johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Jun 10, 2024 16:56:14 GMT
100% counted in Poland. They have constituencies like the UK used to. Turnout 40.65%.
I think the main partner is the coalition government (KO) will be very happy to have come top with a very decent increase in vote share. PiS will be less happy with a lot of their vote not turning out or 'being lost to the right'. It's the first time PiS has not won the popular vote in a national election since 2014. And a poor night for the other two parties in the coalition government. Third Way in particular sees a big drop in share compared to last year's parliamentary election, and the Left's vote more than halved on 2019.
KO (Centre right/ Pro EU) - 37.1% (+11.7%) / 21 seats (+7)
PiS (On the right end of right/ Soft anti EU) - 36.2% (-9.2%) / 20 seats (-6)
Confederation (far right + nationalist/ Anti EU) - 12.1% (+7.5%) / 6 seats (+6)
Third Way (Centre right + Agrarian/ Pro EU) - 6.9% (+2.3%) / 3 seats (-)
The Left (Centre left + left/ Pro EU) - 6.3% (-7.0%) / 3 seats (-5)
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Post by rcronald on Jun 10, 2024 17:00:00 GMT
100% counted in Poland. They have constituencies like the UK used to. Turnout 40.65%. I think the main partner is the coalition government (KO) will be very happy to have come top with a very decent increase in vote share. PiS will be less happy with a lot of their vote not turning out or 'being lost to the right'. It's the first time PiS has not won the popular vote in a national election since 2014. And a poor night for the other two parties in the coalition government. Third Way in particular sees a big drop in share compared to last year's parliamentary election, and the Left's vote more than halved on 2019. KO (Centre right/ Pro EU) - 37.1% (+11.7%) / 21 seats (+7) PiS (On the right end of right/ Soft anti EU) - 36.2% (-9.2%) / 20 seats (-6) Confederation (far right + nationalist/ Anti EU) - 12.1% (+7.5%) / 6 seats (+6) Third Way (Centre right + Agrarian/ Pro EU) - 6.9% (+2.3%) / 3 seats (-) The Left (Centre left + left/ Pro EU) - 6.3% (-7.0%) / 3 seats (-5) It should be noted that PiS significantly overperformed the polls. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438
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Post by iain on Jun 10, 2024 17:14:45 GMT
100% counted in Poland. They have constituencies like the UK used to. Turnout 40.65%. I think the main partner is the coalition government (KO) will be very happy to have come top with a very decent increase in vote share. PiS will be less happy with a lot of their vote not turning out or 'being lost to the right'. It's the first time PiS has not won the popular vote in a national election since 2014. And a poor night for the other two parties in the coalition government. Third Way in particular sees a big drop in share compared to last year's parliamentary election, and the Left's vote more than halved on 2019. KO (Centre right/ Pro EU) - 37.1% (+11.7%) / 21 seats (+7) PiS (On the right end of right/ Soft anti EU) - 36.2% (-9.2%) / 20 seats (-6) Confederation (far right + nationalist/ Anti EU) - 12.1% (+7.5%) / 6 seats (+6) Third Way (Centre right + Agrarian/ Pro EU) - 6.9% (+2.3%) / 3 seats (-) The Left (Centre left + left/ Pro EU) - 6.3% (-7.0%) / 3 seats (-5) It should be noted that PiS significantly overperformed the polls. KO and PiS overperformed the polls by a similar amount (and KO probably slightly more). |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 10, 2024 17:33:08 GMT
It should be noted that PiS significantly overperformed the polls. KO and PiS overperformed the polls by a similar amount (and KO probably slightly more). You’re correct about PO overperforming as well, but the majority of the poll had them leading by more than 1%… Edit: Just to note, I’m personally not a fan of PiS at all, so I’m not saying what I’m saying out of political bias… |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jun 10, 2024 17:33:55 GMT
Yes, but is one which ensures that, in an election where over 85% of all votes count, over a quarter of the remaining votes don't, really a sensible or a desirable one? Votes still count even if they don’t go to a winning candidate/party. It’s called ‘loosing’ Um, yes, but... In a voting system that is specifically designed so that the bar for "winning" in this sense is as low as 4% or 5%, it still doesn't seem sensible to get so particular about what one wants in one's representatives that one can't attract even that level of support for them. In an FPTP election, where the equivalent bar is effectively something near 10 times higher, then there is far more reason for refusing to relax one's standards - in that if, as is likely in practice, only one candidate can be expected to reach that bar, refusing to support a "loser" that one prefers to the likely winner is equivalent to completely scrapping those standards. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jun 10, 2024 18:56:22 GMT
100% counted in Poland. They have constituencies like the UK used to. Turnout 40.65%. I think the main partner in the coalition government (KO) will be very happy to have come top with a very decent increase in vote share. PiS will be less happy with a lot of their vote not turning out or 'being lost to the right'. It's the first time PiS has not won the popular vote in a national election since 2014. And a poor night for the other two parties in the coalition government. Third Way in particular sees a big drop in share compared to last year's parliamentary election, and the Left's vote more than halved on 2019. KO (Centre right/ Pro EU) - 37.1% (+11.7%) / 21 seats (+7) PiS (On the right end of right/ Soft anti EU) - 36.2% (-9.2%) / 20 seats (-6) Confederation (far right + nationalist/ Anti EU) - 12.1% (+7.5%) / 6 seats (+6) Third Way (Centre right + Agrarian/ Pro EU) - 6.9% (+2.3%) / 3 seats (-) The Left (Centre left + left/ Pro EU) - 6.3% (-7.0%) / 3 seats (-5) It should be noted that PiS significantly overperformed the polls.
