Opinion poll records

[neilm]

Perhaps best not to include the daily YouGov ones?

[Devonian]

Oct 19, 2014 16:37:58 GMT swanarcadian said:

I believe the Lib Dems' lowest rating since the coalition was formed is 6%, which has been hit on a number of occasions over the past year. The last time they fell below this level was before the Eastbourne by-election of 1990.

Today that record was beaten. Opinium - Lib Dems 5%

[Devonian]

Apparently the last poll to have them this low was ICM on 9th June 1990.

[neilm]

When was the infamous 'asterisk' poll? I've never seen it.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There wasn't one - it is a combination of a figment of Lib Dems' imagination and a product of their desperate spin.

[neilm]

Hah, I wondered if that was the case.

[greenchristian]

Nov 20, 2014 14:31:36 GMT neilm said:

When was the infamous 'asterisk' poll? I've never seen it.

And I've never heard of it.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nov 20, 2014 16:52:54 GMT greenchristian said:

Nov 20, 2014 14:31:36 GMT neilm said:

When was the infamous 'asterisk' poll? I've never seen it.

And I've never heard of it.

Here's the first time it was mentioned, by that well known truth teller Chris Huhne: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-poll-rating-halves-to-12-per-cent-2041219.html

"I can remember a time when we had opinion polls where we were just an asterisk. We were literally within the margin of error of zero. So, frankly, it doesn't worry me."

And here's Anthony Wells with the truth: ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2767

[neilm]

Liberal Democrats have been known to claim that at one stage around 1989 one poll had support for them so low it appeared as an asterisk on a graph.

Thinking about this, I've never heard anyone other than a Lib Dem make the claim.

EDIT: beaten to it.

[Deleted]

If the Lib Dems did ever get a <0.5% rating, it would have been on some sub-sample or other. Certainly never on any national opinion poll. As Anthony Wells says, the lowest the Liberals ever registered was 1.5% in May 1955.

[Deleted]

Nov 20, 2014 14:31:36 GMT neilm said:

When was the infamous 'asterisk' poll? I've never seen it.

Last night, in Rochester and Strood.

It was a premonition, not a memory.

[carlton43]

Nov 21, 2014 12:26:42 GMT swanarcadian said:

Nov 20, 2014 14:31:36 GMT neilm said:

When was the infamous 'asterisk' poll? I've never seen it.

Last night, in Rochester and Strood.

It was a premonition, not a memory.

Perhaps they are to be the Log Woman in the new 'Twin Peaks'?

[Deleted]

Voting intention averages for 2014:

Month	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn
January	32.3	38.1	9.9	12.3	2.7
February	32.7	38.2	9.4	12.5	2.6
March	33.4	37.4	9.7	12.1	2.6
April	32.9	36.9	9.6	13.1	2.6
May	32.1	35.0	8.7	15.0	3.9
June	32.1	35.8	7.9	14.7	4.7
July	32.9	36.3	8.3	13.0	4.7
August	32.9	36.3	8.3	13.4	4.3
September	31.8	35.7	7.7	14.8	4.7
October	31.8	33.5	7.9	16.3	4.8
November	31.7	33.2	7.7	15.9	5.6
December	31.8	33.6	7.7	15.5	5.9
2014 average	32.3	35.7	8.5	14.2	4.1

[Deleted]

Updated:

Dec 11, 2013 22:01:52 GMT swanarcadian said:

Voting intention poll averages by party since 1943:

