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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 25, 2024 16:29:21 GMT
How could a Labour candidate have advanced knowledge of the election if only a handful of close Sunak advisors knew until literally a couple of hours prior to the announcement? At which point, ofc, the speculation was rampant and we all knew it was coming. According to Sky he bet upon the outcome in his constituency. Is that illegal? Pretty sure candidates have done that before and the, sometimes hefty, winnings have paid off their election expenses. I suppose you could have 'inside knowledge' with canvass returns and postal ballot totals but not always accurate. It's just silly. It's developing moral panic vibes. |
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Post by aidypiez on Jun 25, 2024 16:30:39 GMT
Comments suggest that he's placed a bet on winning his own seat. Is that illegal? I bet hundreds of candidates have done that over the years. Doesn't feel like it should be if he's backing himself to win. I guess if he'd bet against himself then ran a deliberately incompetent campaign that would be match fixing... |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 25, 2024 16:30:43 GMT
How could a Labour candidate have advanced knowledge of the election if only a handful of close Sunak advisors knew until literally a couple of hours prior to the announcement? At which point, ofc, the speculation was rampant and we all knew it was coming. Labour were watching for betting patterns on the date of the election. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 25, 2024 16:30:45 GMT
Comments suggest that he's placed a bet on winning his own seat. It seems it’s actually on him losing that seat! |
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Post by aidypiez on Jun 25, 2024 16:31:19 GMT
Comments suggest that he's placed a bet on winning his own seat. It seems it’s actually on him losing that seat! Ah! Makes more sense then. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2024 16:31:37 GMT
According to Sky he bet upon the outcome in his constituency. Is that illegal? Pretty sure candidates have done that before and the, sometimes hefty, winnings have paid off their election expenses. I suppose you could have 'inside knowledge' with canvass returns and postal ballot totals but not always accurate. It's just silly. It's developing moral panic vibes. And I fear that it will get sillier. Pretty sure that Richard Wainwright, Liberal and staunch Methodist, bet upon his victory in 1983 Colne Valley. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 25, 2024 16:39:19 GMT
Comments suggest that he's placed a bet on winning his own seat. Is that illegal? I bet hundreds of candidates have done that over the years. Not as far as I know, but an investigation by the Gambling Commission is still taking place and after this election such bets probably will be made explicitly illegal. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 25, 2024 16:43:39 GMT
Is that illegal? I bet hundreds of candidates have done that over the years. Not as far as I know, but an investigation by the Gambling Commission is still taking place and after this election such bets probably will be made explicitly illegal. I was going to post similarly. There's a lot of holier-than-thou about this all - if the bookies get stung by operating markets which can be played, then they will lose their money and I don't have much sympathy. The ethics of who can and can't bet on constituency outcomes, a future event, could get really silly. This needs codifying fast, if it's not to become a free for all. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2024 16:45:35 GMT
I suppose that you could 'engineer' your own defeat but in those circs the bookies will not be offering decent odds.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 25, 2024 16:48:14 GMT
Ok. Just why?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 25, 2024 16:52:34 GMT
Comments suggest that he's placed a bet on winning his own seat. Is that illegal? I bet hundreds of candidates have done that over the years. Yes but he didn’t bet on himself winning he bet on him loosing (I.e. a Tory hold) |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 25, 2024 17:02:57 GMT
I suppose that you could 'engineer' your own defeat but in those circs the bookies will not be offering decent odds. But odds on a Tory hold which is presumably what he bet on? I think he will/should be cleared on that but there is a tad grey area. Betting on yourself should is fine. Ditto betting on others and a Lab Majority/a Lab majority of 150+ etc |
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Post by arnieg on Jun 25, 2024 17:10:34 GMT
Is it not a form of insurance. If Craig loses he gets financial compensation from the bet, if he wins the 'lost premium' (i.e. stake) is money well spent.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 25, 2024 17:25:42 GMT
Apparently he donated £100k to Labour (which is now being returned), so any potential winnings from the bet must be trivial to him!
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 25, 2024 17:37:27 GMT
I suppose that you could 'engineer' your own defeat but in those circs the bookies will not be offering decent odds. Will this now lead to hundreds of punters piling on the inevitable Tory win now?! (Ironic) |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 25, 2024 17:48:29 GMT
Not as far as I know, but an investigation by the Gambling Commission is still taking place and after this election such bets probably will be made explicitly illegal. I was going to post similarly. There's a lot of holier-than-thou about this all - if the bookies get stung by operating markets which can be played, then they will lose their money and I don't have much sympathy. The bookies don’t need any sympathy. They will simply refuse to pay out if there is suspicion. As I understand it, any betting contract cannot be enforced at law as it is an illegal contract. The bookmakers protect themselves by delegating such issues to a quasi-independent body. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 25, 2024 17:52:29 GMT
Has to be safe Tory hold, now? Could have a decent Reform presence and the Greens/Lib Dems will probably do alright, but Tory hold feels most likely now. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 25, 2024 18:01:25 GMT
Apparently the Gambling Commission reported him directly to Labour.
But presumably someone knew and grassed. Unless the bookies are running some sort of PEP check!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 25, 2024 18:03:32 GMT
I presume it's fairly easy for the bookies to identify all large value political and constituency bets, and then check if the person placing the bet has any significance.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 25, 2024 18:04:31 GMT
How could a Labour candidate have advanced knowledge of the election if only a handful of close Sunak advisors knew until literally a couple of hours prior to the announcement? At which point, ofc, the speculation was rampant and we all knew it was coming. According to Sky he bet upon the outcome in his constituency. Is that illegal? Pretty sure candidates have done that before and the, sometimes hefty, winnings have paid off their election expenses. I suppose you could have 'inside knowledge' with canvass returns and postal ballot totals but not always accurate. Of course there's nothing wrong with having a bet on the result. However it deflects attention from the Conservatives (and plod) who bet on the election date, which opposition parties have been making hay with. Although as I said when this first arose I see no reason why people shouldn't take money off the bookies because they have better information. It isn't illegal, as no doubt the "Gambling Commission" (whatever that is) will conclude. Now if it was a betting exchange critics would have a point. |
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