Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 6:24:53 GMT
I had no inkling that Ashworth was under serious threat, apart from being harassed in the street by the usual suspects. I feel sorry for him actually. He's one of the more likeable Labour front benchers Likeable? Sure. Good on the radio? Definitely. A good fit for Leicester South in the current political climate? No way, Jose! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 6:26:14 GMT
I mean thats Smethwick on fucking steroids I'd recommend Starmer doesn't force a by-election in East London to try and get him back into parliament.. Or Thangham. If we get a by-election in Diane Abbott's seat (I hope not due to death or illness obvs.) the Greens would throw the kitchen sink at it LOL. |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2024 21:14:53 GMT
I don't know whether he's changed his forenames by deed poll, but Keith Vaz's full name is not "Keith Anthony Vaz" as on the SOPN. His full name is Nigel Keith Anthony Standish Vaz. Indeed, he was known as Nigel Keith Vaz at university, dropping the Nigel after that.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 6, 2024 21:48:31 GMT
I had no inkling that Ashworth was under serious threat, apart from being harassed in the street by the usual suspects. I feel sorry for him actually. He's one of the more likeable Labour front benchers I kept recieving paid adds from John Ashworth which I thought was odd. Then a couple from the Tories in Leicester East towards the end of the campaign |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799 
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Post by john07 on Jul 6, 2024 22:17:15 GMT
I don't know whether he's changed his forenames by deed poll, but Keith Vaz's full name is not "Keith Anthony Vaz" as on the SOPN. His full name is Nigel Keith Anthony Standish Vaz. Indeed, he was known as Nigel Keith Vaz at university, dropping the Nigel after that. I have always had an irrational antipathy to anyone called Nigel. When I was at school, our next-door neighbours had a younger son called Nigel. I couldn’t stand him. Nigel is one of those disappearing forenames, for very good reasons. That was before UKIP launched the Farage Balloon. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Jul 8, 2024 22:49:31 GMT
A case of the left eating itself here ever there was one .... Meanwhile, the current Government party's Candidate loses 17% of the vote share, nearly 9,000 votes in total and gets returned with a majority of nearly 4,500 ... you couldn't make it up !
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Jul 8, 2024 23:24:01 GMT
A case of the left eating itself here ever there was one .... Meanwhile, the current Government party's Candidate loses 17% of the vote share, nearly 9,000 votes in total and gets returned with a majority of nearly 4,500 ... you couldn't make it up ! I despair about Leicester East. I lived there for four years in the 1980s but confined my activity to the Rushey Mead ward. This was deliberate because I took an instant dislike to most of the CLP officers and activists. However I wouldn’t blame them for Keith Vaz who appeared to have been parachuted in by the central party organisation. They wanted an Asian candidate and feared that putting in a Hindu, Sikh, or Moslem could cause problems. So they picked a Christian from Aden of subcontinental origin. He was taken around the branches and I mistrusted him right away. Anyway he seemed an improvement on the then current Tory MP, Peter Bruinvels. The latter was even more, vertically challenged, than Sunak. At meetings, people would heckle, calling him to stand up! Vaz should have been kicked out years before for his various misdemeanours. His successor Claudia Webbe lasted two years before losing the Labour whip. To have one ex-Labour MP for the constituency standing against the official candidates bad luck. To have two is rank carelessness. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 1:36:08 GMT
A case of the left eating itself here ever there was one .... Meanwhile, the current Government party's Candidate loses 17% of the vote share, nearly 9,000 votes in total and gets returned with a majority of nearly 4,500 ... you couldn't make it up ! Don't be so sure (if you are) that Labour will magically win this back. It's more likely, IMO that Labour lose Brent West to a brown-led Tory party than win this back. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 27, 2024 19:34:33 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Jul 27, 2024 19:48:52 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? I am unsure as votes could have come and gone in all directions. Having the two previous MPs standing as Independents is not a good look. It may be that the Sunak effect applied here. Leicester East has the highest proportion of Hindu voters in the country. Also the constituency with the second highest proportion - Harrow East - was also a very comfortable Conservative hold. It was something of a perfect storm for Labour here that is never likely to be repeated. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Jul 27, 2024 19:56:53 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? Which of the indy candidates was anti-vax?  |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Jul 27, 2024 20:02:23 GMT
Without Webbe and Vax, would Labour have won? Which of the indy candidates was anti-vax? The Vax candidate should have cleaned up. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 27, 2024 20:12:44 GMT
Given Labour lost 18 seats I think in Leicester East, almost all to the Tories, this was coming
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 27, 2024 20:31:29 GMT
The 12% Webbe got seems in the ballpark of what a Workers Party/Gaza Independent would have gotten, given she’s a flawed candidate and the constituency is 25% Muslim with a local Labour Party that has issues.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 1, 2024 14:43:51 GMT
How would one exactly go about estimating ward-level results here? I do have some intuitions about what might have happened, but would still be interested to hear how one would model the LD and One Leicester/Vaz vote shares in particular.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Aug 1, 2024 15:43:01 GMT
How would one exactly go about estimating ward-level results here? I do have some intuitions about what might have happened, but would still be interested to hear how one would model the LD and One Leicester/Vaz vote shares in particular. I suspect it is virtually impossible to map this precisely. In broad terms, the Conservatives will be ahead in the Hindu votes and Webbe possibly doing well with Moslem voters. Labour would have trailed in both groups. Then there are Lib Dem’s taking a decent share and Vaz collecting the residue of his former support. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 1, 2024 16:15:36 GMT
How would one exactly go about estimating ward-level results here? I do have some intuitions about what might have happened, but would still be interested to hear how one would model the LD and One Leicester/Vaz vote shares in particular. My instinct would be to map LD and Webbe with "Gaza independent" patterns, Tories with the Hindu vote, Vaz also probably mostly Hindu but spread out a bit more, Labour evenly spread. Belgrave, Rushey Mead: Conservative heavy landslide North Evington, Troon: Conservative win, Labour second Evington: Lib Dem win, by a fairly small margin Thurncourt, Humberstone and Hamilton: probably Labour win but not by much |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 1, 2024 16:42:51 GMT
How would one exactly go about estimating ward-level results here? I do have some intuitions about what might have happened, but would still be interested to hear how one would model the LD and One Leicester/Vaz vote shares in particular. My instinct would be to map LD and Webbe with "Gaza independent" patterns, Tories with the Hindu vote, Vaz also probably mostly Hindu but spread out a bit more, Labour evenly spread. Belgrave, Rushey Mead: Conservative heavy landslide North Evington, Troon: Conservative win, Labour second Evington: Lib Dem win, by a fairly small margin Thurncourt, Humberstone and Hamilton: probably Labour win but not by much the part of evington in LE os where i lived. Id say probably the bit of evington least likely to vote lib Dem |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 1, 2024 16:52:28 GMT
How would one exactly go about estimating ward-level results here? I do have some intuitions about what might have happened, but would still be interested to hear how one would model the LD and One Leicester/Vaz vote shares in particular. Just like anywhere else, from the box counts. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2024 19:47:07 GMT
It’s better that Leicester isn’t a one party state, IMHO.
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