bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 6, 2024 22:22:20 GMT
I keep thinking that Keith Vaz is an elderly has-been in bad health whose career ended a long time ago… and that therefore he is likely to get only a relatively small share of the votes. If he gets more than about 2 or 3 thousand, there would have to be local factors or bases of support that I just don’t know about. Roger Godsiff, unheard of outside Birmingham (and probably within it), comfortably held his deposit last time around with around 4,000 votes (8%). What we don’t know here is how active/popular Webbe is to split any anti-Labour votes or how many will vote according to ‘Webbe/Vaz once helped me with an issue at their surgery’ |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 6, 2024 22:31:34 GMT
Keith Vaz appears to be standing here as a candidate for One Leicester |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 7, 2024 2:37:43 GMT
That's done it. I'm buying my washing machines from someone else in future. I used my new washing machine successfully for the first time today. It was installed yesterday, two weeks (and two delays) after it should have arrived. It’s a Bosch from John Lewis. But I’m not sure what dialectical or theological entanglement of thought can make a connection between that and Keith Vaz. You probably remember, but to remind everyone including the anons viewing this without joining, his alias was Jim the washing machine salesman when he was snorting coke and doing rent boys. The fact that this disgraced pig is still relevant is thanks to the power of sectarian politics in this balkanised constituency. Thank you mass immigration. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2024 8:32:02 GMT
I used my new washing machine successfully for the first time today. It was installed yesterday, two weeks (and two delays) after it should have arrived. It’s a Bosch from John Lewis. But I’m not sure what dialectical or theological entanglement of thought can make a connection between that and Keith Vaz. You probably remember, but to remind everyone including the anons viewing this without joining, his alias was Jim the washing machine salesman when he was snorting coke and doing rent boys. The fact that this disgraced pig is still relevant is thanks to the power of sectarian politics in this balkanised constituency. Thank you mass immigration. Oh! I had forgotten about that bit |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 7, 2024 9:41:01 GMT
I used my new washing machine successfully for the first time today. It was installed yesterday, two weeks (and two delays) after it should have arrived. It’s a Bosch from John Lewis. But I’m not sure what dialectical or theological entanglement of thought can make a connection between that and Keith Vaz. You probably remember, but to remind everyone including the anons viewing this without joining, his alias was Jim the washing machine salesman when he was snorting coke and doing rent boys. The fact that this disgraced pig is still relevant is thanks to the power of sectarian politics in this balkanised constituency. Thank you mass immigration. Beware clear and obvious Libel old friend, especially with a litigious man in the midst of an election campaign. Probably best to delete this. If you do message me and I will delete as well. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 7, 2024 9:56:36 GMT
I keep thinking that Keith Vaz is an elderly has-been in bad health whose career ended a long time ago… and that therefore he is likely to get only a relatively small share of the votes. If he gets more than about 2 or 3 thousand, there would have to be local factors or bases of support that I just don’t know about. Roger Godsiff, unheard of outside Birmingham (and probably within it), comfortably held his deposit last time around with around 4,000 votes (8%). What we don’t know here is how active/popular Webbe is to split any anti-Labour votes or how many will vote according to ‘Webbe/Vaz once helped me with an issue at their surgery’ In its day, Vaz's political machine in Leicester East was very impressive - but it appears to have broken apart since he ceased to be an MP. Politics in the seat has also moved on, in some ways catching up with the changes you see in other areas with large Hindu and Sikh communities like in NW London. That said, you would expect that Vaz could still activate some of his old network - what is not clear is who that hurts most. I suspect he could still pull in 10-15%. It is also possible that the Vaz campaign swamps the Conservatives - I don't know how likely this is - but a lot of what would have been the old Vaz coalition switched at the last locals. My understanding is that Webbe's pull is very limited - but she may do well in the south of the seat where the Gujarati Muslim community is concentrated - although this is due more to external factors. The Conservatives won the popular vote at the locals while the party was hammered nationally and took nearly 40% of the vote in 2019, so they are - bizarrely given the history of the seat - in contention here. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 7, 2024 12:21:25 GMT
I keep thinking that Keith Vaz is an elderly has-been in bad health whose career ended a long time ago… and that therefore he is likely to get only a relatively small share of the votes. If he gets more than about 2 or 3 thousand, there would have to be local factors or bases of support that I just don’t know about. Roger Godsiff, unheard of outside Birmingham (and probably within it), comfortably held his deposit last time around with around 4,000 votes (8%). What we don’t know here is how active/popular Webbe is to split any anti-Labour votes or how many will vote according to ‘Webbe/Vaz once helped me with an issue at their surgery’ Godsiff got the support he did last time mainly through exploiting a (rather unlovely) local issue. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2024 12:22:51 GMT
So are we witnessing the end of ... Red Leicester?
