Hertsmere

[heslingtonian]

Mar 22, 2024 22:46:59 GMT Merseymike said:

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Interesting
Re Hertfordshire SW - perhaps the LibDems have not done better - they are doing quite well given the Three Rivers elections? Maybe David Gauke will recommend the LibDems in 2024 ?

Why is the Hertford and Stortford MP so unpopular?

Re: South West Hertfordshire, the Lib Dems will never have a better chance of converting their dominance in Three Rivers into national politics however given the very strong Conservative vote in areas like Moor Park, Rickmansworth and Kings Langley (which has been added to the seat) it will be a tough nut to crack.

Re: Julie Marson I have heard that she's very much seen as a carpetbagger who was selected immediately before the 2019 election and has subsequently failed to put down local roots. I've heard this from local politicians on all sides including Conservatives (who claim they rarely see her). Also she is very much a Brexiteer on the Right of the Party (she even named her dog after Boris Johnson) and this type of politics don't always go down well in the relatively affluent Home Counties. There was an attempt to deselect her by some in her Association but that didn't succeed.

[Peter Wilkinson]

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Very unlikely? Yes. Inconceivable? Not quite, though it would require an almost incredibly bad national result for the Conservatives - almost certainly less than 100 seats, with only Broxbourne, within Hertfordshire, having even the remotest chance of being held - and (unless the Conservative national result was distinctly worse than that) probably also a disastrous local campaign (say, something like a late and incompetently-handled substitution of candidate), with enough Conservative support either sitting out the election or defecting to Reform (or elsewhere) to allow Labour to take the seat on only about a third of the vote. I am not expecting to happen (I'd put the likelihood at less than 1%), and I would certainly not suggest diverting Labour resources into Hertsmere just in case, when there are half a dozen better prospects in Hertfordshire alone. But, under current circumstances, it does look like the kind of "unconceivable" result that has happened somewhere in most recent general elections.

[heslingtonian]

Mar 23, 2024 9:21:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Largely agree with this although I'm not convinced about Harpenden & Berkhamsted. It's obviously a worry, but the Lib Dems record on converting local election success to the parliamentary level is patchy at best. I wouldn't put it as 'likely' on your scale (when you have the same rating for Watford going Labour which I would say is all but certain) - perhaps a toss up or Lib Dem lean at best. I'd put Hitchin on the same level of likelihood of going Labour as Hemel

The three main towns in Harpenden & Berkhamsted are the two eponymous settlements and Tring. All three are now voting Lib Dem pretty strongly at local government level. While I do appreciate that people often vote differently at General Elections, Labour are very weak in all of these places and the Lib Dems are well placed to benefit from tactical voting. Also there's no incumbent MP with both Gagan Mohindra (who I believe lives in Tring) and Bim Afolami deciding to stand elsewhere. That's quite telling as well for me.

[heslingtonian]

Mar 23, 2024 14:14:15 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Very unlikely? Yes. Inconceivable? Not quite, though it would require an almost incredibly bad national result for the Conservatives - almost certainly less than 100 seats, with only Broxbourne, within Hertfordshire, having even the remotest chance of being held - and (unless the Conservative national result was distinctly worse than that) probably also a disastrous local campaign (say, something like a late and incompetently-handled substitution of candidate), with enough Conservative support either sitting out the election or defecting to Reform (or elsewhere) to allow Labour to take the seat on only about a third of the vote. I am not expecting to happen (I'd put the likelihood at less than 1%), and I would certainly not suggest diverting Labour resources into Hertsmere just in case, when there are half a dozen better prospects in Hertfordshire alone. But, under current circumstances, it does look like the kind of "unconceivable" result that has happened somewhere in most recent general elections.

I agree that if the Conservatives are down to 50 seats or less then Hertsmere will be at risk of falling but in that scenario probably everywhere bar John Hayes's seat is at risk. I am not convinced that the local factors make this seat especially at risk and I'd argue the Government's perceived strong support for Israel and the increasing number of affluent Hindus moving into Hertsmere from places like Harrow and Hillingdon plus the large number of private schools in the area probably all bode well for a Conservative hold. Plus while I'm not a big fan of Oliver Dowden he doesn't strike me as an obvious hate figure either who is likely to generate a negative personal vote. Barring a total meltdown (which cannot be entirely ruled out), it's a Conservative hold for me at this stage.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 23, 2024 14:14:15 GMT Peter Wilkinson said:

