batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358 
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 9:22:32 GMT
The unofficial non-aggression pact between Labour & the LDs has it seems broken down in some constituencies. For example the LDs are ramping themselves in Spelthorne where most people would agree that it's clear that Labour are the challengers in what is a small outside chance for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some Labour people are guilty of it too, but I haven't seen any clear examples. Here, if the aim is to defeat both the Tories & Vaz, it's pretty clear that Labour is far better placed to do that than anyone else.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,425
|
Post by iain on Jul 1, 2024 9:26:37 GMT
The unofficial non-aggression pact between Labour & the LDs has it seems broken down in some constituencies. For example the LDs are ramping themselves in Spelthorne where most people would agree that it's clear that Labour are the challengers in what is a small outside chance for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some Labour people are guilty of it too, but I haven't seen any clear examples. Here, if the aim is to defeat both the Tories & Vaz, it's pretty clear that Labour is far better placed to do that than anyone else. Local parties are always going to do this. There have been Lib Dem campaigns going on in many Labour seats, and many Labour campaigns going on in Lib Dem targets / seats. This would only be noteworthy if the national parties made a decision to start pouring in resources to the others’ targets |
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
|
Post by ricmk on Jul 1, 2024 9:32:43 GMT
The unofficial non-aggression pact between Labour & the LDs has it seems broken down in some constituencies. For example the LDs are ramping themselves in Spelthorne where most people would agree that it's clear that Labour are the challengers in what is a small outside chance for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some Labour people are guilty of it too, but I haven't seen any clear examples. Here, if the aim is to defeat both the Tories & Vaz, it's pretty clear that Labour is far better placed to do that than anyone else. Agree with iain comment. I think it's remarkable how disciplined both sides have been that non-aggression pacts haven't broken down. Of course local parties want to stand their ground (and keep their deposit) but I can only think of a few examples where there's been any serious external effort directed by both parties at the same seats. It's a world away from 2019. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 9:55:30 GMT
I have wondered where the Lib Dems go after the election after such a big non-aggression pact with Labour nationally as they will be part of their opposition (barring a very unlikely event where Labour don’t get a majority and the LDs are part of the government)
|
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Jul 1, 2024 13:20:17 GMT
Zuffar has form with this... in Leicester West in 2005, Leicester South in 2011 and Harborough in 2017/2019. What Zuffar does have going for him is a great local reputation and a strong base of support in Evington and Oadby (some of this outside of Leicester East oc). At the outset of the campaign, there was a slim chance that the Conservatives might snatch this on a low share of the vote and on the back of the big gains the party has made locally. As it is, Labour look likely to win over a very split opposition and with a surprisingly low share of the vote - unsure what impact Keith Vaz will have tbh. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 16:27:19 GMT
I have wondered where the Lib Dems go after the election after such a big non-aggression pact with Labour nationally as they will be part of their opposition (barring a very unlikely event where Labour don’t get a majority and the LDs are part of the government) I don’t think it would be wise for the Lib Dems to enter any coalition government without a guarantee of proportional representation. In any event there is next to zero probability of a hung parliament. |
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Jul 1, 2024 17:58:48 GMT
I have wondered where the Lib Dems go after the election after such a big non-aggression pact with Labour nationally as they will be part of their opposition (barring a very unlikely event where Labour don’t get a majority and the LDs are part of the government) I don’t think it would be wise for the Lib Dems to enter any coalition government without a guarantee of proportional representation. In any event there is next to zero probability of a hung parliament. The big difference with 2010 I suppose is that a LibDem parliamentary party after this election is likely to be built on a much more coherent electoral coalition. That could mean the Party will be better placed to weather any involvement with government as they will be less likely to blow up their base of support as they did by going into coalition in 2010. |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 1, 2024 18:14:14 GMT
In my experience Professors of Politics know the square root of zero on practical politics. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 18:19:29 GMT
