Leicester East

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 14, 2024 17:44:43 GMT kevinf said:

We’ll, I’m going to put my (predictive) neck on the line here. I think Vaz will win. There is a strong chance this post will be deleted in the early hours of July 5th….

Quoted for posterity 😉

[batman]

I do think that this is one of the least easily predictable Labour-held seats. I incline slightly towards an official Labour win but I wouldn't be astonished if the Tories, Vaz or an Independent (though definitely not Webbe) managed to scrape through on a very modest vote share. The defection of the Tory leader back to Labour whence he came was interesting, it's hard to tell whether it's symptomatic of a drifting back to Labour amongst Hindus or whether it was just a one-off.

[nyx]

Jun 14, 2024 17:44:43 GMT kevinf said:

We’ll, I’m going to put my (predictive) neck on the line here. I think Vaz will win. There is a strong chance this post will be deleted in the early hours of July 5th….

I've thought that ever since someone I know who's quite involved with Leicester politics told me exactly that several months ago (they were aware of Vaz's run long before it was publicly announced). Demographically very much the sort of seat that Labour could struggle in. 

[arnieg]

Jun 14, 2024 20:25:28 GMT batman said:

The defection of the Tory leader back to Labour whence he came was interesting, it's hard to tell whether it's symptomatic of a drifting back to Labour amongst Hindus or whether it was just a one-off.

I think it is more symptomatic of him being an unprincipled pompous windbag.

[Deleted]

Is this the only seat of the 650 where Sunak adds more value than the legacy of Lizz Truss takes away from the Tories?

[batman]

Once again, I point out that Labour’s sharp decline amongst Hindus predates Sunak’s leadership and is not mostly because of it.

[Deleted]

Jun 15, 2024 5:38:12 GMT batman said:

Once again, I point out that Labour’s sharp decline amongst Hindus predates Sunak’s leadership and is not mostly because of it.

True. See Harrow 2022 local elections for this, and I think The Conservatives missed a trick by not nominating Hossain for London Mayor. Back to Leicester, I wonder, what would have happened if the local elections were this year instead of 2023 - Tory majority or NOC?

If the election was this year, would it have been better for the Tories overall or worse due to the Gaza war influencing some voting?

We could have seen these gains along with the ones in our timeline:

CON gain: Abbey; Humberstone & Hamilton x3; Thurncourt; Troon x2; Stoneygate. Western would determine if the Tories won outright.

The overall result might have been: CON 25 (+20); LAB 23 (-20); LD 3 (+1); GRN 3 (+3). Leicester 2023 reads like a 1968 London local election.

[batman]

The thing is, I'm not sure that the Tories are sustaining this surge amongst Hindus. We'll see on the night obviously. Hindus have a bit of a reputation as voters who like to be on the winning side. For example many of them backed Rhodes Boyson when he was their MP in Brent North & there was a major increase in their support for Barry Gardiner when he got in. I am seeing some signs of a bit of a drift back to Labour, but that may not apply in this particular seat, who knows.

[Deleted]

Jun 15, 2024 7:14:57 GMT batman said:

The thing is, I'm not sure that the Tories are sustaining this surge amongst Hindus. We'll see on the night obviously. Hindus have a bit of a reputation as voters who like to be on the winning side. For example many of them backed Rhodes Boyson when he was their MP in Brent North & there was a major increase in their support for Barry Gardiner when he got in. I am seeing some signs of a bit of a drift back to Labour, but that may not apply in this particular seat, who knows.

Based on canvassing returns or general feelings? I ask because, if anything, the Brent & Harrow GLA result seemed to suggest this group stuck with the Tories, even while many probably voted for Khan. I think that the Hindu vote (as far as as there is one) was an under-discussed factor in Uxbridge & South Ruislip too, IIRC. 

[batman]

It's based on canvassing returns, but I can't pretend it's in a particularly comprehensive area. Some Hindus who aim to send or do send their children to private schools will be harder to win back.

[mattbewilson]

Jun 15, 2024 7:38:26 GMT batman said:

It's based on canvassing returns, but I can't pretend it's in a particularly comprehensive area. Some Hindus who aim to send or do send their children to private schools will be harder to win back.

not just Hindus, I've found VAT on fee paying Islamic schools has come up too

[greenhert]

Jun 15, 2024 7:47:34 GMT mattbewilson said:

Jun 15, 2024 7:38:26 GMT batman said:

It's based on canvassing returns, but I can't pretend it's in a particularly comprehensive area. Some Hindus who aim to send or do send their children to private schools will be harder to win back.

not just Hindus, I've found VAT on fee paying Islamic schools has come up too

Only ~7% of school aged children in the UK attend fee-paying schools and in some cases their parents are not eligible to vote in UK general elections. In most constituencies this will have no significant effect.

Furthermore most parents wealthy enough to send their children to fee-paying schools never vote Labour anyway.

[mattbewilson]

Jun 15, 2024 11:43:33 GMT greenhert said:

Jun 15, 2024 7:47:34 GMT mattbewilson said:

not just Hindus, I've found VAT on fee paying Islamic schools has come up too

Only ~7% of school aged children in the UK attend fee-paying schools and in some cases their parents are not eligible to vote in UK general elections. In most constituencies this will have no significant effect.

Furthermore most parents wealthy enough to send their children to fee-paying schools never vote Labour anyway.

I'm not opposed to the policy just feeding back on canvassing and we've had labour voters mention it

[Davıd Boothroyd]

www.easterneye.biz/exclusive-judge-me-on-my-record/

[Deleted]

Jun 15, 2024 7:38:26 GMT batman said:

It's based on canvassing returns, but I can't pretend it's in a particularly comprehensive area. Some Hindus who aim to send or do send their children to private schools will be harder to win back.

My Hindu clients are the most stingy - I wonder if it's because they put a lot of money into getting into the catchment area for the Tiffin etc. I find they care about education more than I ever did. I guess it's a difference between incidental, random educational success and more intentional, planned out academic achievements. I don't know how high the private school uptake is in this seat though. If Labour lose this seat, I'm not sure it'll be because of VAT on private schools. 

[John Chanin]

This is one of the very poorest seats in the country (read the profile). Private schools are as relevant here as in Barnsley.

[YL]

Guardian article: Labour silence could lead to re-election of disgraced Keith Vaz, mayor says

[maxque]

Jun 25, 2024 21:34:08 GMT YL said:

Guardian article: Labour silence could lead to re-election of disgraced Keith Vaz, mayor says

Well, maybe the party wouldn't be silent if scores of councillors and members were not deselected/expelled to daring to disagree with the said mayor. Soulsby is part of the problem there, not the solution.

[john07]

Jun 21, 2024 15:30:49 GMT John Chanin said:

This is one of the very poorest seats in the country (read the profile). Private schools are as relevant here as in Barnsley.

Belgrave Road is not exactly impoverished. I assume that much of that is in Leicester East. There is a hell of a lot of money changing hands in the gold trade there.

I would agree that most Asian families (at least the Hindus and the Sikhs) appeared to use the state system of education, at least when I lived there.

[cogload]

Ramp ahoy! 🫤