has been under Liberal Democrat majority or minority control consistently since 1986, as more than 90% of its population. So, at the general election, both Labour and the Liberal Democrats got more than their notional 2019 vote shares and, together, over 10% of the vote more than the Conservatives - but rather evenly split between the two parties. Having said that, though, the Liberal Democrats have probably done well enough to establish themselves as the clear second party in SW Herts at future general elections, with a strong possibility of winning SW Herts the next time round if Conservative fortunes do not improve - or at least take back a considerable chunk of Reform's 14% of the vote. By contrast, despite the Conservatives losing control of Hertsmere council in 2023, Oliver Dowden was in little danger of losing Hertsmere constituency, the boundary changes having removed a Liberal Democrat Hertsmere ward from the constituency and replaced it with a safely Conservative Welwyn-Hatfield ward. The swings against the Conservatives in Hertsmere would have been sharp enough to produce a Conservative defeat in, say, Harrow East, but left them with a sharply-reduced but still fairly safe majority in Hertsmere. Reform got nearly 14% of the vote - fractionally under the Hertfordshire average. Broxbourne behaved rather more like Hertsmere than like SW Herts, except in one important respect, already hinted at by heslingtonian - its vote for Reform was the highest in Hertfordshire, with a further dip in the Conservative share of the vote to match. Fortunately for the Conservatives, this only made the seat marginal rather than safe for them - if Reform had been polling at typical Essex levels, there would have been a strong possibility of Labour winning the seat on an almost exactly even three-way split. Having said all that, there clearly is a general phenomenon around London of a narrow ring of Conservative seats immediately outside the GLA boundary - the only exceptions seem to be Epsom and Ewell (Liberal Democrat), South Basildon and East Thurrock (Reform), Thurrock (Labour) and Dartford (Labour). My guess is that, looked at a bit simplistically, this may amount to "peak anti-ULEZ" territory - areas where much of the population mostly misses out on the carrots of GLA transport (and possibly other) policies but gets caught by the sticks. (There are some similar areas within the GLA boundaries, but they tend to be geographically distinctly peripheral.) One needs to be careful not to take this too far - I have already pointed out that SW Herts could easily have gone Liberal Democrat or (somewhat less probably) Labour, and Epping Forest looks as if it could quite possibly have gone Labour but for the absence of a Reform candidate - but it does look like at least one possible cause among others. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 17, 2024 17:50:06 GMT
As to the label 'manual worker', when my father started work as an electrician they had to drill holes through solid masonry using hand drills: it took hours. These days you get your electric drill out and it buzzes through in seconds. Not many jobs these days rely on the application of physical strength. A bit like the phrase "ordinary working people", which seems to be taken to exclude people who actually work if they earn over an unspecified amount. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 17, 2024 18:26:14 GMT
As to the label 'manual worker', when my father started work as an electrician they had to drill holes through solid masonry using hand drills: it took hours. These days you get your electric drill out and it buzzes through in seconds. Not many jobs these days rely on the application of physical strength. A bit like the phrase "ordinary working people", which seems to be taken to exclude people who actually work if they earn over an unspecified amount. The traditional divide between the B and C1 categories and C2, D and E groups was working ‘by brain’ for the former and ‘by hand’ for the latter. This divide has been largely overtaken by technological change. It probably makes little more sense than the former Victorian divide between those who made money ‘in trade’ than those living from income from property. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 17, 2024 18:41:48 GMT
FWIW, Hertsmere was still around a 10% Conservative lead in the 2023 council elections, just with an efficient non-Conservative vote leading to them losing their majority. The margin was surprisingly big, but the fact the Conservatives held on earlier this month is not.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 17, 2024 21:33:19 GMT
A bit like the phrase "ordinary working people", which seems to be taken to exclude people who actually work if they earn over an unspecified amount. The traditional divide between the B and C1 categories and C2, D and E groups was working ‘by brain’ for the former and ‘by hand’ for the latter. This divide has been largely overtaken by technological change. It probably makes little more sense than the former Victorian divide between those who made money ‘in trade’ than those living from income from property. As an "IT Field Engineer" I spend most of my time crawling along floors, mantling and dismantling furniture, dragging cables through holes.  |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 12:31:14 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 15:59:15 GMT
It's not my birthday - you're out by several months |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:03:33 GMT
It's not my birthday - you're out by several months Facebook said it was. How strange. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 13, 2024 16:08:57 GMT
It's not my birthday - you're out by several months Facebook said it was. How strange. I've no idea. I hardly even use Facebook. I can imagine there are perfectly good and obvious reasons why I might not want to reveal my actual date of birth to random people on the internet though. |
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