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Very unlikely? Yes. Inconceivable? Not quite, though it would require an almost incredibly bad national result for the Conservatives - almost certainly less than 100 seats, with only Broxbourne, within Hertfordshire, having even the remotest chance of being held - and (unless the Conservative national result was distinctly worse than that) probably also a disastrous local campaign (say, something like a late and incompetently-handled substitution of candidate), with enough Conservative support either sitting out the election or defecting to Reform (or elsewhere) to allow Labour to take the seat on only about a third of the vote. I am not expecting to happen (I'd put the likelihood at less than 1%), and I would certainly not suggest diverting Labour resources into Hertsmere just in case, when there are half a dozen better prospects in Hertfordshire alone. But, under current circumstances, it does look like the kind of "unconceivable" result that has happened somewhere in most recent general elections.

As I observed near the top of the thread, this seat is now safer than Broxbourne on paper. I don't think it is only 'on paper' either, as the nature of Broxbourne is such that there are more swing voters and I think Cheshunt in particular is starting to develop some Enfield like demographics in part. True Labour have a bigger reservoir of support in Borehamwood but thats already priced in and there are large parts of the constituency which are very resistant to Labour because they're both heavily Jewish and very wealthy - Radlett, Elstree, parts of Bushey. Plus Cuffley now of course.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Labour will gain Broxbourne or even be that close, but it would surprise me less if they did than if they gained this seat.

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD
1974	43.9%	29.9%	26.3%
1974	46.1%	33.6%	20.3%
1979	58.3%	27.2%	13.4%
1983	56.6%	18.0%	23.4%
1987	59.6%	18.5%	21.9%
1992	59.9%	22.4%	17.1%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Grn	BNP
1997	46.0%	37.8%	11.4%	3.4%
2001	49.9%	35.2%	13.6%
2005	55.2%	26.7%	16.4%
2010	58.1%	18.7%	15.4%	3.6%		3.0%
2015	61.2%	21.2%	5.1%	12.4%
2017	63.1%	27.2%	4.9%	2.9%	1.9%
2019	64.9%	21.1%	10.9%		3.1%

[Pete Whitehead]

www.hertsmere.gov.uk/Documents/11-Your-Council/Democracy-Elections/2024-UKPGE/NoticeOfPollAndPersonsNominatedAndPollingLocations-2024-06-06-17-04.pdf

Five main parties and one Independent

[Deleted]

CON 46%
LAB 45%
LD 4%
REF 2%
GRN 2%
OTH 1%

Vat on private school fees will save the Tories here. I think Dowden will win by about 300 votes after a recount. I just listened to en except from the hustings.

[rcronald]

Jun 24, 2024 6:54:45 GMT @weld said:

CON 46%
LAB 45%
LD 4%
REF 2%
GRN 2%
OTH 1%

Vat on private school fees will save the Tories here. I think Dowden will win by about 300 votes after a recount. I just listened to en except from the hustings.

I agree with you on the Tory victory part, but not the actual vote shares.

[Deleted]

Would Labour narrowly losing this seat be worth losing seats to pro-Gaza independents? Genuine question. In 1997 and 2001, Labour kept both camps on side. 

[rcronald]

Jun 24, 2024 7:08:17 GMT @weld said:

Would Labour narrowly losing this seat be worth losing seats to pro-Gaza independents? Genuine question. In 1997 and 2001, Labour kept both camps on side. 

It’s not just this seat, it also Harrow East (where I think that Tories are favoured), Finchley & Golders Green (where I think Labour is favoured), and possibly Hendon (where Labour is going to win, but would have had a decent chance of losing if they took a corbynista approach to foreign policy).

[Deleted]

Jun 24, 2024 7:13:05 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 24, 2024 7:08:17 GMT @weld said:

Would Labour narrowly losing this seat be worth losing seats to pro-Gaza independents? Genuine question. In 1997 and 2001, Labour kept both camps on side. 

It’s not just this seat, it also Harrow East (where I think that Tories are narrowly favoured), Finchley & Golders Green (where I think Labour is favoured), and possibly Hendon (where Labour is going to win, but would have had a decent chance of losing if they took a corbynista approach to foreign policy).

I've got a bet on Bob Blackman limping home in Harrow East, but they wouldn't let me put much on it, so a small profit if it comes off. I think it'll be like Hendon 2010.

[Ports]

Jun 24, 2024 6:54:45 GMT @weld said:

CON 46%
LAB 45%
LD 4%
REF 2%
GRN 2%
OTH 1%

I'm not sure the Reform and Lib Dem vote can be squeezed that much at all, and I very much doubt it will.

