right
Conservative
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Clacton
Jun 4, 2024 5:03:51 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 4, 2024 5:03:51 GMT
I don't think Farage would have done this without some constituency polling demonstrating he had at least a punchers chance of winning. On the other hand I don't think he does have much of a chance of winning because Reform won't be able to put together a decent local campaign and will still face some degree of squeeze. They'll bus people in to do the street pounding but I don't think they'll be able to push local buttons as Galloway was (not just with Muslims, I mean the way he could bring up issues important to other voters). Not so sure about a squeeze as it's quite likely that Reform will be perceived as being the challenger rather than third party. But I agree with the rest. This is the weakness of the Farage model. UKIP's rather extreme internal democracy could be an obstacle at times but it meant there was local initiative and so some life between elections. Carswell had bequeathed quite a vibrant local party but there's little sign of that in council results, although from memory there were recent council candidacies for Reform, UKIP and Tendring First which is more than most of the country. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2024 5:04:18 GMT
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Post by noorderling on Jun 4, 2024 5:06:42 GMT
But the point is that the party doesn't choose. Farage does. Technically, it’s not even a party, it’s a company that he owns, which allows him to do whatever he wants. Here’s an article back in December that talks about how reform operates behind the scenes unherd.com/2023/12/nigel-farages-plan-for-power/Like Wilders, who’s the only PVV member. He would never step down, but as a Dutch MP he does not have a constituency to take care of. |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 4, 2024 5:18:06 GMT
I think Farage will win - just about. One clue of the strength of the pro hard Brexit/anti immigration vote here is the performance in GE2019 by the prospective parliamentary candidate for the Brexit Party, Andy Morgan. He stood nevertheless, (as an Independent ofc) after being left upset when Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced the party would not be standing in 317 Conservative-held seats. He ended up with 1100 votes, 2.5% which is darn good (& he had no previous election record I believe) And ofc Clacton is the only constituency where a party associated with Farage has ever won a parliamentary seat (2014 by election). Incorrect. In 2014 Reckless won the Rochester and Strood by-election for UKIP. This is the only seat UKIP ever won in a General Election, when Carswell held his seat in 2015. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 4, 2024 5:52:23 GMT
Ty yes 2015 GE, Clacton, Carswell. I've corrected my post, plse delete your post.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 4, 2024 6:44:29 GMT
This is receiving an admonishment for hyperbole from the leading professor emeritus in the field. But yes I especially would like to see him lose precisely because of his ‘effect’. On so many people. There is no joy in seeing ineffective right wing politicians fail, like there is no joy in seeing a lame horse betted against lose a race. The scenario you set out wouldn't constitute a "humiliation" for Farage. A loss by a single vote would see him ranting about a conspiracy to deny him the win which his supporters and the media would lap up. Plus he doesn't then have to perform the role of a constituency MP. It's basically the ideal result for him. It's very Boris of him. Just get into the club and use it to make money. |
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Post by monksfield on Jun 4, 2024 7:15:22 GMT
I really hope the result is 30% Labour + 1 vote 30% Farage 30% Tory 5% LD 5% Green In that order! I could die happy Why's everyone thinking that Farage solely took lumps out of the Tories? Because the realignment basically already happened |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 4, 2024 7:29:15 GMT
Even if you're right, and I don't think you are, there is a reason he succeeds despite all you say. It's because around 20% of the electorate feels so ignored by the traditional parties that he and his party is still the best option. To many he gives hope where others politicians just turn off the lights and fart your face. Though I get where you're coming from, this is mostly complete bobbins. Much like Trump, Farage has weaponised nostalgia and turned it into a grift. He's not a man of the people, he's a wealthy ex-banker who can travel the world and get the ear of similarly wealthy people, and he did so wearing the mask of "the bloke down the pub." Brexit was his baby through manipulation and scare stories, the consequences of which will be felt for years to come. Like Trump, he's a trader in grievance and revenge, and we know from the quote he gave The Times in March that he's got no actual interest in being an MP. He's just a chaos agent.
I never say he isn't a chameleon, but you have to ask why he appeals when others don't.
Because he is charismatic, plus he saying something other parties aren't. He's appealing to those who are ignored. Both main parties are to blame for this as the Conservatives and Labour have both so alienated a section of their historical support that Farage manages to reach out to former supporters of both main parties.
Brexit happened because the main parties, didn't think Brexit would win, because they were lazy and couldn't be bothered to put in a little work to convince 3% more people why it was worth staying in the EU. Me for example. You can blame Farage for Brexit, but it's a self deceiving lie.
Farage is not a trader in revenge, but he is definately tapping into grievance, you have to ask yourself why these greivances exist for him to tap into.
again with historical quotes, people change their mind, it's allowed. I've voted Labour, Lib Dem, Green, NHS, Independent, Conservative, SDP, Yorkshire, etc in my life, I've change my mind a lot, it's allowed.
Farage, doesn't particularly appeal to me as a person, he's a bit to slick for me, but he works for a reason, because nobody else is listening to a substansial proportion of the elctorate.
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Post by observer on Jun 4, 2024 8:36:56 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left.
Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause.
I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it.
It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct.
They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument.
