Leicester South

[stb12]

Leicester South

[John Chanin]

Link to profile

vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1445739/thread

[right]

[Johncrane]

Jun 1, 2024 17:48:31 GMT right said:

It seems that she's not the only potential candidate where liking tweets apparently contributed to being prevented from being a candidate  by the party 


www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63636469

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Young politicians need to learn not to tweet tweet tweet, those getting caught are idiots of their own making, no sympathy.

[birkinabe]

SOPN - www.leicester.gov.uk/media/vpdf1pxg/statement-of-persons-nominated-notice-of-poll-leicester-south.pdf - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, OMRLP, CPB, x2 Independent

Surprising that the Workers Party isn't standing here, as they would have likely done well - I wonder if there's some sort of arrangement with another candidate in place

[Johncrane]

www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-leicester-south-anti-labour-revolt-brewing 

An interesting article about the independent candidate Shockat Adam who seems to be fairly popular in this constituency   

[Deleted]

Ashworth reminds me of an embattled school teacher when he's on the radio - I would not lament his loss one bit. Why is it that milquetoast duds like him get to be MPs, but people like Faiza Shaheen can't be? I'm not saying I'd vote for Adam, but there's a lot of dross on both sides honestly.

[nyx]

Jun 13, 2024 12:34:46 GMT Johncrane said:

www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-leicester-south-anti-labour-revolt-brewing 

An interesting article about the independent candidate Shockat Adam who seems to be fairly popular in this constituency   

Probably a sign of the Muslim anti-Labour vote being split, the Greens are also likely to do reasonably well here. I'd expect Labour to win with a reduced majority.

[Deleted]

Jun 13, 2024 22:11:27 GMT nyx said:

Jun 13, 2024 12:34:46 GMT Johncrane said:

www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-leicester-south-anti-labour-revolt-brewing 

An interesting article about the independent candidate Shockat Adam who seems to be fairly popular in this constituency   

Probably a sign of the Muslim anti-Labour vote being split, the Greens are also likely to do reasonably well here. I'd expect Labour to win with a reduced majority.

This will be one of the Greens' best results because of the universities and the Muslims. They hold the seats in the city centre ward. Something like LAB 36% GRN 27% ADAM 17%, CON 15% RFM 3% LD 1% OTH 1% honestly wouldn't shock me. Leicester Labour got a bit shellacked in Leicester in 2023 (though less so here). Labour did lose this seat 20 years ago, so a big drop isn't unprecedented here. 

[mattbewilson]

I'm getting regular ads from Johnathan Ashworth, might be because on Facebook it still says I live in Leicester.

But I've had ads from Marie Tidball in Penistone and Stocksbridge too

[The Bishop]

Labour are extremely unlikely to drop *30 points* on 2019 in this seat FFS. Tbh @weld does seem to be presuming in these rather excitable speculations (not just here) that the Labour vote amongst both students and Muslims is going to be zero - which even on the most pessimistic readings is absolutely not going to be the case.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 12:12:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Labour are extremely unlikely to drop *30 points* on 2019 in this seat FFS. Tbh @weld does seem to be presuming in these rather excitable speculations (not just here) that the Labour vote amongst both students and Muslims is going to be zero - which even on the most pessimistic readings is absolutely not going to be the case.

How much did the Labour vote fall by in Rochdale, Bish? I don't see why the pale, male and stale MP here will hold up much better than the MPs in Bradford etc. 

[The Bishop]

1) There was no official Labour candidate in Rochdale and you know this;
2) it was a byelection anyway;
3) lots of sitting Labour MPs for Muslim/student heavy areas have made clear they don't agree with Starmer on Israel/Palestine.

Even you admit that Labour support held up better here in the local elections (which are of course not a GE) than in Leicester East in any case.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 12:25:47 GMT The Bishop said:

1) There was no official Labour candidate in Rochdale and you know this;
2) it was a byelection anyway;
3) lots of sitting Labour MPs for Muslim/student heavy areas have made clear they don't agree with Starmer on Israel/Palestine.

Even you admit that Labour support held up better here in the local elections (which are of course not a GE) than in Leicester East in any case.

All true, but Labour's lacklustre Leicester locals were before the Gaza war, which will make a tricky situation in the city at least an iota worse for a wounded party. 

[Ports]

In Castle ward which the Greens won, they were being headed by incumbent Cllr Patrick Kitterick - but Labour won every other ward. Sharmen Rahman who is the Green candidate got 18% in Stoneygate as an incumbent - respectable but very far from winning. Obviously this was before Israel/Palestine but in most other cases where it's thought there might be a challenge on this issue the supposed challenger has a far greater platform to do so than here. And then there are other wards like Eyres Monsell (90% white according to wikipedia) where this won't be much of a factor at all.

There seems be a distortion of the fact that students might more likely to vote on issues like Israel/Palestine than the average person - into some idea that giving the issue such importance is a characteristic of being a student. In fact I would look at young people who were still living in heavily Muslim communities as being more likely to vote based on Israel/Palestine rather than students.

[Deleted]

Regarding students, it's my understanding that De Montfort University has more locals than Leicester Uni. A bit like Nottingham Trent and Nottingham Uni.

[Ports]

Jun 14, 2024 12:41:43 GMT @weld said:

Regarding students, it's my understanding that De Montfort University has more locals than Leicester Uni. A bit like Nottingham Trent and Nottingham Uni.

This is generally the case - most of Solent's students are from Hampshire or adjacent counties from what I know, whereas the Uni of Soton has a much more geographically diverse student population. However that does not equate to anything like the number of students in a university seat during term time.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 12:12:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Labour are extremely unlikely to drop *30 points* on 2019 in this seat FFS. Tbh @weld does seem to be presuming in these rather excitable speculations (not just here) that the Labour vote amongst both students and Muslims is going to be zero - which even on the most pessimistic readings is absolutely not going to be the case.

Circling back to this, the election has a whiff of 2005 about it re: international issues and candidate selection dampening Labour support in some parts. Still, the odd flukey result will probably pale in comparison to huge swings in the country at large to Labour and the Lib Dems. Like in 2005, Labour will still win outright. This election to me is like Blair's first win in suburbs and rural areas and Blair's third win in the cities.

[carlton43]

Jun 14, 2024 12:44:26 GMT Ports said:

Jun 14, 2024 12:41:43 GMT @weld said:

Regarding students, it's my understanding that De Montfort University has more locals than Leicester Uni. A bit like Nottingham Trent and Nottingham Uni.

This is generally the case - most of Solent's students are from Hampshire or adjacent counties or what I know, whereas the Uni of Soton has a much more geographically diverse student population. However that does not equate to anything like the number of students in a university seat during term time.

Same here in Sheffield.  The far newer Hallam has associate schools and colleges that generate a local student stream and it is deliberately Sheffield and district friendly.