Opinion poll records

[andrewp]

Sept 8, 2023 13:50:05 GMT manchesterman said:

Average polling results for August 2023:

Labour 45.3% (-0.5% from July figures)
Conservative 26.5% (n/c)
Lib Dems 10.7% (n/c)
SNP 3.2% (n/c)
Reform 5.8% (-0.1%)
Greens 5.6% (+0.6%)

Hardly any movement at all! A slight 'correction' for Greens from previous month's drop of 0.5%, and Labour's surge from last month flattening off a bit! No signs of ANY movement in the polls and, to be fair, I dont think any are to be expected really.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 434, Con 135, LD 30, SNP 28, PC 4, Green 1, Other 1

Just for comparison, the average of the polls in the equivalent month in the parliament before the last 2 change elections

December 1995 : Lab 55 Con 26 LD 15
January 2009: Con 43 Lab 32 LD 15

[The Bishop]

Most polling in 1995 was so different to now that comparisons are of limited utility.

Starmer doing better than Cameron at the same point is maybe slightly interesting though.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Sept 9, 2023 8:55:10 GMT The Bishop said:

Most polling in 1995 was so different to now that comparisons are of limited utility.

Starmer doing better than Cameron at the same point is maybe slightly interesting though.

Maybe also reassuring for you?

[manchesterman]

Average polling results for September 2023:

Labour 44.6% (-0.7% from August figures)
Conservative 26.6% (+0.1)
Lib Dems 10.9% (+0.2)
SNP 3.2% (n/c)
Reform 6.2% (+0.4%)
Greens 5.9% (+0.3%)

Npt much to report from this month's polling averages again. Labour having its vote shaved off in slivers in the last couple of months, but any movement seems to be going to parties other than the Tories who are still flatlining. A Labour overall majority at the next GE most be up somewhere around the 95-96-97% probability mark now?

** Electoral Calculus [GB only]gives us: Lab 426, Con 141, LD 29, SNP 31, PC 4, Green 1

[manchesterman]

Average polling results for October 2023:

Labour 45% (+0.4% from September figures)
Conservative 26.6% (n/c)
Lib Dems 10.8% (-0.1)
SNP 2.8% (-0.4)
Reform 6.7% (+0.5%)
Greens 5.7% (-0.2%)

Labour reclaimed most of its minor losses from last month, mainly at the expense of the SNP whose vote has suffered lately. Reform's average share has increased 0.9% over the last 2 months and clearly some disaffected Tories are seeking 9at least temporary) solace there. Overall, a Labour majority seems almost inevitable whenever the election is called.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 436, Con 137, LD 30, SNP 24, PC 4, Green 1

[manchesterman]

Average polling results for November 2023:

Labour 44.7% (-0.3% from October figures)
Conservative 25.5% (-1.1%)
Lib Dems 11.0% (+0.2%)
SNP 3.1% (+0.3%)
Reform 7.5% (+0.8%)
Greens 6.0% (+0.3%)

A couple of tenths moves here and there for most parties, but the noticeable swing in the last month seems to be from Conservatives to Reform. if this swing gains momentum, this could lead to an even bigger disaster for the Tories at the forthcoming GE.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 446, Con 127, LD 30, SNP 24, PC 4, Green 1

[grumpyguy]

Dec 6, 2023 18:56:32 GMT manchesterman said:

Average polling results for November 2023:

Labour 44.7% (-0.3% from October figures)
Conservative 25.5% (-1.1%)
Lib Dems 11.0% (+0.2%)
SNP 3.1% (+0.3%)
Reform 7.5% (+0.8%)
Greens 6.0% (+0.3%)

A couple of tenths moves here and there for most parties, but the noticeable swing in the last month seems to be from Conservatives to Reform. if this swing gains momentum, this could lead to an even bigger disaster for the Tories at the forthcoming GE.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 446, Con 127, LD 30, SNP 24, PC 4, Green 1

from Conservatives to Reform? It's hard to tell, but some of the increase in Reform's share may be down to undecideds moving to them, rather than direct transfers from Con or Labour. If previously Lab. voters are moving to Reform, then where are the Aug. to Nov. increases in Lib and Green shares coming from (0.3% & 0.4% respectively)? Over the same period, Reform went up by 1.7%, Con only by 1%. Where are the new Reform voters coming from? 

[mattbewilson]

Sept 9, 2023 8:55:10 GMT The Bishop said:

Most polling in 1995 was so different to now that comparisons are of limited utility.

Starmer doing better than Cameron at the same point is maybe slightly interesting though.

Cameron didn't win a majority in 2010 tho

[andrewp]

Nearly all of the pollsters have shown a slight, but consistent, dip in the Labour lead in December

Comparing the last poll in November, to the most recent poll, Labour lead is

YouGov    23 to 22
Techne.     22 to 20
R & W.     20 to 18
Ipsos.        21 to 17
Suravtion 17 to 17
ComRes. 18 to 16
Omnisis. 16 to 14
More in Common 16 to 14
Opinium. 16 to 13
Deltapoll. 15 to 11

[The Bishop]

Deltapoll can fairly be called an outlier, and I don't think they have produced one in the past week.