iain got there first, but KO and PiS both significantly overperfomed versus the polls. Third Way was the big loser against their polling figures with the Left also doing quite badly.
You're quite wrong on polling too when you say most showed KO leading by more than 1. +1 was about average for the KO lead.
The final polls had them leading by +1 (Pollster), +1 (OGB), +1 (IBRiS), +4 (IPSOS), +/- 0 (ewybory), and +2 (Opinia24).
The actual margin.... KO +1. Now, other than Ipsos, which pollster missed on the final margin by a notable amount?
It's pretty hard to spin this in a pro PiS way.
For other elections, don't forget, turnout, whilst high for a Polish EU election, was down quite significantly on last year's parliamentary election and is much lower than what next year's presidential turnout will be. The electorate will be different. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 10, 2024 19:12:56 GMT
Latvia
At the 2019 election the 8 members returned were
New Unity 2
National Alliance 2
Harmony 2
Development/For 1
Russian Union 1
1 of the National Alliance MEPs defected to New Unity. In the wake of the Ukraine war, the government started a treason case in the courts against the Russian Union MEP on the grounds that she'd been spying for Russia. She was barred from standing this time. Harmony, which gets its support from ethnic Russians, also split after strongly condemning Russia over Ukraine. The breakaway party, Stability, usurped Harmony as the largest Russian party at the last Latvian parliamentary election, when Harmony missed the 5% threshold. Development and For ended their alliance and ran separately this time.
The only slight surprise this year was that New Unity managed to get most votes after polls had shown them behind National Alliance. However, their defector failed to hold her seat, which reverted to the National Alliance. Each won 2 seats. Development easily held their seat, though their former allies "For" finished last.
Harmony's support collapsed from 19% to 7% and they lost 1 of their seats but they came out as the largest Russian party, mainly because their lead candidate is the popular former Riga mayor Nils Ušakovs. The Russian Union didn't stand an alternative candidate.
Gains (including of the additional seat given post-Brexit) were made by Progressives (their lead candidate was another former Riga mayor), United List and the Trump-inspired Latvia First.