In my experience Professors of Politics know the square root of zero on practical politics. And associate professors of government know even less. I didn’t know even we had associate professors in the UK. The US associate professor is lecturer level. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Jul 1, 2024 19:21:44 GMT
In my experience Professors of Politics know the square root of zero on practical politics. And associate professors of government know even less. I didn’t know even we had associate professors in the UK. The US associate professor is lecturer level. No an assistant professor is equivalent to a lecturer. An associate professor is the intermediate grade - classically a reader. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyhil on Jul 1, 2024 20:04:51 GMT
I spent several years in the 70s (while I was doing my PhD) at coffee breaks sitting in university senior common rooms listening to politics lecturers opining on the political situation of the day. The consensus after the second 1974 election was that the Conservatives would never form a government again.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 22:09:27 GMT
I spent several years in the 70s (while I was doing my PhD) at coffee breaks sitting in university senior common rooms listening to politics lecturers opining on the political situation of the day. The consensus after the second 1974 election was that the Conservatives would never form a government again. There was talk after the 1959 General Election that Labour were doomed as an electoral force. The arguments were centred around stuff like the ‘affluent society’ and the relative decline of the old working class. The success of Keynesian economics and the arrival of opinion polling were also cited. Thus the government could engineer pre-election booms by tax cuts and building houses before a General Election and having won it could reign things in for a couple of years in time for another pre-election boom to enable them to win again. Predictably, it turned out to be a load of rubbish. |
|
steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
|
Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 4:11:50 GMT
In my experience Professors of Politics know the square root of zero on practical politics. James Moore one of the politics professors at Leicester University is a Lib Dem cllr in Hinckley & Bosworth so he might disagree with you. 😀 |
|
steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
|
Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 4:18:32 GMT
Zuffar has form with this... in Leicester West in 2005, Leicester South in 2011 and Harborough in 2017/2019. What Zuffar does have going for him is a great local reputation and a strong base of support in Evington and Oadby (some of this outside of Leicester East oc). At the outset of the campaign, there was a slim chance that the Conservatives might snatch this on a low share of the vote and on the back of the big gains the party has made locally. As it is, Labour look likely to win over a very split opposition and with a surprisingly low share of the vote - unsure what impact Keith Vaz will have tbh. I agree with you. I fully expect Labour to win reasonably confortably now but Zuffar, who is a decent guy and well respected, may do better than expected among those who are put off by the some of the other candidates given their pasts. |
|
steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
|
Post by steve on Jul 2, 2024 4:29:45 GMT
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Jul 2, 2024 4:48:43 GMT
Labour holds, with Keithy expelled at last - that would be a win-win
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 4:59:32 GMT
The unofficial non-aggression pact between Labour & the LDs has it seems broken down in some constituencies. For example the LDs are ramping themselves in Spelthorne where most people would agree that it's clear that Labour are the challengers in what is a small outside chance for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some Labour people are guilty of it too, but I haven't seen any clear examples. Here, if the aim is to defeat both the Tories & Vaz, it's pretty clear that Labour is far better placed to do that than anyone else. Lib Dems did surge in Leicester around the time of the Iraq War (though mostly in South) so I could see how they may fancy their chances due to split opposition. |
|
|
|
Post by Rutlander on Jul 2, 2024 6:59:04 GMT
In my experience Professors of Politics know the square root of zero on practical politics. James Moore one of the politics professors at Leicester University is a Lib Dem cllr in Hinckley & Bosworth so he might disagree with you. 😀 Dr James Moore is the LD candidate in Rutland & Stamford (with an active campaign). |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 7:01:43 GMT
James Moore one of the politics professors at Leicester University is a Lib Dem cllr in Hinckley & Bosworth so he might disagree with you. 😀 Dr James Moore is the LD candidate in Rutland & Stamford (with an active campaign). There was a Mr Moore at my sixth form in Buckinghamshire! Small world! |
|
|
|
Post by froome on Jul 2, 2024 7:07:48 GMT
Dr James Moore is the LD candidate in Rutland & Stamford (with an active campaign). There was a Mr Moore at my sixth form in Buckinghamshire! Small world! Note really. It is an extremely common surname. Back on topic - Labour win. |
|
