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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Apr 5, 2024 4:01:40 GMT
the unnecessary removal of the UK from one of the largest democratic elections on the planet, I would love us to be allowed to vote in the US elections. What would be the point? Both main parties can barely differentiate themselves at the best of times. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 5, 2024 7:53:58 GMT
Anyway, what I think this thread needs is more opinion polls
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 5, 2024 8:26:00 GMT
It's not gone without notice that this thread isn't exactly bouncing. The bias towards domestic elections is rooted in the foundations of the forum, of course. It'll perhaps spring into life closer to polling days. It's not even bouncing in real life. You've got dreary lead candidates who are a mix of retreads, no marks and oddballs. You've got extremely tense domestic political scenarios in several major countries (Germany, France and Spain for starters). I'm in Germany at the moment. There's barely any mention of it. I've seen one CSU poster for the election on a board in a village, and that's it. The prospect of European elections is filling up precisely zero airtime here in Spain right now. 2024 is the of local elections for the awkward squad (Galicia back in February, upcoming in the Basque Country and Catalonia) which are far more interesting for your average Spaniard. I my Spanish class yesterday one of my teachers was expounding on how important it is to vote in the European elections and she was clearly shocked when her two teaching assistants (early 20-something Spanish girls) weren't even aware that there were European elections coming up. |
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Post by irish observer on Apr 5, 2024 11:15:57 GMT
Early days and Irish Euro elections do favour the tint of celebrity. Was there any known family involvement in FG beforehand or is this completely out of left field? From Ashbourne in Meath. Well known in the Horse-racing industry and close to Fairyhouse also. No surprise on my side of the FG declaration. |
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Post by irish observer on Apr 5, 2024 11:48:54 GMT
Ireland South Candidate (5 Seats)
All of Munster and South Leinster taking in Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow and Kilkenny. Main urban settlements are the 3 cities of Cork, Limerick and Waterford (Ireland's oldest), Kilkenny, Tralee, Wexford, Bray, Clonmel, Killarney, Enniscorthy and Ennis.
FF: Billy Kelleher (Sitting MEP) and Cynthia Ni Murchu former RTE Presenter
FG: Sean Kelly (Sitting MEP) from Kerry former GAA President and John Mullins from Cork, Businessman and relative of Willie Mullins, Horse-Racing Connections. Deirdre Clune Sitting MEP from Cork retiring.
GRN: Grace O'Sullivan (Sitting MEP) from Waterford former Irish Windsurfing Champion and Rainbow Warrior.
IND: Mick Wallace (Sitting MEP) from Wicklow. Former TD, ally of Clare Daly from Dublin anti-stance on War on Ukraine, former property developer and former Chairman of a women and men's soccer team in Wicklow. Graham de Barra (Don't know), Eddie Punch (Great name but Don't know)
LAB: Niamh Hourigan Sociologist from Limerick City. Father Michael was a former FG Cllr and sister Neasa is a GRN TD for Dublin Central.
SF: Senator Paul Gavan. Nominated by SIPTU, Had a Bill passed so that workers could keep their own tips and Kathleen Funchion TD from Carlow spokesperson on Disability & Children. Former partner of David Cullinane, Waterford TD.
PBP: Cian Prendeville, former Limerick City Cllr.
GRN-LEFT: Lorna Bogue, former GRN Cllr from Cork City - Resigned due to dissatisfaction with Government.
AONTU: Patrick Murphy from Cork.
Irish Freedom Party: Michael Leahy from Clare.
Ireland First: Derek Blighe, possibly related to the Captain.
Early prediction: Liadh Ni Riada lost a SF seat here in 2019. They are assured of a seat here on June 7. So is Kelleher and Kelly so that's 3 gone. O'Sullivan is gone. No way the Greens will hold this. Hourigan has a media profile but in effect Labour lost Jan O'Sullivan's seat also which went back to Jim Kemmy and Maurice Quinlivan is running for Mayor of Limerick for SF. Lot of also rans in the field. There is an Independent none of the above vote, however, and I could see Wallace hold on this basis plus aside from Funchion he is the only big beast in the Tipperary/Waterford to South Leinster region which he will particularly target. I see no way that FG can retain a second seat here especially with the retirement of Coveney as a Minister and even with Harris as Taoiseach. FF are retaining 1 seat. SF could potentially take a second seat as Green and Labour transfers and other left-wing transfers on latter counts would favour them.
