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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 3, 2024 11:20:16 GMT
It’s better that Leicester isn’t a one party state, IMHO. we're here because Leicester was a one party state |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2024 12:05:40 GMT
It’s better that Leicester isn’t a one party state, IMHO. we're here because Leicester was a one party state Sunak effect too, along with Brent West, and Harrow. I think the Tories could hold their own in all of these areas if Priti Patel wins the leadership but that’s speculation on my part. |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 4, 2024 8:24:39 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? Most likely yes but a net swing to the Conservatives would still have occurred. |
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Post by batman on Aug 4, 2024 8:33:07 GMT
I must say I did underestimate Webbe's vote, and was very surprised she did better than Keithy.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2024 8:38:41 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? Most likely yes but a net swing to the Conservatives would still have occurred. Why would her vote not have gone to Vaz or the Greens? |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 4, 2024 8:46:31 GMT
I must say I did underestimate Webbe's vote, and was very surprised she did better than Keithy. I agree, I saw her losing her deposit and the Great Vaz of Vaz doing better than he did. I wasn't surprised by the Tory victory because the seat has really just become a vast communalist shitshow and the blame for that must be mainly on Labour. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 4, 2024 9:33:49 GMT
Claudia Webbe's vote was a typical Gaza Indie vote. Kinda people who weren't voting Labour no matter what.
In our election we didn't have a Gaza independent so some of our canvassers did mention that when people said they were voting for a Gaza independent. However, the response was 'oh okay I'll vote green then'
Vaz is harder to place I'd guess his vote was a traditional Labour vote that switched to Tory in 2022. So who knows how they'd have voted in 2024
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Aug 7, 2024 21:54:28 GMT
It’s better that Leicester isn’t a one party state, IMHO. we're here because Leicester was a one party state Even worse, it was a one-man state due to the dreadful mayoral system and Soulsby stranghold over the local party. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Aug 7, 2024 23:30:22 GMT
I moved to Leicester in 1983 and it was a shambles then. I moved out in 1987 and little had changed other than the parachuting in of Keith Vaz. That can be blamed on the ham-fisted central and local party organisation.
The local Labour party membership didn’t appear to approve of newcomers particularly those from 20 miles to the west. “We don’t do things that way here” was a constant theme. By then I had some political experience as a former Parliamentary Candidate and a Coventry Councillor but did not feel welcome there.
I avoided the Leicester East Party but was active in Rushey Mead Branch. We got in fine with the local Asian membership. However the Leicester East constituency officers appeared to be a very weird bunch. So maybe they deserved Vaz and he probably deserved him!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2024 2:24:28 GMT
I don't know Leicester aside from my grandad working there from the 50s to the 80s for the council, but Soulsby feels like a machine politician like Chicago Mayor the late Richard Daley (died in 1976) or similar.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 8, 2024 7:34:12 GMT
I moved to Leicester in 1983 and it was a shambles then. I moved out in 1987 and little had changed other than the parachuting in of Keith Vaz. That can be blamed on the ham-fisted central and local party organisation. The local Labour party membership didn’t appear to approve of newcomers particularly those from 20 miles to the west. “We don’t do things that way here” was a constant theme. By then I had some political experience as a former Parliamentary Candidate and a Coventry Councillor but did not feel welcome there. I avoided the Leicester East Party but was active in Rushey Mead Branch. We got in fine with the local Asian membership. However the Leicester East constituency officers appeared to be a very weird bunch. So maybe they deserved Vaz and he probably deserved him! had a very similar experience when I lived there too |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2024 8:06:51 GMT
Vaz is just weird. 100% correct. My granddad stopped working for Leicester Council after Vaz won. Correlation and not causation? I'm not convinced.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 8, 2024 8:25:02 GMT
we're here because Leicester was a one party state Even worse, it was a one-man state due to the dreadful mayoral system and Soulsby stranghold over the local party. I think it's more complicated than that. Sure Soulsby is in an awkward place where he doesn't carry favour in much of the local party. He almost certainly is still in place because the party threw it's weight behind him. Had it decided he had to go I'm sure it wouldn't be too difficult to imagine how that would happen. But LE in particular has been gutted. The lack of an operation meant that there was limited effective campaigning. The shift in politics in Leicester which a lack of an active party was helpless to prevent and even more helpless to turnaround. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2024 8:29:53 GMT
The Leicester I know the better.
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Post by batman on Aug 8, 2024 9:04:28 GMT
the Leicester I hear about Keithy the better.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 8, 2024 9:41:37 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? without those two, surely Zuffar Haq (LD) would have been the best placed to pick up the vote from Muslims disaffected about Gaza? Similarly to Gordon Birtwistle (LD) in Burnley and the Greens in Huddersfield Think in the no-Webbe/Vaz scenario, Labour might have ended in third behind the Tories and Lib Dems |
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 8, 2024 9:57:28 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? without those two, surely Zuffar Haq (LD) would have been the best placed to pick up the vote from Muslims disaffected about Gaza? Similarly to Gordon Birtwistle (LD) in Burnley and the Greens in Huddersfield Think in the no-Webbe/Vaz scenario, Labour might have ended in third behind the Tories and Lib Dems It's a tricky one. The Greens seem to seriously underperform here. Was that the Haq factor or the two Indies? There's a case to say the Greens may have benefitted in a clearer field, but equally that Labour wouldn't have slumped so much with just the party candidates. Of course a single better Indy might have seen the same outcome as Leicester South. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 8, 2024 10:13:34 GMT
without those two, surely Zuffar Haq (LD) would have been the best placed to pick up the vote from Muslims disaffected about Gaza? Similarly to Gordon Birtwistle (LD) in Burnley and the Greens in Huddersfield Think in the no-Webbe/Vaz scenario, Labour might have ended in third behind the Tories and Lib Dems It's a tricky one. The Greens seem to seriously underperform here. Was that the Haq factor or the two Indies? There's a case to say the Greens may have benefitted in a clearer field, but equally that Labour wouldn't have slumped so much with just the party candidates. Of course a single better Indy might have seen the same outcome as Leicester South. That's a good point. The Greens only seriously campaigned in Leicester West and Leicester South, and didn't focus on Leicester East (apparently because they thought for a long time- since mid 2023 at least- that Keith Vaz was going to walk it in East). If Vaz hadn't run, then you're right, the Greens would probably have done better (10% or so). |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 8, 2024 10:43:28 GMT
The Leicester I know the better. seen them live |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2024 10:45:13 GMT
the Leicester I hear about Keithy the better. Come on. Starmer isn’t that bad. |
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