Opinion poll records

[johnloony]

I don't know what to make of this poll; I don't know who/what Smith Data is/are.

It claims to be Con 30% Lab 30% UKIP 23% LD 10%.

[johnloony]

OMG I don't know where that big yellow face came from, but anyway

[Deleted]

Using Mark Pack's spreadsheets as a guide, I estimate that 5,683 voting intention polls have been conducted for the UK since 1943.

Of these, 2,051 of them (36.1%) were conducted during the 2010-5 Parliament alone, courtesy of the Sun and YouGov. And a fat lot of good they were!

[Deleted]

Voting intention averages by month for 2015:

Month	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn
January	32	33.2	7.4	15.2	6.7
February	32.3	33.5	7.6	14.5	6.5
March	33.5	33.5	7.6	14.1	5.7
April	33.6	33.7	8.3	13.6	5.0
May	34.4	32.8	8.8	12.9	4.8
June	38.3	29.3	8.7	10.7	5.7
July	38.3	31	7.7	10.7	5.7
August	40	30.3	7.3	11.8	4.3
September	38.4	31.6	7.4	13.1	3.3
October	38	31.8	7.2	12.7	3.5
November	38.8	30.3	6.9	13.5	3.3
December	38.9	30.9	6.7	13.6	4.0
2015 average	33.9	33.1	7.8	13.8	5.4

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2016 19:59:07 GMT swanarcadian said:

Voting intention averages by month for 2015:

Month	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn
January	32	33.2	7.4	15.2	6.7
February	32.3	33.5	7.6	14.5	6.5
March	33.5	33.5	7.6	14.1	5.7
April	33.6	33.7	8.3	13.6	5.0
May	34.4	32.8	8.8	12.9	4.8
June	38.3	29.3	8.7	10.7	5.7
July	38.3	31	7.7	10.7	5.7
August	40	30.3	7.3	11.8	4.3
September	38.4	31.6	7.4	13.1	3.3
October	38	31.8	7.2	12.7	3.5
November	38.8	30.3	6.9	13.5	3.3
December	38.8	31.2	6.8	13	4.2
2015 average	33.9	33.1	7.8	13.8	5.4

Lib dem bounce back going well I see ....

[Deleted]

The Liberal (Democrat) revivals of the past in opinion polls (in 1958, 1962, 1972/3, various points between 1981 and 1987, 1990/1, 1993 and 2003) were all largely brought about by by-election opportunities and the momentum from gaining seats, and I think that is exactly what they need again for any future revival. Their problem is that the potential scope for such opportunities is much smaller than it used to be what with the increased competition for the protest vote.

[greenhert]

Jan 2, 2016 22:52:19 GMT swanarcadian said:

The Liberal (Democrat) revivals of the past in opinion polls (in 1958, 1962, 1972/3, various points between 1981 and 1987, 1990/1, 1993 and 2003) were all largely brought about by by-election opportunities and the momentum from gaining seats, and I think that is exactly what they need again for any future revival. Their problem is that the potential scope for such opportunities is much smaller than it used to be what with the increased competition for the protest vote.

Also, fewer by-elections are occurring nowadays, partly because fewer MPs are dying whilst in office.

Number of by-elections since October 1974 (as each government since the October 1974 general election has lasted at least four years, making analysis meaningful):

October 1974 to May 1979: 30 (17 deaths)

May 1979 to June 1983: 20 (15 deaths)

June 1983 to June 1987: 31 (including the 15 Northern Irish by-elections staged by unionist MPs in opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement; 16 by-elections outside Northern Ireland which included 11 deaths)

June 1987 to April 1992: 24 (20 deaths)

April 1992 to May 1997: 18 (16 deaths)

May 1997 to June 2001: 17 (10 deaths)

June 2001 to May 2005: 6 (4 deaths)

May 2005 to May 2010: 14 (8 deaths)

May 2010 to May 2015: 21 (6 deaths)

[AdminSTB]

Voting intention averages by month for 2016:

Month	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn
January	38.9	31.1	6.4	13.7	3.6
February	38.7	30.3	7.0	14.3	3.4
March	36.0	33.2	7.5	13.2	3.7
April	34.7	32.2	6.4	15.9	3.7
May	35.6	31.9	7.0	15.3	4.1
June	34.2	31.0	7.2	16.6	4.2
July	38.4	30.1	8.4	13.0	3.9
August	40.1	29.4	8.1	12.2	4.0
September	39.6	29.4	7.5	12.8	3.9
October	42.7	27.3	8.4	10.7	4.3
November	41.3	28.9	8.3	11.4	3.7
December	40.0	27.2	10.4	12.4	3.5
2016 average	38.2	30.2	7.7	13.5	3.8

[hullenedge]

[The Bishop]

This thread could do with an update or two....

