Opinion poll records

[Deleted]

Voting intention poll averages by party since 1943:

Year	Con	Lab	LD	SDP	Green	Referendum	UKIP
1943	34	46	11
1944	28	45	12
1945	32	46	13
1946	36	48	12
1947	44	42	11
1948	46	42	10
1949	45	41	12
1950	44	45	10
1951	50	41	8
1952	42	48	9
1953	45	46	8
1954	45	47	7
1955	48	46	6
1956	44	47	8
1957	40	49	10
1958	41	44	14
1959	48	45	7
1960	47	42	11
1961	42	42	15
1962	36	42	20
1963	36	49	14
1964	41	48	9
1965	42	47	10
1966	40	51	8
1967	44	43	11
1968	51	34	11
1969	51	36	11
1970	45	46	7
1971	40	50	8
1972	40	48	10
1973	37	42	19
1974	37	41	19
1975	42	42	12
1976	45	41	10
1977	48	40	9
1978	46	45	7
1979	46	41	16
1980	38	47	13
1981	31	37	29
1982	40	31	26
1983	45	31	22
1984	41	37	21
1985	34	36	28
1986	35	38	25
1987	43	33	22
1988	45	38	10	5
1989	39	43	7	4	6
1990	36	48	9	3	4
1991	40	41	14		2
1992	38	41	16
1993	29	45	21
1994	26	50	19
1995	26	55	15
1996	28	53	15			2
1997	29	52	11			2
1998	28	53	14
1999	28	52	14
2000	33	45	16
2001	30	48	15
2002	31	43	20
2003	33	37	23
2004	33	35	22
2005	32	38	21
2006	37	34	19
2007	37	35	17
2008	42	30	17
2009	41	27	18
2010	38	33	18
2011	36	41	10		4		7
2012	34	42	10		4		7
2013	31	39	10		3		12
2014	32	36	9		4		14

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm surprised to see such a modest Tory lead in 1976-77 given the kind of parliamentary by-election and local election results we were seeing then.

[Andrew_S]

Great work. It seems likely that the average Labour lead in 2013 will be back to 2011 levels.

[carlton43]

Great starting year. Thanks Swan.

[Deleted]

I do love polls... I should credit Mark Pack for his very useful website which made it possible for me create this table. If he isn't a member of this site he should join, even if he is a LibDem. It was still a fairly painstaking task to trawl through his spreadsheets and making notes of these yearly averages, especially when general elections intervened: there are separate spreadsheets for each Parliament.

www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

The Conservatives did get a lot of double-digit leads in 1976-7, but we didn't really take off until after the May 1976 local elections, prior to which we were still level-pegging with Labour. There was one relatively famous Gallup poll which gave us a 25-point lead in that November. The gap narrowed again after the autumn of 1977 and Labour were back in the lead again by the end of that year. This wasn't a vintage time for the Liberals, of course, which may have helped Labour avoid a total collapse. Callaghan was personally popular and it was before Mrs. Thatcher's potential had really been discovered - it was that unhappy time when she was constantly being mocked in the House of Commons by the Labour bigwigs in such a patronising way.

Some of these figures in my table are slightly distorted by the high concentration of polls around election time. I will hopefully be able to update it in about three weeks' time with the 2013 figures. I will also continue to report monthly averages, as I have been doing since May on the YouGov thread.

[erlend]

With hindsight the 1945 GE result is so obvipus.

[The Bishop]

Nobody here believed polls then, though (shades of the 1936 election in the US)

[Deleted]

Average voting intention poll ratings by Parliament:

Parliament	Con	Lab	LD
1935-1945	32	46	12
1945-1950	44	42	11
1950-1951	48	43	8
1951-1955	45	46	7
1955-1959	45	46	9
1959-1964	41	47	12
1964-1966	41	50	9
1966-1970	46	41	10
1970-1974	40	44	14
1974	35	43	19
1974-1979	46	41	9
1979-1983	40	36	22
1983-1987	38	35	24
1987-1992	40	42	12
1992-1997	29	50	16
1997-2001	30	50	15
2001-2005	32	39	21
2005-2010	38	31	19
2010-

[Deleted]

December 2013 voting intention poll averages (with changes from November, where applicable). There were 26 polls last month in which the fieldwork ended on a date last month (comprising 15 YouGov, 6 Populus, 1 Opinium, 2 ComRes, 1 ICM, 1 Ipsos-MORI).

