Hertsmere

[stb12]

Hertsmere

[Pete Whitehead]

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Feb 18, 2024 22:35:28 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census, new boundaries

Age 65+ 18.5% 316/575
Owner occupied 66.2% 281/575
Private rented 16.9% 336/575
Social rented 16.8% 220/575
White 78.0% 424/575
Black 4.8% 140/575
Asian 9.6% 162/575
Jewish 16.9% 2/575
Managerial & professional 39.4% 122/575
Routine & Semi-routine 16.2% 503/575
Degree level 39.3% 124/575
No qualifications 16.2% 364/575
Students 7.0% 194/575

2019 General Election

Con	32,651	62.5%
Lab	11,338	21.7%
LD	6,561	12.6%
Grn	1,653	3.2%
Majority	21,313	40.8%

Boundary Changes
Hertsmere consists of
92.4% of Hertsmere
6.0% of Broxbourne
0.5% of Welwyn Hatfield

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_070_Hertsmere_Landscape.pdf


Notional result 2019 (Rallings/Thrasher)

Con	34083	64.9%
Lab	11103	21.1%
LD	5713	10.9%
Grn	1614	3.1%
Maj	22980	43.8%

Candidates:

Conservative - Oliver Dowden (incumbent)
Labour - none selected*
Lib Dem - Emma Mantale
Reform UK - Darren Selkus

* Labour select tomorrow events.labour.org.uk/event/411693
Candidates Josh Tapper and Louis Trupp


This is now the safest Conservative seat in Hertfordshire folliwing boundary changes

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Josh Tapper won the Labour Party selection.

[Merseymike]

Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere

[batman]

I would not rule out a Labour win here, irrespective of the ethnicity of the candidates

[LDCaerdydd]

What does his religious upbringing have to do with his standing in a seat like this?

[Merseymike]

Mar 21, 2024 15:40:04 GMT batman said:

I would not rule out a Labour win here, irrespective of the ethnicity of the candidates

Isn't it a safe Tory seat?

[matureleft]

Mar 21, 2024 16:09:47 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

What does his religious upbringing have to do with his standing in a seat like this?

I’d rather agree. I note that it seems that the constituency has the third highest Jewish population in the country. 

[finsobruce]

Mar 21, 2024 15:25:13 GMT Merseymike said:

Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere

You do realise that Hertsmere has quite a considerable Jewish community?

[Merseymike]

Mar 21, 2024 16:57:17 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 21, 2024 15:25:13 GMT Merseymike said:

Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere

You do realise that Hertsmere has quite a considerable Jewish community?

Yes. But it's a very safe seat. 23,000 or so?

[right]

Mar 21, 2024 16:57:17 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 21, 2024 15:25:13 GMT Merseymike said:

Josh Tapper was in Gogglebox with his family - he is Jewish, I guess he won't win in Hertsmere

You do realise that Hertsmere has quite a considerable Jewish community?

I don't think Mike was meaning to connect Judaism to Tapper's chances.  It looked more like linking it to his family on Gogglebox.

Mike's said a few times that for medical reasons he's no longer able to express himself as clearly as he used to.  I realise that it's easy to miss news about other posters even if both are frequent posters, so it's not meant as a "shame on you" post.

Let's give the same allowances to Mike as we'd like in the same circumstances.

[batman]

I agree. I don’t think Mike was saying he would lose because he’s Jewish. I’d say if anything it helps Labour particularly in Borehamwood but also possibly Radlett

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 21, 2024 15:40:04 GMT batman said:

I would not rule out a Labour win here, irrespective of the ethnicity of the candidates

I would, and I'm prepared for some pretty shocking Labour gains - I really don't think this will be one of them

[batman]

You'll probably turn out to be right, but I think there is a slight outside chance.

[East Anglian Lefty]

In the 2023 elections the Tories had 43% of the vote in Hertsmere, compared to 33% for Labour and 22% for the LDs (who did not have a full slate). Compared to the local authority, Bushey North goes out and Northaw and Cuffley comes in, which would strengthen the Tories. I would expect Labour to be able to squeeze the LD vote, but doing it enough to actually win would be unlikely.

[heslingtonian]

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

[heslingtonian]

The one I'm least sure about is Hertford & Stortford. From what I have heard the Conservative MP there is really unpopular even with many in her local Party but the opposition could well be split three ways as the Lib Dems, Labour and the Greens all have strong local representation. That could let the Conservatives through on a low percentage.

[Merseymike]

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Interesting
Re Hertfordshire SW - perhaps the LibDems have not done better - they are doing quite well given the Three Rivers elections? Maybe David Gauke will recommend the LibDems in 2024 ?

Why is the Hertford and Stortford MP so unpopular?

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 22, 2024 12:29:14 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

In the 2023 elections the Tories had 43% of the vote in Hertsmere, compared to 33% for Labour and 22% for the LDs (who did not have a full slate). Compared to the local authority, Bushey North goes out and Northaw and Cuffley comes in, which would strengthen the Tories. I would expect Labour to be able to squeeze the LD vote, but doing it enough to actually win would be unlikely.

The Lib Dem vote is almost entirely in Bushey and a lot of it isn't susceptible to voting Labour. Some is - obviously an element of it is natural Labour support that is voting tactically for the Lib Dems locally, more of it is naturally Conservative voters voting in protest mostly over local housing plans (look at the previous results in Bushey Park - those votes didn't come from Labour). There's some core Lib Dem voters who could be squeezed by Labour but they would be found in St James and more so in Bushey North, which is of course being removed

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 22, 2024 22:26:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

I think this is one of two seats in Hertfordshire where a Conservative loss is inconceivable. The other being Broxbourne. I would still make them favourites in the new South West Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire North East as well. I'd currently assess the Hertfordshire seats as this:

St Albans- certain Lib Dem hold
Watford- likely Labour gain
Stevenage- likely Labour gain
South West Hertfordshire- leans Conservative (Lib Dem main opposition)
Harpenden & Berkhamsted- likely Lib Dem gain
Hemel Hempstead- leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hertsmere- likely Conservative hold
Broxbourne- likely Conservative hold
Welwyn Hatfield - leans Labour (Conservative main opposition)
Hitchin - Toss up between Conservative and Labour
Hertfordshire North East - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)
Hertford & Stortford - leans Conservative (Labour main opposition)

So I'd expect something like Labour 4, Conservative 5, Lib Dems 2

Largely agree with this although I'm not convinced about Harpenden & Berkhamsted. It's obviously a worry, but the Lib Dems record on converting local election success to the parliamentary level is patchy at best. I wouldn't put it as 'likely' on your scale (when you have the same rating for Watford going Labour which I would say is all but certain) - perhaps a toss up or Lib Dem lean at best. I'd put Hitchin on the same level of likelihood of going Labour as Hemel