I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2024 8:40:35 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such vile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about themThat's because for a lot of people: Farage = change candidate / chaos agent. Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron = status quo managers. |
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Clacton
Jun 4, 2024 8:52:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 4, 2024 8:52:46 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such vile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about themThat's because for a lot of people: Farage = change candidate / chaos agent. Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron = status quo managers. Nail on head. Can we draw the conclusion from that that they are all actually alike? That their 'differences' are minor and just for show? I think we can. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 4, 2024 8:57:16 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. The idea that Farage is some kind of rebel against an elite is laughable. He is the elite. You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy theorist, rallying against "an elite" while fully supporting a globe trotting politician whose best friends include Viktor Orban and Donald Trump. You can keep your elites, and I'll support mainstream politicians. |
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Clacton
Jun 4, 2024 9:08:23 GMT
via mobile
Jack likes this
Post by observer on Jun 4, 2024 9:08:23 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. The idea that Farage is some kind of rebel against an elite is laughable. He is the elite. You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy theorist, rallying against "an elite" while fully supporting a globe trotting politician whose best friends include Viktor Orban and Donald Trump. You can keep your elites, and I'll support mainstream politicians. Ah, conspiracy theorist! Of course! Easier, I suppose, to resort to abuse than address the points raised. Like coronavirus. Like lockdowns. Like vaccine damage. Is questioning, thinking, discussing, open debate a conspiracy theory or just intelligence? Thin stuff. The 'elites' as you call them are, incidentally, yours not mine. You and the 'mainstream politicians,support them. Hence you can't stand them being questioned. It's called democracy |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368 
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jun 4, 2024 9:42:45 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. well maybe used reasoned arguments yourself instead of using silly phrases like “the so-called left” and wokies. You know that talking about woke/wokies is a substitute for reasoned argument, surely. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 4, 2024 9:53:43 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. The idea that Farage is some kind of rebel against an elite is laughable. He is the elite. You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy theorist, rallying against "an elite" while fully supporting a globe trotting politician whose best friends include Viktor Orban and Donald Trump. You can keep your elites, and I'll support mainstream politicians.
No Farage isn't a rebel against the elite your correct, he's voicing that for his own reasons, ego being one of the I suspect. I would agree that in many ways Farage is part of the Elite, it is that fact that enables him to have the time to say something other than that said by the establishment parties.
It is very interesting that Farage is so disliked, vehemently, unlike Tice, even though the message is the same. Maybe it's because he's rocking the establishment's boat, which people don't like. Farage is an interesting character, part of the elite, someone who has used the establishment, but not of the establishment.
I wouldn't expect you to agree with Farage, Trump, Orban, but they do give people a voice, not otherwise heard. Sometimes grievances need a voice, sometimes that leads to positive outcomes and sometimes not so much and even very negative ones. I do think it would be useful for those who dislike him a lot to ponder, to consider carefully why his message, Reform UK's message works. It will benefit other parties to do so, so they can construct policies that parties that carry society forwards, benefit society and don't alienate wide chunks of it.
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Post by observer on Jun 4, 2024 10:01:46 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. well maybe used reasoned arguments yourself instead of using silly phrases like “the so-called left” and wokies. You know that talking about woke/wokies is a substitute for reasoned argument, surely. The use of the word 'wokies' is simply a description of those who are woke. My use of 'so-called Left' is because the 'Left' had abandoned its position on so many things and now finds itself in support of positions and people it traditionally opposed |
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Clacton
Jun 4, 2024 10:06:58 GMT
via mobile
Post by rcronald on Jun 4, 2024 10:06:58 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. The idea that Farage is some kind of rebel against an elite is laughable. He is the elite. You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy theorist, rallying against "an elite" while fully supporting a globe trotting politician whose best friends include Viktor Orban and Donald Trump. You can keep your elites, and I'll support mainstream politicians. you almost made a decently good point, but then you hyperboled it into joker territory. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 4, 2024 10:11:28 GMT
The idea that Farage is some kind of rebel against an elite is laughable. He is the elite. You're sounding more and more like a conspiracy theorist, rallying against "an elite" while fully supporting a globe trotting politician whose best friends include Viktor Orban and Donald Trump. You can keep your elites, and I'll support mainstream politicians. you almost made a decently good point, but then you hyperboled it into joker territory. My personal view: Farage is a member of the elite, rebelling against another section of the elite so that his section of the elite can control the elite. Both ‘mainstream politicians’ and Farage are elites. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 4, 2024 10:12:39 GMT
An alternative view from a focus group. Worryingly, much of that they say about Farage could be taken from MAGA-types in the US. Farage is seem as an alternative despite being nothing of the sort, he just cuts through.  [/url] [/url][/div] |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 4, 2024 10:16:17 GMT
What I've noticed is the sheer hatred felt by those on the so-called Left. Farage is the lightning rod for this and not its actual cause. I suspect it's because the wokies, the supra nationalists, the supporters of the billionaire globalist class thought they were getting away with imposing their views without the public noticing...and Farage is calling them out for it. It's as if they know that their public support is very brittle. I'm sure they're correct. They hate him for it and HAVE to shut him down by ridicule and abuse. Not reasoned argument. I never see ordinary voters reacting with such bile and hatred. I, for one, dislike Starmer, Sunak, Lammy, Cameron...but I simply don't feel the need to haunt social media with alleged tales about them. Most don't. well maybe used reasoned arguments yourself instead of using silly phrases like “the so-called left” and wokies. You know that talking about woke/wokies is a substitute for reasoned argument, surely. But all sides do that. 'Fruit cakes, nut jobs, golf club cronies, uber Zionists, commies, tankies, quinoa and avocado toast classes, Metropolitan elite, Grauniad readers, Express and Mail reading classes, the Blob, the Lump, the uber woke and Vegans! We all know the underlying disparagement and contempt reserved by the user in each case. Some feel piercing hurts and other shrug it off or don't even notice. Childish up to a point? Yes. But those are all signifiers of a sterotype and there would be no cut through if there were not underlying observable traits. Many here may see me as a latter day Dennis Thatcher, propping up bars in golf clubs, gulping gin, whilst wearing a blazer and cavalry twill trousers? I have never worn a blazer since school; never played golf; have no cronies; and hardly ever drink gin. But none of that is the point. I am deemed to be thus and I am seen as thus. We all tend to do this and some like Dok do it in their very sleep. |
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