Opinion poll records

[The Bishop]

Its been said again and again when people make this "comparison", but most pollsters have changed their methodology significantly since the mid 1990s.

[manchesterman]

January update of poll averages...:

Labour 44.7% (+1.6% from December figures)
Conservative 24.7% (+0.2%)
Lib Dems 9.8% (-1.4%)
SNP 3% (-0.1%)
Reform 9.5% (+0.5%)
Greens 5.8% (-0.1%)

Labour recovered their previous month losses (probably all related to MoE anyway) and restored a lead of exactly 20% over the course of the month. LDs dropped off a bit in January but not reading much into that either. Quantity of votes is far less important than voter distribution for them, as 2019 demonstrated! Reform continue to tack on gradual support but VI in response to a survey is different from actually casting a ballot, so it will be intersting to see how they fare in the 3 By=Elections coming up later this month.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 459, Con 120, LD 31, SNP 19, PC 2, Green 1

[batman]

It's worth noting that, when you started carrying out your highly useful task of producing monthly poll averages in June last year, the average Labour lead was 16%. Far from the Conservatives narrowing the gap, it has actually grown quite a lot further. The conventional wisdom is that governments narrow the gap as the election approaches, and that could yet happen, but absolutely no sign of it yet. Labour's share of the vote has not changed much in this period, but the Conservative vote has sharply reduced still further.

[michaelarden]

Feb 20, 2024 14:30:18 GMT batman said:

It's worth noting that, when you started carrying out your highly useful task of producing monthly poll averages in June last year, the average Labour lead was 16%. Far from the Conservatives narrowing the gap, it has actually grown quite a lot further. The conventional wisdom is that governments narrow the gap as the election approaches, and that could yet happen, but absolutely no sign of it yet. Labour's share of the vote has not changed much in this period, but the Conservative vote has sharply reduced still further.

The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels.

[batman]

Do we have a February update? If not I could work one out

[batman]

There were 37 polls sampled either partly or entirely in February. They average as follows : Lab 44 C 24 RefUK 10 LD 10 Green 6 SNP 3. Not all polls had an SNP headline figure but the vast majority put the party on 3% Britain-wide so I've gone with that figure.

[batman]

As manchesterman has not been around of late, I've provisionally calculated an average of all polls sampled in March. I've excluded the Wisdom Index which a ) doesn't have a figure for Reform UK and b ) isn't really a poll as such. I can update if further polls sampled in March come to light in the next few days. I have included the SNP but not all polls had a figure for them, I have averaged out the ones that had. One poll had no figure for the Greens either.

Lab 43.7
C 23.8
RefUK 11.8
LD 10.0
Green 5.6
SNP 2.7

Very little change from February, except that Reform UK are up mostly at the expense of Others.

[manchesterman]

Sorry about my extended absence. I was about to do this tonight, but you saved me the bother

[batman]

Please resume your normal role next month if that’s OK☺️

[batman]

I've fed in the figures from BMG's March poll which were missing, but the only change is Labour down 0.1% after rounding to 43.6%. No SNP figure was given.

[swingometer]

May 22, 2013 16:34:43 GMT Deleted said:

The question time audience is incredibly left-centred. Being held mainly in large cities probably is one of the reasons. Attracting the disgruntled is probably another

Nothings changed, the few right wing members of the audience get their responses heard like they’ve murdered a child, hence why no one speaks up much. Even in Middlesbrough, the last before Easter, I noticed audience members hesistating to speak up on controversial matters.

[swingometer]

Feb 20, 2024 14:40:05 GMT michaelarden said:

Feb 20, 2024 14:30:18 GMT batman said:

It's worth noting that, when you started carrying out your highly useful task of producing monthly poll averages in June last year, the average Labour lead was 16%. Far from the Conservatives narrowing the gap, it has actually grown quite a lot further. The conventional wisdom is that governments narrow the gap as the election approaches, and that could yet happen, but absolutely no sign of it yet. Labour's share of the vote has not changed much in this period, but the Conservative vote has sharply reduced still further.

The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels.

When were they off it?

[nyx]

Apr 9, 2024 13:39:53 GMT swingometer said:

Feb 20, 2024 14:40:05 GMT michaelarden said:

The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels.

When were they off it?

Mid 2023 was their post Truss peak, they hit 30% in a lot of polls then.

[finsobruce]

Apr 9, 2024 13:39:53 GMT swingometer said:

Feb 20, 2024 14:40:05 GMT michaelarden said:

The Tories are almost back to Liz Truss levels.

When were they off it?

For about five seconds after she resigned. The nation was so grateful.

[manchesterman]

Apr 3, 2024 16:47:27 GMT batman said:

As manchesterman has not been around of late, I've provisionally calculated an average of all polls sampled in March. I've excluded the Wisdom Index which a ) doesn't have a figure for Reform UK and b ) isn't really a poll as such. I can update if further polls sampled in March come to light in the next few days. I have included the SNP but not all polls had a figure for them, I have averaged out the ones that had. One poll had no figure for the Greens either.

Lab 43.7
C 23.8
RefUK 11.8
LD 10.0
Green 5.6
SNP 2.7

Very little change from February, except that Reform UK are up mostly at the expense of Others.

Thanks to batman for filling in last month.

Updated poll averages for April [GB only]:


Labour 43.7% (0.0% from March figures)
Conservative 23.1% (-0.7%)
Lib Dems 9.5% (-0.5%)
SNP 2.9% (+0.2%)
Reform 12.3% (+0.5%)
Greens 5.9% (+0.3%)



April was another month where Reform showed the most improvement in average vote share.  Of little consequence under FPTP of course. Labour slightly extended their lead over the Tories to more than 20%, but, overall, there was little of significance to note in April's polls.  [The same can't be same for the various May polls and elections since then of course, but that's for a later date!]


** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 472, Con 86, LD 48, SNP 20, PC 4, Green 2

[batman]

Manchesterman can you do a May average for us?

[hullenedge]

Thanks to this chap all the MRPs compared:-

[manchesterman]

I can't update until tomorrow, due to various medical procedures which need to be undertaken for the rest of the day.

Will do it tomorrow or if someone else wants to do it, help yourself

[redtony]

a poll covering just the seats the Tories won in 2019 would be interesting

[manchesterman]

Updated poll averages for May [GB only]:


Labour 44.5 (+0.8% from March figures)
Conservative 23.3% (+0.2%)
Lib Dems 9.5% (n/c%)
SNP 2.7% (-0.2%)
Reform 11.7% (-0.6%)
Greens 6% (+0.1%)



Oddly the largest drop in VI in May was for Reform, but I guess this was prior to the Farage announcement and so I would expect this to be, at the very least, recovered in the June average polls. Labour continue to have a handsome lead and it seems unlikely that anything will change, beyond a couple of percentage points here and there, between now and polling day!


** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 494, Con 67, LD 46, SNP 19, PC 4, Green 2