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Post by matureleft on Jun 3, 2024 21:46:00 GMT
I really hope the result is 30% Labour + 1 vote 30% Farage 30% Tory 5% LD 5% Green In that order! I could die happy Why's everyone thinking that Farage solely took lumps out of the Tories? I’d agree. Certainly in the Brexit party experience in some constituencies Labour was a substantial loser. This time Brexit itself is largely absent as an issue and a proportion of the Brexit vote is seemingly regretful anyway. I wouldn’t expect the impact on Labour to be so large but Reform will have a chance of picking up ex-Tory votes that might otherwise have switched to Labour. And constant repetition of the line that Labour has already won, used by Farage today, would certainly lead to some dispersal of potential Labour votes to other parties. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 21:46:33 GMT
Tomorrow's Telegraph:
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edgbaston
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Clacton
Jun 3, 2024 21:47:04 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 3, 2024 21:47:04 GMT
I really hope the result is 30% Labour + 1 vote 30% Farage 30% Tory 5% LD 5% Green In that order! I could die happy Why's everyone thinking that Farage solely took lumps out of the Tories? There’s not much Labour vote to take in Clacton tbf. What is left voted Labour in 19 so must be pretty close to the floor. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 3, 2024 21:48:16 GMT
Leader debates have no constitutional basis and are a recent innovation in UK terms and, of course, we don’t elect a prime minister. Nor do umpteen other parliamentary democracies that have had them for years if not decades. And we've had elections fought as national tussles based on the supporters of particular leaders since at least 1784. So? The point relates to any challenge in UK law as to how such debates are structured. |
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observer
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Post by observer on Jun 3, 2024 21:51:41 GMT
What you call 'nostalgia' is actually a belief in nation-state democracy, of freedom of speech and association, equality before the law etc etc A true belief in the values of liberal democracy. . unlike the fake party that has usurped the name. Odd that some 'Liberal Democrats' hate him so. Is it because he displays their betrayal of liberalism in such stark relief? Embarrassing. He doesn't believe in nation state democracy any more than I believe in aliens from the planet Zog. He's a wealthy chum of the elite who hates everything the UK truly is. He hates freedom of speech, remember the "enemies of the state" stuff about the Brexit court cases? We all know what he truly is, there's a direct line from Nick Griffin to Nigel Farage, wrapping themselves in the Union Jack, wanting to shut down debate, silence critics, and get rich from the fools who funded UKIP, Brexit Party, and now Reform Plc. Neverlet your mind be blinded by hate |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 3, 2024 21:52:26 GMT
It would be really funny if he split the vote just enough to Labour in Has that only just occurred to you? That is pretty much the ENTIRE point of Reform. It is about amassing votes, changing perceptions and the short term direction of the Conservatives, plus the number of seats it can hold. The object is to win votes and minds and to destroy the lefty social democrat pretend conservatives. It is a big ask over a very short period and there will need to be a mass order for dog whistles to get this post-Tice show on the road and up to cut through by July. If they can push to polling parity and then cut ahead of the Conservatives, that party will drop below 100-seats. Reform might win no seats at all and that won't matter. An over large Labour party will be part of the play-book. It will be cocky, triumphal and have raw meat socialist urges. Then it starts to get unpopular and a reformed Reform starts to get closer and to pick up seats. He has left this very late and needs to shift out lots of ammunition on three core subjects and nothing else at all so as to shift perceptions and intentions before the postals arrive on the mats. |
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Ports
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Clacton
Jun 3, 2024 22:03:31 GMT
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Post by Ports on Jun 3, 2024 22:03:31 GMT
So he can just announce that he is party leader, and that's it? Nobody else including Richard Tice gets a say in it? I mean, it's none of my business I guess, but that's pretty odd. I guess as it is a limited company & not a political party in the traditional sense this is open to him. I do wonder whether Farage's announcement was as much of a surprise to Tice as to everyone else. Did he even get told? And as for the candidate who was standing in Clacton, I doubt whether Farage even knew who it was. He was asked about him on Channel 4 news and basically said 'all parties have problematic candidates' which ended any discussion on the topic. |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jun 3, 2024 22:08:32 GMT
Cue a boatload of "Farage is revolting" quips. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 3, 2024 22:12:34 GMT
I really hope the result is 30% Labour + 1 vote 30% Farage 30% Tory 5% LD 5% Green In that order! I could die happy Why's everyone thinking that Farage solely took lumps out of the Tories? Wishful thinking unfortunately. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 3, 2024 22:59:50 GMT
Nothing shines out like a beacon of democracy more than the effective 'owner' of a Limited Company deciding one day that he's bored and just boots out the current "leader" without a by your leave; and of course could impose any policy he likes on the party at a whim, choose or deselect candidates as he so desires and do whatever the hell he likes. Nope, definitely not a massive vanity project! What on earth has it got to do with you? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 3, 2024 23:04:56 GMT
They've been pretty matey in the past. Given the contents of Galloway's recent interviews, I'm not at all surprised. How close Workers and Reform are in most policy terms? Don’t give them ideas. They might start talking about cheeks again… |
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Clacton
Jun 3, 2024 23:17:56 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 3, 2024 23:17:56 GMT
So he can just announce that he is party leader, and that's it? Nobody else including Richard Tice gets a say in it? I mean, it's none of my business I guess, but that's pretty odd. I guess as it is a limited company & not a political party in the traditional sense this is open to him. Yes, he can, for precisely that reason. |
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tomc
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Post by tomc on Jun 3, 2024 23:18:37 GMT
I don't think Farage would have done this without some constituency polling demonstrating he had at least a punchers chance of winning. On the other hand I don't think he does have much of a chance of winning because Reform won't be able to put together a decent local campaign and will still face some degree of squeeze. They'll bus people in to do the street pounding but I don't think they'll be able to push local buttons as Galloway was (not just with Muslims, I mean the way he could bring up issues important to other voters).