[right]

Greens pushing Conservatives be going to lose

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19926/

[Pete Whitehead]

I was pleased with this result - although I am not a supporter of the current Conservative party, one naturally does not like to see ones home area represnted by a Labour MP. I didn't think Labour ever did pose much of a threat, but I thought the victory would still be narrower than it was. I think the 44.7% Conservative share here is one of the highest in the country (albeit dwarfed by neighbouring Harrow East).

[rr]

Jul 5, 2024 11:33:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I was pleased with this result - although I am not a supporter of the current Conservative party, one naturally does not like to see ones home area represnted by a Labour MP. I didn't think Labour ever did pose much of a threat, but I thought the victory would still be narrower than it was. I think the 44.7% Conservative share here is one of the highest in the country (albeit dwarfed by neighbouring Harrow East).

Just realised there are only 3 (!) Conservative seats left in Hertfordshire, all ironically on the border with London.

Basically those with a Hindu influence (SW Herts); a Jewish influence (Hertsmere); and a Builder influence (Broxbourne).

[batman]

Pete called this one right. I thought it had the potential to be close, but it really wasn't.

[heslingtonian]

Jul 16, 2024 13:15:38 GMT rr said:

Jul 5, 2024 11:33:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I was pleased with this result - although I am not a supporter of the current Conservative party, one naturally does not like to see ones home area represnted by a Labour MP. I didn't think Labour ever did pose much of a threat, but I thought the victory would still be narrower than it was. I think the 44.7% Conservative share here is one of the highest in the country (albeit dwarfed by neighbouring Harrow East).

Just realised there are only 3 (!) Conservative seats left in Hertfordshire, all ironically on the border with London.

Basically those with a Hindu influence (SW Herts); a Jewish influence (Hertsmere); and a Builder influence (Broxbourne).

Quite a few Hindus in Hertsmere as well. Broxbourne feels more spiritually Essex than Hertfordshire and that is reflected in its politics. Yes, something of a North/South divide in Hertfordshire although this phenomenon is being replicated in other Home Counties areas with the Conservatives holding onto the seats closest to Greater London but losing further out eg Berkshire (Windsor), Buckinghamshire (Beaconsfield), Kent (Sevenoaks, Tonbridge), Surrey (Spelthorne, Runnymede).

[Deleted]

Jul 16, 2024 14:21:44 GMT heslingtonian said:

Jul 16, 2024 13:15:38 GMT rr said:

Just realised there are only 3 (!) Conservative seats left in Hertfordshire, all ironically on the border with London.

Basically those with a Hindu influence (SW Herts); a Jewish influence (Hertsmere); and a Builder influence (Broxbourne).

Quite a few Hindus in Hertsmere as well. Broxbourne feels more spiritually Essex than Hertfordshire and that is reflected in its politics. Yes, something of a North/South divide in Hertfordshire although this phenomenon is being replicated in other Home Counties areas with the Conservatives holding onto the seats closest to Greater London but losing further out eg Berkshire (Windsor), Buckinghamshire (Beaconsfield), Kent (Sevenoaks, Tonbridge), Surrey (Spelthorne, Runnymede).

Broxbourne was 66% Leave according to estimates, which is, needless to say, much more more Brexity than anywhere else in Herts. Builder influence? I'd be interested in the census figures for manual workers for that seat. I think that's true and you may have some white flight from Enfield LB keeping the area firmly on the right. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 17, 2024 3:18:57 GMT @weld said:

Jul 16, 2024 14:21:44 GMT heslingtonian said:

Quite a few Hindus in Hertsmere as well. Broxbourne feels more spiritually Essex than Hertfordshire and that is reflected in its politics. Yes, something of a North/South divide in Hertfordshire although this phenomenon is being replicated in other Home Counties areas with the Conservatives holding onto the seats closest to Greater London but losing further out eg Berkshire (Windsor), Buckinghamshire (Beaconsfield), Kent (Sevenoaks, Tonbridge), Surrey (Spelthorne, Runnymede).

Broxbourne was 66% Leave according to estimates, which is, needless to say, much more more Brexity than anywhere else in Herts. Builder influence? I'd be interested in the census figures for manual workers for that seat. I think that's true and you may have some white flight from Enfield LB keeping the area firmly on the right. 

As I mentioned in my Almanac profile for Broxbourne, it had the second highest proportion of those employed in construction in the country (after Castle Point)