[manchesterman]

In the run up to the last GE I posted a record of average monthly polls. I could start that up again..

so here is the average polling results for May 2023:

Labour 44.5%
Conservative 28.1%
Lib Dems 11.0%
SNP 3.3%
Reform 5.3%
Greens 5.1%

** Quick churn of the figures thru Elec Calculus gives us; Lab 423, Con 147, SNP 36, LD 20, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1 [Devon E but you'd think this would probably be a HOLD in a real election)

For avoidance of doubt, this is NOT a prediction and I dont expect the result will be anywhere close to this when the election comes.

[batman]

that's really useful actually, the polling average means much more than any individual poll does.

[manchesterman]

Average polling results for June 2023:

Labour 44.9% (+0.4% from May figures)
Conservative 27.2% (-0.9%)
Lib Dems 10.9% (-0.1%)
SNP 3.3% (n/c)
Reform 5.7% (+0.4%)
Greens 5.5% (+0.4%)

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 448, Con 125, SNP 33, LD 20, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1

[andrewp]

Jul 2, 2023 11:16:01 GMT manchesterman said:

Average polling results for June 2023:

Labour 44.9% (+0.4% from May figures)
Conservative 27.2% (-0.9%)
Lib Dems 10.9% (-0.1%)
SNP 3.3% (n/c)
Reform 5.7% (+0.4%)
Greens 5.5% (+0.4%)

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 448, Con 125, SNP 33, LD 20, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1

I thought the widening of the gap would be more than that, but then I think the widening of the polls happened only in the 2nd two weeks of the month.

[manchesterman]

I think you're probably right but that's part of the benefit of monthly average polling, it takes out little blips. Be interesting to see if that trend continues into July though.

[manchesterman]

Average polling results for July 2023:

Labour 45.8% (+0.9% from June figures)
Conservative 26.5% (-0.7%)
Lib Dems 10.7% (-0.2%)
SNP 3.2% (-0.1%)
Reform 5.9% (+0.2%)
Greens 5% (-0.5%)

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 469, Con 104, SNP 29, LD 24, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1

[batman]

Looking at the last 5 polls, the average Labour lead there too is just under 19%. Only Opinium has a Labour lead lower than 18%

[nyx]

Updated the list at the start of this thread to take into account polls since then,

Highest ever Conservative rating: 56% (May 1968)
Highest ever Conservative lead: 28% (twice, in May 1968 and September 2008)
Lowest ever Conservative rating: 14% (October 2022)
Highest Conservative lead whilst in government: 27% (June 1982)
Lowest Conservative rating whilst in opposition: 21% (December 1997)
Highest ever Labour rating: 63% (November 1997)
Highest Labour rating whilst in opposition: 62% (January 1995)
Highest ever Labour lead: 43.5% (January 1995)
Lowest ever Labour rating: 18% (May 2009, July 2019)
Highest Labour lead whilst in government: 40% (November 1997)
Lowest Labour rating whilst in opposition: 18% (July 2019)
Highest ever Liberal Democrat rating (since 1988): 33% (April 2010)
Highest Liberal Democrat rating whilst in government: 25% (June 2010)
Lowest ever Liberal Democrat rating (since 1988): 3% (November 1989)
Highest ever Green Party rating: 13% (June 1989)
Highest ever UKIP rating: 25% (six times since October 2014)

[manchesterman]

Average polling results for August 2023:

Labour 45.3% (-0.5% from July figures)
Conservative 26.5% (n/c)
Lib Dems 10.7% (n/c)
SNP 3.2% (n/c)
Reform 5.8% (-0.1%)
Greens 5.6% (+0.6%)

Hardly any movement at all! A slight 'correction' for Greens from previous month's drop of 0.5%, and Labour's surge from last month flattening off a bit! No signs of ANY movement in the polls and, to be fair, I dont think any are to be expected really.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 434, Con 135, LD 30, SNP 28, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1

[nodealbrexiteer]

Sept 8, 2023 13:50:05 GMT manchesterman said:

Average polling results for August 2023:

Labour 45.3% (-0.5% from July figures)
Conservative 26.5% (n/c)
Lib Dems 10.7% (n/c)
SNP 3.2% (n/c)
Reform 5.8% (-0.1%)
Greens 5.6% (+0.6%)

Hardly any movement at all! A slight 'correction' for Greens from previous month's drop of 0.5%, and Labour's surge from last month flattening off a bit! No signs of ANY movement in the polls and, to be fair, I dont think any are to be expected really.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 434, Con 135, LD 30, SNP 28, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1

on side note 434 was the number of Lab seats the 1997 BBC exit poll projected but they chickened out on broadcasting the seat figures