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Post by batman on Jun 7, 2024 12:35:47 GMT
So are we witnessing the end of ... Red Leicester? not overall no. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 15:13:45 GMT
Is One Leicester a real outfit that has invited him to stand as he claims, or simply a vehicle to make him seem superior to the average indy?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 15:23:59 GMT
Is One Leicester a real outfit that has invited him to stand as he claims, or simply a vehicle to make him seem superior to the average indy? They were registered last year, had a candidate in the PCC election and also have a candidate in at least one of the other Leicester seats. So they are in some sense a real party, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were always primarily intended as a vehicle for Vaz. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 7, 2024 16:12:04 GMT
Is One Leicester a real outfit that has invited him to stand as he claims, or simply a vehicle to make him seem superior to the average indy? Registered in May last year
And here's a story from last August, featuring former Labour councillor and Deputy mayor, Rita Patel.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 16:29:34 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jun 7, 2024 16:30:57 GMT
Is 4 independents the highest in this election?
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 7, 2024 16:33:51 GMT
Is 4 independents the highest in this election? I don’t know but this must be the only one where two independents could potentially keep their deposit. I guess Galloway doesn’t count as an independent in Rochdale and assuming the excellent David Tully stands again. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Jun 7, 2024 16:36:32 GMT
Is 4 independents the highest in this election? I don’t know but this must be the only one where two independents could potentially keep their deposit. I guess Galloway doesn’t count as an independent in Rochdale and assuming the excellent David Tully stands again. Vaz doesn't count as an independent here |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 7, 2024 17:26:15 GMT
Is 4 independents the highest in this election? At least 3 in London with 4 also (if you count no description in one): Feltham & Heston Bethnal Green & Stepney Holborn & St Pancras |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 14, 2024 13:31:03 GMT
Is 4 independents the highest in this election? I don’t know but this must be the only one where two independents could potentially keep their deposit. I guess Galloway doesn’t count as an independent in Rochdale and assuming the excellent David Tully stands again. Nope - entirely probable that two Indos will save their deposits in Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley. Somewhat more unlikely that three will but not impossible. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 14, 2024 13:39:14 GMT
I keep thinking that Keith Vaz is an elderly has-been in bad health whose career ended a long time ago… and that therefore he is likely to get only a relatively small share of the votes. If he gets more than about 2 or 3 thousand, there would have to be local factors or bases of support that I just don’t know about. Roger Godsiff, unheard of outside Birmingham (and probably within it), comfortably held his deposit last time around with around 4,000 votes (8%). What we don’t know here is how active/popular Webbe is to split any anti-Labour votes or how many will vote according to ‘Webbe/Vaz once helped me with an issue at their surgery’ The Godsiff vote was actually slightly lower than expected and basically consisted of his casework vote, the Anderton Park protest vote (he was backed by the deeply unlovely Shakeel Afsar, who is standing this time) and a few scattered voters. |
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kevinf
Labour
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Post by kevinf on Jun 14, 2024 17:44:43 GMT
We’ll, I’m going to put my (predictive) neck on the line here. I think Vaz will win. There is a strong chance this post will be deleted in the early hours of July 5th….
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