[manchesterman]

December update a little late...:

Labour 43.1% (-1.6% from November figures)
Conservative 24.5% (-1%)
Lib Dems 11.2% (+0.2%)
SNP 3.1% (n/c)
Reform 9% (+1.5%)
Greens 5.9% (-0.1%)

Minor concerns for Labour that their average polling has dropped more than 1% in the last month, but tempered by the fact that the Tories have fallen almost as much, with the main beneficiaries being Reform UK, which certainly dosent hinder Labour's cause.

** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 441, Con 127, LD 34, SNP 26, PC 2, Green 2

I note that EC are now using the new boundaries for their polls, hence Green winning Bristol Central on these figures!

[uthacalthing]

When the election is real, both Labour and the Tories will firm up. Reform will not make half of 9%. Not least because they wil not be on half the ballot papers. Same for Greens.

[The Bishop]

Jan 7, 2024 2:21:50 GMT uthacalthing said:

When the election is real, both Labour and the Tories will firm up. Reform will not make half of 9%. Not least because they wil not be on half the ballot papers. Same for Greens.

They aren't doing a shabby deal with the Tories again, so if you are correct it won't be down to that at least.

Am pretty certain you are wrong about the Greens though, they will fight most seats and probably more than last time (given no "Remain Alliance" on this occasion)

[johnloony]

Jan 7, 2024 9:46:16 GMT The Bishop said:

Jan 7, 2024 2:21:50 GMT uthacalthing said:

When the election is real, both Labour and the Tories will firm up. Reform will not make half of 9%. Not least because they wil not be on half the ballot papers. Same for Greens.

They aren't doing a shabby deal with the Tories again, so if you are correct it won't be down to that at least.

Am pretty certain you are wrong about the Greens though, they will fight most seats and probably more than last time (given no "Remain Alliance" on this occasion)

I agree that the Reform Party will not have candidates in loads of constituencies. It’s because of disorganisation and Hubris. If I could have a hippopotamus for every time a party has said that it will have a candidate in every constituency (but has not then done so) then I would have lots of hippopotamuses.

In real life, I think that an opinion poll level of 9% for the Reform Party will translate into an actual vote of about 3% or 4% per candidate in the places where they stand, and there will be candidates in only about 1/2 or 2/3 of constituencies, so it will end up with c.2% of the votes in the general election and it will be dead in the water with nothing better than a few mediocre third places.

[lackeroftalent]

Green Party(s) candidate numbers in 2015, 2017, 2019 - 575, 467, 497. I expect the total number this time to be challenging the 2015 total if not more and expect the 3.9% share of all votes in 2015 to be comfortably exceeded.

In 2015 UKIP stood 624 candidates and received 12.6%. 378 candidates in 2017. In 2019 there were 275 Brexit Party candidates. Reform currently lists over 300 candidates here www.reformparty.uk/find-my-candidate A Reform figure close to the 2015 UKIP figure is perfectly plausible.

I expect the vast majority of voters will have the option of voting Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green or Reform with the obvious additions in Scotland and Wales.

[bigfatron]

A lot depends - somewhat absurdly - on Farage; he is arguably the most potent figure on the right of UK politics now that Johnson has slouched off in a sulk.
It does feel like some of the major party supporters on here are in danger of underestimating the minors, especially Reform/Brexit/UKIP, once again.

[nyx]

Jan 7, 2024 12:06:52 GMT bigfatron said:

A lot depends - somewhat absurdly - on Farage; he is arguably the most potent figure on the right of UK politics now that Johnson has slouched off in a sulk.
It does feel like some of the major party supporters on here are in danger of underestimating the minors, especially Reform/Brexit/UKIP, once again.

I don't think it's even just down to Farage.

Anecdotal experience from some middle-aged/older people I've interacted with in a pretty typical red wall town. Someone who's right wing and usually votes Conservative- is voting Reform this year. Someone else who was a life-long Labour voter until voting Tory in 2019- is voting Reform this year. The reason is that they both independently got into watching GB News online, and GB News consistently promotes Reform UK.

It is a party which is already polling around 10% despite little presence on the ground and little media presence. I don't think they should be underestimated; there is potential for a Trump-style surge.

[gibbon]

It will be interesting how OFCOM monitor GB news during the election campaign and whether if there are any breaches any action will be taken affecting their licence.

[Harry Hayfield]

Using Mark Pack's database of polling that goes back to the mid 1940's and comparing where we are now with the last change election where a Labour government was elected (1997), this is how things are nine months before polling day (June 1996 vs December 2023)

June 1996: Con 29% (-13% on 1992), Lab 52% (+17% on 1992), Lib Dem 14% (-4% on 1992), Others 5% (unchanged on 1992)
May 1997: Con 31% (+2% on June 1996), Lab 44% (-8% on June 1996), Lib Dem 17% (+3% on June 1996), Others 8% (+3% on June 1996)

December 2023: Con 26% (-19% on 2019), Lab 43% (+10% on 2019), Lib Dem 11% (-1% on 2019), Others 20% (+9% on 2019)

Assuming similar change between December 2023 and October 2024 as June 1996 to May 1997

October 2024: Con 28%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 14%, Others 23% (SNP 3%, Reform UK 10%, Greens 7%, Others 3%)

Electoral Calculus projects on that vote share: Lab 333, Con 229, Lib Dem 36, SNP 28, NI 18, Plaid 3, Green 2, Ind 1 (Lab majority of 16)

[Tony Otim]

Leaving aside the wisdom or otherwise of assuming similar changes, June to May is 11 months, not 9...