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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 20, 2013 18:08:39 GMT
We need to have gategate to end the madness. I thought we had that with Andrew Mitchell |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 20, 2013 18:09:18 GMT
and it arrived, UKIP on 22% They'll be getting a higher national share than I got locally soon. That wouldn't do! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 20, 2013 18:11:38 GMT
I think UKIP's absolute ceiling in the polls, at least for now, is around 25%. That could move them ahead of the Tories in at least the odd poll, of course  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 18:16:29 GMT
and we will really see panic ... now remind me how you start a leadership race against a leader far more popular than his party ?
How lucky for Cameron, yet again no PMQ's ...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 18:23:24 GMT
I'm not sure whether Labour or UKIP are enjoying this the most.
Bish raises a good question, however. How much higher can UKIP go?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 18:45:17 GMT
As opposition we do not even have to interfere and let you guys get on with it. For UKIP it is a matter of whether the top is now because we have seen this before and the question is how much they will lose and whom to ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 19:30:36 GMT
Well labour are coming down with us at least! 35 is very low for them too. Definitely from both parties not just us.
11 point lead only a point or two larger than recent averages. UKIP will surely top the poll around the euros the way things are going. Faragemania?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 19:34:52 GMT
look what happened to cleggmania ??
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 20, 2013 19:36:47 GMT
Valiant spin there, joe - but it ignores the fact that Survation (like ICM and ComRes) have always tended to give Labour lower figures.
(our better pollsters tend - that word again - to be YouGov, TNS/BMRB, Angus Reid and MORI; the latter's latest poll can now safely be pronounced a one-off freak)
As far as next year's Euro-elections are concerned - much can happen in the intervening period, but the smart money would be on a Tory 3rd place right now. How would *that* impact on Cameron (always assuming, of course, that he is still there)??
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 19:37:07 GMT
look what happened to cleggmania ?? Well exactly. And I don't think anyone thinks this will actually come to pass at the GE. It will at the euros. Labour are currently polling 30%, Tories 20%, UKIP 29. I bet we will see numbers more like 23 15 42 and we will all be humiliated. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on May 20, 2013 19:38:32 GMT
Well, I disagree with that too. If anything, UKIP could slightly underperform next year compared to what many are currently expecting. Just a hunch.....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 19:42:00 GMT
nah I think we will get 30 in the Euros because of the local council elections at the same time which will be our core support voting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2013 19:42:04 GMT
Valiant spin there, joe - but it ignores the fact that Survation (like ICM and ComRes) have always tended to give Labour lower figures. (our better posters tend - that word again - to be YouGov, TNS/BMRB, Angus Reid and MORI; the latter's latest poll can now safely be pronounced a one-off freak) As far as next year's Euro-elections are concerned - much can happen in the intervening period, but the smart money would be on a Tory 3rd place right now. How would *that* impact on Cameron (always assuming, of course, that he is still there)?? 12, 9, 10, 8, 6 are the last 5 comres leads. Average is 9. I don't think my spin is all that unfair. You have had 38 38 38 37 43, so averaging 39 or so it does clearly show a fall in labour vote too. I would say its a poor labour poll and a terrible tory one. Its all but guaranteed that we will get 3rd. I think labour will also do so badly the narrative will be on the established politics failing rather than specfically the tories (and of course the liberals will do dreadfully) |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 20, 2013 20:13:41 GMT
How is 'badly' defined in the context of an election where we polled just 15% last time round?
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Post by stepney on May 20, 2013 20:41:07 GMT
Please. You ain't so thick, much as you might masquerade as an pseudo-intellectual with no common sense. If Labour make 16%, I don't need to tell you that's not a good result just because it's a gain on 2009.
Let's put it in terms even a DPhil student might grasp. If the Tories led Labour by X in the opinion polls closest to Euro-election day 2009, and Labour leads the Tories by Y in the opinion polls closest to Euro-election day 2014, and the actual Tory lead over the Tories in the 2009 Euro-election was Z, then Labour need to lead us by (-Z) + X + Y.
Above that, a good night/Sunday afternoon; below that, a bad night/Sunday afternoon.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on May 20, 2013 21:16:05 GMT
Oh, I don't think that I masquerade as anything.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2013 5:11:24 GMT
How is 'badly' defined in the context of an election where we polled just 15% last time round? anything under 20% would be very poor Anything under 25% would be disappointing Anything under 30% would be a slight disappointment Anything over 30% would be very good Got to remember Euro's will tell us little and no way UKIP would get the same % in a GE and more relevant will be the council elections which will obviously come first and a repeat of 2011 or 2012 would see us well on the way to number 10. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 21, 2013 7:40:09 GMT
You must be prepared for disappointment then. Labour will not get over 30%. I would say above 25% should not be disapponintng for Labour
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2013 8:05:32 GMT
hence 25-30 - a slight disappointment and more towards 30% being fine but remember these elections do coincide with elections in our heartland areas. Now we could and will see split voting but how much ?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 21, 2013 8:39:18 GMT
The kind of boost to turnout in those areas might be worth at most about 2% to you. Turnout will still be lower in the likes of Sunderland than in Suffolk
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