Also of note was the poor performance on the New Unity list of Krišjānis Kariņš who had been Latvian Prime Minister until last year. He'd been 2nd on the New Unity ballot but was downvoted to 6th. His reputation has tanked due to controversy over his use of private planes at state expense during his time as PM.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 10, 2024 19:22:37 GMT
The BBC seem to think that this was an election between the SPD and AfD. Voters "seduced by simple solutions", unmoved by the apparent brilliance of Scholzomat and Katie B. No consideration that: - the government is unpopular. - Scholz is considered a ditherer and there's a bingo card for you to play every time he speaks. - the Union are back and are on top in almost every district in the west. - the eastern states combined have roughly the same electorate as Bavaria. And the AfD vote in the west is why they are second. - the Hessen state election showed pretty clearly that SPD voters have been moving to the CDU and even directly to the AfD. Coverage of this year's elections in the UK has been broadly awful. In fairness, it has been fairly dismal here in Germany! |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 10, 2024 19:22:48 GMT
Latvia At the 2019 election the 8 members returned were New Unity 2 National Alliance 2 Harmony 2 Development/For 1 Russian Union 1 1 of the National Alliance MEPs defected to New Unity. In the wake of the Ukraine war, the government started a treason case in the courts against the Russian Union MEP on the grounds that she'd been spying for Russia. She was barred from standing this time. Harmony, which gets its support from ethnic Russians, also split after strongly condemning Russia over Ukraine. The breakaway party, Stability, usurped Harmony as the largest Russian party at the last Latvian parliamentary election, when Harmony missed the 5% threshold. Development and For ended their alliance and ran separately this time. The only slight surprise this year was that New Unity managed to get most votes after polls had shown them behind National Alliance. However, their defector failed to hold her seat, which reverted to the National Alliance. Each won 2 seats. Development easily held their seat, though their former allies "For" finished last. Harmony's support collapsed from 19% to 7% and they lost 1 of their seats but they came out as the largest Russian party, mainly because their lead candidate is the popular former Riga mayor Nils Ušakovs. The Russian Union didn't stand an alternative candidate. Gains (including of the additional seat given post-Brexit) were made by Progressives (their lead candidate was another former Riga mayor), United List and the Trump-inspired Latvia First. Also of note was the poor performance on the New Unity list of Krišjānis Kariņš who had been Latvian Prime Minister until last year. He'd been 2nd on the New Unity ballot but was downvoted to 6th. His reputation has tanked due to controversy over his use of private planes at state expense during his time as PM. What would you say is the most likely group for United List? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 10, 2024 19:57:35 GMT
And Krah has been refused admission to the AfD delegation. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 10, 2024 20:04:52 GMT
And Krah has been refused admission to the AfD delegation. Probably increases the chance of an AFD readmission into ID. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,587
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jun 10, 2024 21:19:41 GMT
Latvia At the 2019 election the 8 members returned were New Unity 2 National Alliance 2 Harmony 2 Development/For 1 Russian Union 1 A naive or mischievous person might, on the basis of the names of the parties but not knowing about the circumstances or context, propose a merger of the first three of those parties. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2024 21:26:25 GMT
app.nos.nl/nieuws/ep2024/Link to individual results for every city, and to extra info (like where did the party votes came from, where did the 2023 votes go.) Among other things it shows that more than 60% of CDA voters did not vote for that party in 2023. 3% DENK to SGP? Wtf is going on there!? |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 11, 2024 5:18:54 GMT
They are both parties for conservative religious nutters, so there is some overlap.
The SGP MEP was given the choice between his party having no MEP or a female MEP, and he refused to answer. Denk in 2023 had a campaign add, targeting the Pride flag.
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Post by therealriga on Jun 11, 2024 6:25:59 GMT
Latvia At the 2019 election the 8 members returned were New Unity 2 National Alliance 2 Harmony 2 Development/For 1 Russian Union 1 1 of the National Alliance MEPs defected to New Unity. In the wake of the Ukraine war, the government started a treason case in the courts against the Russian Union MEP on the grounds that she'd been spying for Russia. She was barred from standing this time. Harmony, which gets its support from ethnic Russians, also split after strongly condemning Russia over Ukraine. The breakaway party, Stability, usurped Harmony as the largest Russian party at the last Latvian parliamentary election, when Harmony missed the 5% threshold. Development and For ended their alliance and ran separately this time. The only slight surprise this year was that New Unity managed to get most votes after polls had shown them behind National Alliance. However, their defector failed to hold her seat, which reverted to the National Alliance. Each won 2 seats. Development easily held their seat, though their former allies "For" finished last. Harmony's support collapsed from 19% to 7% and they lost 1 of their seats but they came out as the largest Russian party, mainly because their lead candidate is the popular former Riga mayor Nils Ušakovs. The Russian Union didn't stand an alternative candidate. Gains (including of the additional seat given post-Brexit) were made by Progressives (their lead candidate was another former Riga mayor), United List and the Trump-inspired Latvia First. Also of note was the poor performance on the New Unity list of Krišjānis Kariņš who had been Latvian Prime Minister until last year. He'd been 2nd on the New Unity ballot but was downvoted to 6th. His reputation has tanked due to controversy over his use of private planes at state expense during his time as PM. What would you say is the most likely group for United List? Hard to say, the Green group seems too left-wing for them. Renew would be closest but they have policy differences with that as well. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 11, 2024 8:41:37 GMT
I have this morning received a SPD electoral communication in the post.
