The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2024 12:43:46 GMT
Why did so many people think Vaz was going to "walk it" here given the actual result? I recall similar claims being made on this site too.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 8, 2024 12:44:43 GMT
Why did so many people think Vaz was going to "walk it" here given the actual result? I recall similar claims being made on this site too. people who clearly don't know the area |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2024 12:46:11 GMT
That would evidently include the local Greens then, if the claim upthread is correct.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 8, 2024 13:10:51 GMT
That would evidently include the local Greens then, if the claim upthread is correct. wouldn't be surprised tbf |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2024 5:52:59 GMT
Why did so many people think Vaz was going to "walk it" here given the actual result? I recall similar claims being made on this site too. There are a lot of idiots on here. I based my analysis of Leicester on my mothers childhood in Linford in the 60s and 70s, and what Grandad Parr told me about what the area was like when he worked for the council from 1950 to 1987. |
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Post by Johncrane on Aug 9, 2024 22:53:30 GMT
Why did so many people think Vaz was going to "walk it" here given the actual result? I recall similar claims being made on this site too. To be fair, It looks like even More in Common's MRP predicted the independent Vote getting 38% with Labour getting 37% which is pretty weird since MRPs can't really account for local factors like Independents and when you see their projection in leciester south with the indy only getting 6% and labour getting 67% www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-3-july/I think the prevailing reason why so many people thought Vaz would do well was because they were scared of election machine that he had built up over 30 years and they thought he was popular in Leicester east. As I understand he was mainly campaigning in areas with a high proportion of Hindus. As to why he failed, According to this article, people in UK-based Hindutva organisations like "Insight" said Hindus shouldn't support him because of his perceived support for Palestine and instead should support the tory candidate. scroll.in/article/1070161/how-hindutva-is-playing-a-silent-role-in-british-politicsIt seems that for some hindus he was too pro-muslim and for some muslims his overt support for Modi meant that they would have turned to claudia webbe who was not only outspoken in her criticism of israel but also also BJP and modi. So in the end his vote got squeezed in from both sides |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 10, 2024 11:19:34 GMT
Vaz's machine is long gone.
Vaz basically had two enforcers. John Thomas and Joshi. Both defected to the Tories. John Thomas in 2019 and Joshi after being deselected in 2023.
John Thomas has since passed away leading the the Hamilton and Humberstone by election where the first Tory in LE outside Thurncourt had been elected in decades.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 10, 2024 14:47:20 GMT
Yeah, I had correctly anticipated that Vaz's former base, regardless of how popular he was amongst them*, would be too preoccupied with other issues for him to attract a substantial personal vote and that he would be unable to successfully replicate the appeal of other candidates here by triangulating in response.
Despite all this, he still ended up doing significantly worse than I had expected. Hopefully this is all (finally) the beginning of the end for his political career.
*I'll also add that I was never particularly persuaded by the assertions of his widespread popularity in this seat that I saw to begin with.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 10, 2024 22:00:16 GMT
Why did so many people think Vaz was going to "walk it" here given the actual result? I recall similar claims being made on this site too. I thought that primarily because my friend who's high up in the Leicester Greens had heard that, so I trusted his word as he's usually pretty accurate when it comes to Leicester politics- albeit he was mainly only directly involved in the campaigns in South and West in this election what with the local Greens deprioritizing East. I'd say Vaz had a low floor and a high ceiling in terms of potential, but ultimately came towards the lower end of that range thanks to a variety of factors. |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 22, 2024 21:32:07 GMT
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 22, 2024 21:36:05 GMT
Actually, no. That's why you don't do this. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2024 7:52:07 GMT
It'll be interesting to see if the Tories or Labour consolidate here next time and locally in 2027. Some of the 2023 local election results were quite underwhelming for the Tories given the seat-wide results. Still, they hadn't won this seat since 1983 so there's perhaps a limit on how well they can do here. This was the most fascinating result of the entire election, after Lee Anderson holding Ashfield for Reform UK.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 23, 2024 8:07:58 GMT
I suggested Peterborough had mounted a challenge for this title but hadn't quite got it.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 23, 2024 8:27:36 GMT
I suggested Peterborough had mounted a challenge for this title but hadn't quite got it. Weren't you quite the Vaz fan back in the day? "Don't ever bet against Keith Vaz" was a Boothroydism after some NEC triumph or other. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Oct 23, 2024 8:39:32 GMT
I suggested Peterborough had mounted a challenge for this title but hadn't quite got it. Ashfield. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 23, 2024 8:40:02 GMT
That must have been one of the days I lost the Keith Vaz game. But recognising his organising ability isn't the same as being a fan.
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Post by batman on Oct 23, 2024 9:12:17 GMT
Peterborough is a good call. Having Helen Brinton/Clark, Stewart Jackson & Fiona Onasanya consecutively as MPs does take some beating.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2024 9:43:43 GMT
Peterborough is a good call. Having Helen Brinton/Clark, Stewart Jackson & Fiona Onasanya consecutively as MPs does take some beating. For Conservatives, Grantham & Stamford WAS one - Quentin Davies and Nick Boles. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2024 10:13:12 GMT
Peterborough is a good call. Having Helen Brinton/Clark, Stewart Jackson & Fiona Onasanya consecutively as MPs does take some beating. For Conservatives, Grantham & Stamford WAS one - Quentin Davies and Nick Boles. I don't think I've ever disliked any MP more than Quentin Davies. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 23, 2024 10:14:26 GMT
Geoff Hoon wasn't so bad until he got corrupt. Nor was Gloria de Piero that terrible, despite taking the tainted GB News shilling since. |
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