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Hertsmere
Mar 13, 2024 21:16:42 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:16:42 GMT
Hertsmere
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 15:33:48 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 19, 2024 22:40:27 GMT
Josh Tapper won the Labour Party selection.
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Hertsmere
Mar 21, 2024 15:25:13 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 21, 2024 15:25:13 GMT
Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2024 15:40:04 GMT
I would not rule out a Labour win here, irrespective of the ethnicity of the candidates
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Hertsmere
Mar 21, 2024 16:09:47 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 21, 2024 16:09:47 GMT
What does his religious upbringing have to do with his standing in a seat like this?
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Hertsmere
Mar 21, 2024 16:12:42 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 21, 2024 16:12:42 GMT
I would not rule out a Labour win here, irrespective of the ethnicity of the candidates Isn't it a safe Tory seat?
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Post by matureleft on Mar 21, 2024 16:18:25 GMT
What does his religious upbringing have to do with his standing in a seat like this? I’d rather agree. I note that it seems that the constituency has the third highest Jewish population in the country.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 21, 2024 16:57:17 GMT
Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere You do realise that Hertsmere has quite a considerable Jewish community?
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Hertsmere
Mar 21, 2024 17:01:03 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 21, 2024 17:01:03 GMT
Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere You do realise that Hertsmere has quite a considerable Jewish community? Yes. But it's a very safe seat. 23,000 or so?
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,338
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Post by right on Mar 21, 2024 17:41:16 GMT
Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere You do realise that Hertsmere has quite a considerable Jewish community? I don't think Mike was meaning to connect Judaism to Tapper's chances. It looked more like linking it to his family on Gogglebox. Mike's said a few times that for medical reasons he's no longer able to express himself as clearly as he used to. I realise that it's easy to miss news about other posters even if both are frequent posters, so it's not meant as a "shame on you" post. Let's give the same allowances to Mike as we'd like in the same circumstances.
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Hertsmere
Mar 21, 2024 18:48:10 GMT
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2024 18:48:10 GMT
I agree. I don’t think Mike was saying he would lose because he’s Jewish. I’d say if anything it helps Labour particularly in Borehamwood but also possibly Radlett
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 21, 2024 19:52:45 GMT
I would not rule out a Labour win here, irrespective of the ethnicity of the candidates I would, and I'm prepared for some pretty shocking Labour gains - I really don't think this will be one of them
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2024 20:33:20 GMT
You'll probably turn out to be right, but I think there is a slight outside chance.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 22, 2024 12:29:14 GMT
In the 2023 elections the Tories had 43% of the vote in Hertsmere, compared to 33% for Labour and 22% for the LDs (who did not have a full slate). Compared to the local authority, Bushey North goes out and Northaw and Cuffley comes in, which would strengthen the Tories. I would expect Labour to be able to squeeze the LD vote, but doing it enough to actually win would be unlikely.
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT
I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:
St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold Watford- likely Labour gain Stevenage- likely Labour gain South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition) Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition) Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition) Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition) Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2
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Hertsmere
Mar 22, 2024 22:36:41 GMT
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 22, 2024 22:36:41 GMT
The one I'm least sure about is Hertford & Stortford. From what I have heard the Conservative MP there is really unpopular even with many in her local Party but the opposition could well be split three ways as the Lib Dems, Labour and the Greens all have strong local representation. That could let the Conservatives through on a low percentage.
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Hertsmere
Mar 22, 2024 22:46:59 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 22, 2024 22:46:59 GMT
I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this: St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold Watford- likely Labour gain Stevenage- likely Labour gain South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition) Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition) Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition) Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition) Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition) So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2 Interesting Re Hertfordshire SW - perhaps the LibDems have not done better - they are doing quite well given the Three Rivers elections? Maybe David Gauke will recommend the LibDems in 2024 ? Why is the Hertford and Stortford MP so unpopular?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2024 9:15:01 GMT
In the 2023 elections the Tories had 43% of the vote in Hertsmere, compared to 33% for Labour and 22% for the LDs (who did not have a full slate). Compared to the local authority, Bushey North goes out and Northaw and Cuffley comes in, which would strengthen the Tories. I would expect Labour to be able to squeeze the LD vote, but doing it enough to actually win would be unlikely. The Lib Dem vote is almost entirely in Bushey and a lot of it isn't susceptible to voting Labour. Some is - obviously an element of it is natural Labour support that is voting tactically for the Lib Dems locally, more of it is naturally Conservative voters voting in protest mostly over local housing plans (look at the previous results in Bushey Park - those votes didn't come from Labour). There's some core Lib Dem voters who could be squeezed by Labour but they would be found in St James and more so in Bushey North, which is of course being removed
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2024 9:21:35 GMT
I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this: St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold Watford- likely Labour gain Stevenage- likely Labour gain South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition) Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition) Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition) Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition) Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition) So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2 Largely agree with this although I'm not convinced about Harpenden & Berkhamsted. It's obviously a worry, but the Lib Dems record on converting local election success to the parliamentary level is patchy at best. I wouldn't put it as 'likely' on your scale (when you have the same rating for Watford going Labour which I would say is all but certain) - perhaps a toss up or Lib Dem lean at best. I'd put Hitchin on the same level of likelihood of going Labour as Hemel
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