A victory for Deutsche Post.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 11, 2024 12:24:59 GMT
Italy 63.421 out of 63.905 reported Brothers of Italy 28.77% Democratic Party 24.09% 5 Stars 9.98% Forza Italia 9.61% Lega 8.99% Green Left 6.76% United States of Europe (Renzi+Bonino) 3.77% Azione (Calenda) 3.35% Seats should split Brothers of Italy 25 (+19) PD 20 (+1) 5 Stars 8 (-6) Forza Italia 8 (+1) Lega 8 (-21) Green Left 6 (+6) SVP 1 (=) Final distribution is Brothers of Italy 24 seats, PD 21. Rest as above. PD will be the largest delegation in S&D group (as Spanish PS got 20 seats) |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 11, 2024 20:00:06 GMT
Italian MEPs (they have open lists with voters expressing up to 3 preferences for individual candidates of the party they voted for)
Fratelli d'Italia
North West: Meloni, Fidanza MEP, Mantovani, Crosetto, Magoni, Fiocchi MEP, Vivaldini (Inselvini will get in when Meloni doesn't take her seat)
North East: Meloni, Donazzan, Cavedagna, Ciriani (Polato in instead of Meloni)
Centre: Meloni, Procaccini MEP, Squarta, Ciccioli, Sberna (Torselli)
South: Meloni, Gambino, Ventola, Nesci MEP, Picaro (Gemma MEP)
Islands: Meloni, Milazzo MEP (Razza)
Sofo (Marechal Le Pen) who defected from Lega wasn't re-elected.
PD
North West: Strada, Gori, Zan, Tinagli MEP, Benifei MEP (Maran)
North East: Bonaccini, Zan, Moretti MEP, Gualmini MEP, Corrado (Zanoni)
Centre: Schlein, Zingaretti, Nardella, Ricci, Laureti MEP (Tarquinio)
South: Decaro, Annunziata, Topo, Picierno MEP, Ruotolo
Islands: Schlein (Lupo)
Toia, Covassi and Bartolo and M5S defector Rondinelli have lost their seats
5 Stars
North West: Pedullà
North East: no seats
Centre: Morace, Tamburrano
South: Tridico, Palmisano, Furore MEP, Della Valle
Islands: Antoci
Pignedoli and Danzì lost their seats
Forza Italia
North West: Tajani, Moratti (Salini MEP)
North East: Tajani (Tosi)
Centre: Tajani (De Meo MEP)
South: Tajani, Martusciello MEP (Princi)
Islands: Tajani, Falcone (Chinnici MEP...who was elected for PD in 2019)
Mussolini, Peppucci, Vuolo, Zambelli, Lega defector Gazzini and M5S defector Adinolfi lost their seats
Lega
North West: Vannacci, Sardone MEP, Tovaglieri MEP (Ciocca MEP)
North East: Vannacci, Cisint (Borchia MEP)
Centre:Vannacci (Ceccardi MEP)
South: Vannacci (Patriciello MEP)
Islands: Stancanelli MEP (elected for Lega in 2019)
Panza, Gancia, Lancini, Conte,Lizzi, Basso, Bonfrisco, Grant, Tardino lost their seats
Green / Left
North West:Salis, Lucano (Marino, Scuderi)
North East: Lucano (Guarda)
Centre: Marino (Grassadonia)
South: Lucano (Borrelli)
Islands: Salis (Lucano, Orlando)
PD defector Smeriglio lost his seat
SVP
North East: Dorfmann MEP
Those within () will certainly be elected (when Meloni, Tajani and Schlein are the first elected) or can get in (because Zan, Vannacci, Salis, Marino and Lucan must pick only one constituency)
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Jun 13, 2024 7:24:18 GMT
And 4 out of 5 Reconquete MEPs (Marion Maréchal, Guillaume Peltier, Nicolas Bay et Laurence Trochu) have been kicked out by Zemmour because they want an alliance with RN. Only MEP left is Sarah Knafo who is Zammour's partner. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 13, 2024 7:45:39 GMT
And 4 out of 5 Reconquete MEPs (Marion Maréchal, Guillaume Peltier, Nicolas Bay et Laurence Trochu) have been kicked out by Zemmour because they want an alliance with RN. Only MEP left is Sarah Knafo who is Zammour's partner. But they are still going to remain in ECR. |
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