My 2 cents at this point.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 7, 2024 11:25:36 GMT
Seat projections from Europe Elects  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 7, 2024 18:15:02 GMT
Seat projections from Europe Elects There are rumours in Germany that Meloni will be getting the ECR to prop up the PP. |
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pl
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Post by pl on Apr 7, 2024 18:23:16 GMT
Seat projections from Europe Elects There are rumours in Germany that Meloni will be getting the ECR to prop up the PP. My normal reaction world be "Let's see what the merry-go-round of EP groups brings us...." Does anyone have any feeling over where some of the fringe parties will end up? |
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Post by irish observer on Apr 8, 2024 0:57:27 GMT
Final Irish constituency and the one which will generate the most media focus: Dublin (4) All Constituencies of the Dublin region ie a utter mix of Dublin City Council Northside versus Southside, Dublin West which also has the fastest growing new-Irish constituency in the state, home to Dublin's former FG Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Dublin North now increasingly urban, the old traditional middle-class Dun Laoghaire and Dublin South constituencies and the new and expanding Dublin Mid-West and South-West along the M-50 Corridor.
FF: Barry Andrews (Sitting MEP) From Blackrock in DL, Son of David Andrews former Minister & TD and Grandson of Todd, a Nationbuilder. Lost seat in 2016 GE, himself a former Junior Minister. Became Head of a Charity, following footsteps of his Dad. Then won Euro seat in 2019. His uncle, Niall, was a long-time FF MEP for Dublin. His son, Chris, and Barry's cousin, has since quit FF having served as a Cllr and defected to SF for whom he is now a TD.
FG: Senator Regina Doherty. TD for Meath East until 2020. Then elected to the Seanad. Moved to North Dublin and won nomination in a surprise beating then Minister Josepha Madigan who has since quit frontline politics. Frances Fitzgerald is retiring.
IND: Claire Daly (Sitting MEP) From Swords in Dublin North. Daughter of an Irish Army Colonel. Former Trade Unionist at Aer Lingus and Socialist Party Deputy Leader to Joe Higgins. She has since been United Left and partners with Mick Wallace in Europe. Finian McGrath, Former Minister for Disability from Beaumont former TD for Dublin Bay-North.
GRN: Ciaran Cuffe (Sitting MEP) Won election to both Dublin City Council and the European Parliament in 2019 on same day. Chose Brussels naturally! Long-term Green. Former Minister of State in FF-GRN Coalition and previously a long-term GRN Cllr. Has an interesting FF connection, related to a Philip J. Little, who was a TD for Waterford and a Minister for c.30 years and elected in 1918. Also first editor of An Phoblacht and whose Dad, Philip F. Little was the first Premier of Newfoundland, before it joined the Confederation of Canada, an Irish emigrant.
SF: Senator Lynn Boylan from Tallaght. Seanad Disability Spokesperson. Lost her MEP Seat in 2019 and Partner of Eoin O'Broin SF Housing Spokesperson. And Cllr. Daithi Doolin. Leader of the SF Group of Dublin City Council, originally from Limerick City, running for re-election to Dublin City Council and Current Head of DCC Housing SPC. Apparently also a vegan!
LAB: Senator Aodhan O'Riordain from Clontarf. Former TD for Dublin Bay-North. Apparently not running in next GE but decided to run for Europe.
PBP: Brid Smith TD for Dublin South-Central. From Ballyfermot former Union Official and long-time activist. Contested Europe before. Former Cllr on Dublin CC. Apparently not running in GE but decided to run for Europe.
Social Democrats: Sinead Gibney. Don't know much about her.
Also Rans: Patrick Quinlan (National Party) Malachy Steenson (Independent) Diarmuid O'Conorain (Irish Freedom Party) Philip Dwyer (Ireland First) Robin Cafolla (Green Left)
I predict that Cuffe cannot hold his seat. Nice guy with a decent record but the tide is out for the Greens in Dublin. 20% is a quota for example. There is no way either that Lab/PBP/SD will be in the running either but who will outpoll the other. The SD/LAB battle will be interesting. Smith survived in Dublin SC due to SF transfers but they will run a 2nd candidate next year and her seat is gone as SF gobbles up all left-wingers and left-wing Independents out there. On her own I think Doherty is very weak in Dublin. Previous FG MEPS in Dublin have always had a constituency presence, she has none here. SF are assured of a seat and Boylan will return to Europe. I assume they will divide Dublin with him taking most of Dublin City Council area as he is Dublin Bay South and she taking the western and southern belt round the city up to parts of the northside and Dublin North. This is of course Daly's base but also the base of SF's Louise O'Reilly and FF's Darragh O'Brien and where FG's Doherty now lives. Expect a major battle in Dublin North. Tallies from here and Dublin West will be telling as to how all candidates are faring in Europe in Dublin but only a micro-set of all Dublin regardless.
FF's difficulty is the spread of the vote. Unfortunately some LEAs in Dublin still have no FF Cllr but this affects all parties but the corollary is that SF have TDs in many of these areas now eve if they lost Council seats and have no rep now.
I find this hard to call at the moment and there will be a lot of churn in the data as people fix their minds coming to June 7.