Year	Con	Lab	LD	SDP	Green	Referendum	UKIP
1943	34	46	11
1944	28	45	12
1945	32	46	13
1946	36	48	12
1947	44	42	11
1948	46	42	10
1949	45	41	12
1950	44	45	10
1951	50	41	8
1952	42	48	9
1953	45	46	8
1954	45	47	7
1955	48	46	6
1956	44	47	8
1957	40	49	10
1958	41	44	14
1959	48	45	7
1960	47	42	11
1961	42	42	15
1962	36	42	20
1963	36	49	14
1964	41	48	9
1965	42	47	10
1966	40	51	8
1967	44	43	11
1968	51	34	11
1969	51	36	11
1970	45	46	7
1971	40	50	8
1972	40	48	10
1973	37	42	19
1974	37	41	19
1975	42	42	12
1976	45	41	10
1977	48	40	9
1978	46	45	7
1979	46	41	16
1980	38	47	13
1981	31	37	29
1982	40	31	26
1983	45	31	22
1984	41	37	21
1985	34	36	28
1986	35	38	25
1987	43	33	22
1988	45	38	10	5
1989	39	43	7	4	6
1990	36	48	9	3	4
1991	40	41	14		2
1992	38	41	16
1993	29	45	21
1994	26	50	19
1995	26	55	15
1996	28	53	15			2
1997	29	52	11			2
1998	28	53	14
1999	28	52	14
2000	33	45	16
2001	30	48	15
2002	31	43	20
2003	33	37	23
2004	33	35	22
2005	32	38	21
2006	37	34	19
2007	37	35	17
2008	42	30	17
2009	41	27	18
2010	38	33	18
2011	36	41	10		4		7
2012	34	42	10		4		7
2013	31	39	10		3		12
2014	32	36	9		4		14

[carlton43]

How kind of you to tailor that to my exact lifetime. How interesting.

[Devonian]

Nov 18, 2014 18:02:04 GMT Devonian said:

Oct 19, 2014 16:37:58 GMT swanarcadian said:

I believe the Lib Dems' lowest rating since the coalition was formed is 6%, which has been hit on a number of occasions over the past year. The last time they fell below this level was before the Eastbourne by-election of 1990.

Today that record was beaten. Opinium - Lib Dems 5%

Another 5% score for the Lib Dems today from Opinium

[Devonian]

Today's 5% for the Lib Dems matches their 25 year low

[Deleted]

Jan 1, 2015 16:01:01 GMT swanarcadian said:

Voting intention averages for 2014:

Month	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn
January	32.3	38.1	9.9	12.3	2.7
February	32.7	38.2	9.4	12.5	2.6
March	33.4	37.4	9.7	12.1	2.6
April	32.9	36.9	9.6	13.1	2.6
May	32.1	35.0	8.7	15.0	3.9
June	32.1	35.8	7.9	14.7	4.7
July	32.9	36.3	8.3	13.0	4.7
August	32.9	36.3	8.3	13.4	4.3
September	31.8	35.7	7.7	14.8	4.7
October	31.8	33.5	7.9	16.3	4.8
November	31.7	33.2	7.7	15.9	5.6
December	31.8	33.6	7.7	15.5	5.9
2014 average	32.3	35.7	8.5	14.2	4.1

Here are the monthly averages so far for 2015:

Month	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Grn
January	32.0	33.2	7.0	15.2	6.7
February	32.3	33.5	7.6	14.5	6.5
March	33.5	33.5	7.6	14.1	5.7

[neilm]

Nov 21, 2014 12:33:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 21, 2014 12:26:42 GMT swanarcadian said:

Last night, in Rochester and Strood.

It was a premonition, not a memory.

Perhaps they are to be the Log Woman in the new 'Twin Peaks'?

Talking of Twin Peaks, it seems that David Lynch has walked away from it after an argument over money (Showtime wanted to spend less than he thought was needed). Apparently he has a whole series of scripts so hopefully it'll get made eventually.

[carlton43]

Apr 5, 2015 23:48:44 GMT neilm said:

Nov 21, 2014 12:33:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Perhaps they are to be the Log Woman in the new 'Twin Peaks'?

Talking of Twin Peaks, it seems that David Lynch has walked away from it after an argument over money (Showtime wanted to spend less than he thought was needed). Apparently he has a whole series of scripts so hopefully it'll get made eventually.

Let us hope so. It was such a wonderfully multi-layered set of references to so much else. Never mind the plot or the madness just ride out the dream in the presence of a man having fun with other peoples' money.