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Clacton
Jun 3, 2024 23:25:51 GMT
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Post by norflondon on Jun 3, 2024 23:25:51 GMT
I think Farage will win - just about. One clue of the strength of the pro hard Brexit/anti immigration vote here is the performance in GE2019 by the prospective parliamentary candidate for the Brexit Party, Andy Morgan. He stood nevertheless, (as an Independent ofc) after being left upset when Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced the party would not be standing in 317 Conservative-held seats.
He ended up with 1100 votes, 2.5% which is darn good (& he had no previous election record I believe)
And ofc Clacton is the only constituency where a party associated with Farage has ever won a parliamentary seat (2015 general election).
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 3, 2024 23:43:45 GMT
The humiliation of Farage would bring joy to last a lifetime. Sadly I don’t think it is likely I am sure that the Farage effect means far more to me than it does to you? Yet I have no such feelings about him as a person. 'Joy to last a lifetime'? Really? Do get a life young man. It is something between a 5-day and a 5-year wonder in the footnotes of the 2020s. This is receiving an admonishment for hyperbole from the leading professor emeritus in the field. But yes I especially would like to see him lose precisely because of his ‘effect’. On so many people. There is no joy in seeing ineffective right wing politicians fail, like there is no joy in seeing a lame horse betted against lose a race. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 4, 2024 1:23:19 GMT
So he can just announce that he is party leader, and that's it? Nobody else including Richard Tice gets a say in it? I mean, it's none of my business I guess, but that's pretty odd. I guess as it is a limited company & not a political party in the traditional sense this is open to him. Oh my goodness. It’s almost as if each party chooses for itself what rules it wants to have for choosing its own leader. |
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Post by froome on Jun 4, 2024 2:06:26 GMT
So he can just announce that he is party leader, and that's it? Nobody else including Richard Tice gets a say in it? I mean, it's none of my business I guess, but that's pretty odd. I guess as it is a limited company & not a political party in the traditional sense this is open to him. Oh my goodness. It’s almost as if each party chooses for itself what rules it wants to have for choosing its own leader. But the point is that the party doesn't choose. Farage does. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 4, 2024 2:39:51 GMT
Oh my goodness. It’s almost as if each party chooses for itself what rules it wants to have for choosing its own leader. But the point is that the party doesn't choose. Farage does. Nigel Farage is the party, as also the party Nigel Farage is. |
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Clacton
Jun 4, 2024 2:57:36 GMT
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Post by Johncrane on Jun 4, 2024 2:57:36 GMT
Oh my goodness. It’s almost as if each party chooses for itself what rules it wants to have for choosing its own leader. But the point is that the party doesn't choose. Farage does. Technically, it’s not even a party, it’s a company that he owns, which allows him to do whatever he wants. Here’s an article back in December that talks about how reform operates behind the scenes unherd.com/2023/12/nigel-farages-plan-for-power/ |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 4, 2024 3:11:40 GMT
I am sure that the Farage effect means far more to me than it does to you? Yet I have no such feelings about him as a person. 'Joy to last a lifetime'? Really? Do get a life young man. It is something between a 5-day and a 5-year wonder in the footnotes of the 2020s. This is receiving an admonishment for hyperbole from the leading professor emeritus in the field. But yes I especially would like to see him lose precisely because of his ‘effect’. On so many people. There is no joy in seeing ineffective right wing politicians fail, like there is no joy in seeing a lame horse betted against lose a race. The scenario you set out wouldn't constitute a "humiliation" for Farage. A loss by a single vote would see him ranting about a conspiracy to deny him the win which his supporters and the media would lap up. Plus he doesn't then have to perform the role of a constituency MP. It's basically the ideal result for him. |
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