edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 25, 2024 18:05:25 GMT
He’s done nothing wrong, he clearly wasn’t seeking financial gain or trying to ‘throw the match’.
If there wasn’t a related scandal unfolding in the adjacent party this would be nowhere near headline news. Perhaps an inch in Private Eye at most.
I feel sorry for him.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 25, 2024 18:12:46 GMT
He’s done nothing wrong, he clearly wasn’t seeking financial gain or trying to ‘throw the match’. If there wasn’t a related scandal unfolding in the adjacent party this would be nowhere near headline news. Perhaps an inch in Private Eye at most. I feel sorry for him. It's a pretty minor transgression, and has doubtless happened many times before- but betting on the election is as you point out the story of the news-cycle. Stories like this are like riding the tiger. You can keep on pushing the line, and you might get away with it. But you always invite criticism if something similar happens to one of your own. You sometimes get away with, sometimes it is brief and blows over, sometimes it pushes you onto the back foot. There doesn't seem to be an indication of when he placed this. But any Labour candidate doing this since it blew up must be daft- it was clear that Starmer had drawn a line in the sand and wasn't going to let anyone off. |
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Post by borisminor on Jun 25, 2024 18:40:58 GMT
Apparently the Gambling Commission reported him directly to Labour. But presumably someone knew and grassed. Unless the bookies are running some sort of PEP check! If there is PEP checks then surely most political betting is filtered in some way. At what point would it become insider trading. If after a good response on the doorsteps I became convinced Joe Bloggs would lose his seat then went to Betfred to lump on would that be allowed. If I was a political 'influencer' who liked a bet and then said that I think Joe Bloggs has a chance of winning the seat and the market moved is that insider trading. The line was always vague, and I can see the case for why it was done. If a football manager placed a charity bet on his team to lose he would be banned for a year. I see no reason why this isn't substantially different. What the Labour candidate was clearly stupid, but if exposing candidates who had a bet on the election result is fair game then he is far from the only one. This could be a very slippery slope in the wrong direction. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 25, 2024 18:48:31 GMT
Apparently the Gambling Commission reported him directly to Labour. But presumably someone knew and grassed. Unless the bookies are running some sort of PEP check! If there is PEP checks then surely most political betting is filtered in some way. At what point would it become insider trading. If after a good response on the doorsteps I became convinced Joe Bloggs would lose his seat then went to Betfred to lump on would that be allowed. If I was a political 'influencer' who liked a bet and then said that I think Joe Bloggs has a chance of winning the seat and the market moved is that insider trading. The line was always vague, and I can see the case for why it was done. If a football manager placed a charity bet on his team to lose he would be banned for a year. I see no reason why this isn't substantially different. What the Labour candidate was clearly stupid, but if exposing candidates who had a bet on the election result is fair game then he is far from the only one. This could be a very slippery slope in the wrong direction. I don't think it's the same at all. In the case of an election result you'd be betting on an outcome that hasn't been pre-determined and nobody can absolutely know the result. With the date itself that is determined by a single person or a very tightly knit group. The true comparison would be a Returning Officer somehow betting on a result when the count had been completed but no announcement had been made. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 25, 2024 19:40:31 GMT
Patrick Spencer might end up being both an accidental selection and an accidental MP.
What on earth must he be thinking tonight?
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 25, 2024 19:55:54 GMT
It's just silly. It's developing moral panic vibes. And I fear that it will get sillier. Pretty sure that Richard Wainwright, Liberal and staunch Methodist, bet upon his victory in 1983 Colne Valley. Clement Freud made a good profit from betting on himself to win the July 1973 Isle of Ely by election. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 25, 2024 19:59:19 GMT
I presume it's fairly easy for the bookies to identify all large value political and constituency bets, and then check if the person placing the bet has any significance. Someone attending a PV verification count would surely be likely to get away with betting on a likely outcome! |
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 25, 2024 21:42:12 GMT
Patrick Spencer might end up being both an accidental selection and an accidental MP. What on earth must he be thinking tonight? The seat has a 23k majority so I don’t think he would really class as an ‘accidental’ MP. What was accidental about the selection |
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aargauer
Conservative
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Post by aargauer on Jun 25, 2024 21:55:51 GMT
Patrick Spencer might end up being both an accidental selection and an accidental MP. What on earth must he be thinking tonight? The seat has a 23k majority so I don’t think he would really class as an ‘accidental’ MP. What was accidental about the selection The defection of the previous Tory mp |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Jun 25, 2024 22:01:29 GMT
Tend to agree that it shouldn't be illegal in this very particular situation, but what a stupid and embarrassing thing to do.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 25, 2024 22:16:29 GMT
Not as far as I know, but an investigation by the Gambling Commission is still taking place and after this election such bets probably will be made explicitly illegal. I was going to post similarly. There's a lot of holier-than-thou about this all - if the bookies get stung by operating markets which can be played, then they will lose their money and I don't have much sympathy. The ethics of who can and can't bet on constituency outcomes, a future event, could get really silly. This needs codifying fast, if it's not to become a free for all. Gambling either brings out the worst in human beings or facilitates it in many who would never have stooped vthat low without the incentive. Just ban it and return to the better times in the first half of the 20thC. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 25, 2024 22:22:43 GMT
The seat has a 23k majority so I don’t think he would really class as an ‘accidental’ MP. What was accidental about the selection The defection of the previous Tory mp And then a presumed battle between two other MPs. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 25, 2024 22:45:29 GMT
I only just realised this bloke is someone who's a regular contributor to GB News. I don't much care for him to be honest, but the suspension seems prima facie ridiculous
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Post by batman on Jun 25, 2024 23:07:28 GMT
I had this down as a Con hold before this happened. Absolutely definitely now
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 25, 2024 23:30:22 GMT
Patrick Spencer might end up being both an accidental selection and an accidental MP. What on earth must he be thinking tonight? The seat has a 23k majority so I don’t think he would really class as an ‘accidental’ MP. What was accidental about the selection Tom Hunt, the MP for Ipswich tried to chicken run here but wasn't short listed as CCHQ were trying to get Richard Holden selected here. Holden withdrew just before the selection meeting, presumably having been given the heads up that he would lose. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 26, 2024 0:00:27 GMT
Patrick Spencer might end up being both an accidental selection and an accidental MP. What on earth must he be thinking tonight? The seat has a 23k majority so I don’t think he would really class as an ‘accidental’ MP. What was accidental about the selection There is nothing accidental about being selected after daddy gave 250000 to the party. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 26, 2024 0:35:39 GMT
How are these cases of gambling being discovered? Are the betting companies snitching on their customers?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 26, 2024 2:24:27 GMT
How are these cases of gambling being discovered? Are the betting companies snitching on their customers? If the Gambling Commission asks for data, the betting companies don't have much choice. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 26, 2024 12:43:29 GMT
Tend to agree that it shouldn't be illegal in this very particular situation, but what a stupid and embarrassing thing to do. Yeah, that's pretty much the truth of it. Betting *against yourself* should be strongly discouraged for obvious reasons, even if it is not illegal. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 26, 2024 18:20:15 GMT
As questioned above the PPC for labour must have used an exchange if he bet against himself because as far as I know it is not possible to LAY an outcome with a normal High Street bookmaker either in the shops or online. So I strongly suspect that he has used an exchange in these circumstances. So he will be taking money from people, individuals and not a betting company.
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