Nothing is safe in Dublin. But on an early call I give Boylan a seat. I think Daly will hold also boosted by name recognition but also by the Independent vote. Left-wing transfers will help her from Greens, Labour and PBP to a greater extent than SF and possibly deny SF a second seat. I think Andrews will hold boosted by incumbency and name recognition and that he will outpoll Doherty and McGrath. These type of transfers are more likely to favour him than other candidates. Then again could it be Andrews/Doolin/Doherty for the last 2 seats and squeaky bum time to decide who makes it home with popcorn for the electoral nerds like on this site?
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Post by uthacalthing on Apr 8, 2024 17:34:16 GMT
Its good to have you back
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 10, 2024 9:45:37 GMT
Czechia
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Post by irish observer on Apr 11, 2024 21:16:12 GMT
Update to Midlands-North West Constituency. Ciaran Mullooly former RTE Midlands Correspondent is now running for Independent Ireland having been signed up by Michael Fitzmaurice. For past few years he has been a Tourism Officer with Longford County Council. Well-established Fianna Fáil family links. A relative of his was a former Cathaoirleach of the Irish Seanad (Upper House), Brian Mullooly.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Apr 15, 2024 22:21:55 GMT
I'm starting to get party ads. Weirdly, I'm getting adverts for Swedish parties (Liberalerna) despite being here in Spain and usually getting general adverts in Spanish.
The only reason why I think this is the case is that I emailed the Swedish election authorities to ask about what I need to do to vote in Sweden (as I'll be there during the election) and Google has scraped that information.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 23, 2024 10:21:10 GMT
An AfD staffer in the European Parliament has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China.
Quite why China needs to bother when the German economic and political establishment are happy to help, who knows.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 23, 2024 10:32:58 GMT
An AfD staffer in the European Parliament has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China. Quite why China needs to bother when the German economic and political establishment are happy to help, who knows. It's probably a blind to cover their backs and to damage their major opposition. |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 23, 2024 10:58:46 GMT
Its the worst form of politics to believe that everyone who disagrees with you is an idiot. Any whatever side you are on, its not true. If you're on the opposing side to Harry on any given issue, it probably is true.. Anyone felt a little proud of themselves when voting or following the Euros, given that few people gave a shit, I’ll confess I did. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 30, 2024 7:52:02 GMT
The AfD campaign appears to be unraveling. A staffer for Maximilian Krah, the oddball Spitzenkandidat, has been accused of being a Chinese asset, and Petr Bystrom MEP has been accused of taking cash from the Russians. They aren't the only ones. The Belgian PM De Croo has said there are more names to come, and not just from that end of the political spectrum. On a totally unrelated note, an interesting report from a part of the world that you don't see much from. www.politico.eu/article/luxembourg-france-moselle-border-eu-election/ |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 30, 2024 11:51:08 GMT
The AfD campaign appears to be unraveling. A staffer for Maximilian Krah, the oddball Spitzenkandidat, has been accused of being a Chinese asset, and Petr Bystrom MEP has been accused of taking cash from the Russians. They aren't the only ones. The Belgian PM De Croo has said there are more names to come, and not just from that end of the political spectrum. On a totally unrelated note, an interesting report from a part of the world that you don't see much from. www.politico.eu/article/luxembourg-france-moselle-border-eu-election/Might have been more interesting if they'd spoken to some of the voters who are supporting the 'far right' to discover why they are, rather than just speaking to those from the opposing perspective |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 30, 2024 13:15:37 GMT
The AfD campaign appears to be unraveling. A staffer for Maximilian Krah, the oddball Spitzenkandidat, has been accused of being a Chinese asset, and Petr Bystrom MEP has been accused of taking cash from the Russians. They aren't the only ones. The Belgian PM De Croo has said there are more names to come, and not just from that end of the political spectrum. On a totally unrelated note, an interesting report from a part of the world that you don't see much from. www.politico.eu/article/luxembourg-france-moselle-border-eu-election/Might have been more interesting if they'd spoken to some of the voters who are supporting the 'far right' to discover why they are, rather than just speaking to those from the opposing perspective It would. But even acknowledging that things aren't as they want them to be is a start. There has been little coverage of Luxembourg's own move to a more hard-line approach to foreign criminals. Which is benefitting the mainstream centre-right CSV, who look on course to take a seat from the Greens. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 30, 2024 13:31:17 GMT
The AfD campaign appears to be unraveling. A staffer for Maximilian Krah, the oddball Spitzenkandidat, has been accused of being a Chinese asset, and Petr Bystrom MEP has been accused of taking cash from the Russians. They aren't the only ones. The Belgian PM De Croo has said there are more names to come, and not just from that end of the political spectrum. On a totally unrelated note, an interesting report from a part of the world that you don't see much from. www.politico.eu/article/luxembourg-france-moselle-border-eu-election/ how is De Croo related to this? |
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