Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 16, 2024 9:45:48 GMT
I did not refer to the future (which is always uncertain), merely the present.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jul 16, 2024 10:13:18 GMT
I did not refer to the future (which is always uncertain), merely the present. Fair enough, but floors and ceilings by their nature refer to future levels of support I think that ceiling could break far sooner than most expect with a bad pick of a Tory leader |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 10:14:39 GMT
So a fair few rundown shitholes with Reform MPs. They got fewer MPs than I thought, honestly. No Thurrock. No Castle Point. Nothing in Kent.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 16, 2024 11:22:35 GMT
It's very interesting that Reform won this seat and not Castle Point which was by far and away better for them and had more Tory voters to eat into. I wonder if there was a 'Farage in Clacton' affect. The assertion that Castle Point was "better for them" is simply false and demonstrates a profound misunderstanding of where Reform has the most potential. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 11:46:56 GMT
It's very interesting that Reform won this seat and not Castle Point which was by far and away better for them and had more Tory voters to eat into. I wonder if there was a 'Farage in Clacton' affect. The assertion that Castle Point was "better for them" is simply false and demonstrates a profound misunderstanding of where Reform has the most potential. As in, "better for them" going off history for UKIP - I'm not denying electoral reality in the year of our lord 2019. I said that because it seemed like Farage's lot could cannibalise more right wing votes in places like Canvey Island and Basildon than Boston or Yarmouth. I was somewhat off the mark. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 16, 2024 14:37:37 GMT
The assertion that Castle Point was "better for them" is simply false and demonstrates a profound misunderstanding of where Reform has the most potential. As in, "better for them" going off history for UKIP - I'm not denying electoral reality in the year of our lord 2019. I said that because it seemed like Farage's lot could cannibalise more right wing votes in places like Canvey Island and Basildon than Boston or Yarmouth. I was somewhat off the mark. The massive UKIP vote in Castle Point in 2015 was something of an anomaly due to the Bob Spink factor. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 17:01:49 GMT
As in, "better for them" going off history for UKIP - I'm not denying electoral reality in the year of our lord 2019. I said that because it seemed like Farage's lot could cannibalise more right wing votes in places like Canvey Island and Basildon than Boston or Yarmouth. I was somewhat off the mark. The massive UKIP vote in Castle Point in 2015 was something of an anomaly due to the Bob Spink factor. Ok. Maybe they should merge with the Canvey Island independents - Castle Point Personal Independence Party - Reform Alliance. |
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