All polls
Lab 39, Con 33 (+1), UKIP 11 (-1), LD 10

YouGov
Lab 39 (-1), Con 33 (+1), UKIP 12, LD 9

Populus
Lab 40 (+1), Con 33, LD 12 (+1), UKIP 8 (-1)

ComRes
Lab 37 (-1), Con 31, UKIP 14 (+3), LD 9 (-1)

Opinium
Lab 37 (+1), Con 30 (+1), UKIP 16 (-1), LD 8

Ipsos-MORI
Lab 37 (-1), Con 33 (+1), UKIP 10 (+2), LD 9 (+1)

ICM
Lab 37 (-1), Con 32 (+2), LD 12 (-1), UKIP 9 (-1)

[Deleted]

Duly updated for 2013 (I should credit Mark Pack for providing the data in a user-friendly format):

Dec 11, 2013 22:01:52 GMT swanarcadian said:

Voting intention poll averages by party since 1943:

Year	Con	Lab	LD	SDP	Green	Referendum	UKIP
1943	34	46	11
1944	28	45	12
1945	32	46	13
1946	36	48	12
1947	44	42	11
1948	46	42	10
1949	45	41	12
1950	44	45	10
1951	50	41	8
1952	42	48	9
1953	45	46	8
1954	45	47	7
1955	48	46	6
1956	44	47	8
1957	40	49	10
1958	41	44	14
1959	48	45	7
1960	47	42	11
1961	42	42	15
1962	36	42	20
1963	36	49	14
1964	41	48	9
1965	42	47	10
1966	40	51	8
1967	44	43	11
1968	51	34	11
1969	51	36	11
1970	45	46	7
1971	40	50	8
1972	40	48	10
1973	37	42	19
1974	37	41	19
1975	42	42	12
1976	45	41	10
1977	48	40	9
1978	46	45	7
1979	46	41	16
1980	38	47	13
1981	31	37	29
1982	40	31	26
1983	45	31	22
1984	41	37	21
1985	34	36	28
1986	35	38	25
1987	43	33	22
1988	45	38	10	5
1989	39	43	7	4	6
1990	36	48	9	3	4
1991	40	41	14		2
1992	38	41	16
1993	29	45	21
1994	26	50	19
1995	26	55	15
1996	28	53	15			2
1997	29	52	11			2
1998	28	53	14
1999	28	52	14
2000	33	45	16
2001	30	48	15
2002	31	43	20
2003	33	37	23
2004	33	35	22
2005	32	38	21
2006	37	34	19
2007	37	35	17
2008	42	30	17
2009	41	27	18
2010	38	33	18
2011	36	41	10		4		7
2012	34	42	10		4		7
2013	31	39	10		3		12
Year	Con	Lab	LD	SDP	Green	Referendum	UKIP

[Deleted]

As promised - only just got round to it:
January 2014 voting intention poll averages (with changes from December 2013, where applicable). There were 36 polls last month in which the fieldwork ended on a date last month (comprising 20 YouGov, 3 Opinium, 7 Populus, 2 ComRes, 2 Survation, 1 Ipsos-MORI and 1 ICM).

All polls
Lab 38 (-1), Con 32 (-1), UKIP 13 (+2), LD 10

YouGov
Lab 39, Con 33, UKIP 12, LD 9

Populus
Lab 39 (-1), Con 33, LD 12, UKIP 9 (+1)

ComRes
Lab 34 (-3), Con 31, UKIP 17 (+3), LD 9

Opinium
Lab 36 (-1), Con 29 (-1), UKIP 17 (+1), LD 8

Ipsos-MORI
Lab 39 (+2), Con 30 (-3), UKIP 11 (+1), LD 13 (+4)

ICM
Lab 35 (-2), Con 32, LD 14 (+2), UKIP 10 (+1)

Survation
Lab 35, Con 31, UKIP 17, LD 12

[Deleted]

February 2014 voting intention poll averages (with changes from January 2014, where applicable).  This include polls in which the fieldwork finished on a date last month. 

Polling organisation	Number of polls conducted	Con	Con change	Lab	Lab change	LD	LD change	UKIP	UKIP change
YouGov	19	33		39		9		12
Populus	7	33		38	-1	10	-2	13	+4
Opinium	2	29		36		9	+1	18	+1
ComRes	1	32	+1	37	+3	9		15	-2
ICM	1	34	+2	37	+3	10	-4	11	+1
Ipsos-MORI	1	31	+1	37	-1	12	-1	10	-1
All polls	31	33	+1	38		9	-1	12	-1

[Deleted]

Tonight lowest ratings for YG for the LD's - 6%

[Devonian]

Does seem to be part of a downward trend for the Lib Dems

[Deleted]

is 23% for TNS/BRMB the highest VI for UKIP ?

#BritainElects @britainelects
National Opinion Poll (TNS-BRMB):
LAB- 35% (-2)
CON - 29% (+5)
UKIP - 23% (+4)
LDEM - 6% (-4)
OTH - 7% (-3)

[Sibboleth]

If we're counting TNS 'polls' we might as well not bother with this.

[The Bishop]

Survation also had them at 23% last month, for whatever that is worth.

[Tony Otim]

Not much.

[Andrew_S]

Are TNS-BMRB a full member of the British Polling Council?

[Deleted]

UKIP's 25% rating from Survation earlier this month ought to get a mention on this thread as their highest ever.

I believe the Lib Dems' lowest rating since the coalition was formed is 6%, which has been hit on a number of occasions over the past year. The last time they fell below this level was before the Eastbourne by-election of 1990.

At the time of posting, I estimate that since voting intention opinion polls by party began 71 years ago, 5,423 such polls have been conducted. Of these, 1,760 have been conducted since the last general election alone.