Local Council By-elections 29th February 2024

[Tony Otim]

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE UA; Minster & Woodmansley (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
ELVIDGE, David Keith (Conservative)
HENDERSON, Tony (Liberal Democrat)
LADEN, Ron (Labour)
STEPHENSON, Jonathan (Green)

2023: LD 1783, 1764, 1603; Con 1137, 1117, 1104; Lab 1137, 1131, 996; Alliance for Freedom & Democracy 182
2019: Con 1584, 1401, 1390; Lab 1350, 1292, 1188; LD 1112, 1106, 1042
2015: Con 3050, 2947, 2469; Lab 2341, 2256, 2042; UKIP 1579; Beverley Party 1306, 1021; LD 613, 480
2011: Con 2075, 2064, 1764; Lab 1733, 1559, 1552; Grn 889; LD 857; Ind 689
2007: Con 1555, 1518, 1470; Lab 1483, 1472, 1337; LD 1068, 938, 800; Grn 611
2003: Lab 1866, 1645, 1465; Con 1127, 1006, 977; LD 785, 618, 524; Ind 574; Grn 319

David Elvidge (Con) was councillor for the ward 2011-23 and top Conservative last May. Ron Laden was the top Labour candidate last May.


EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE UA; Tranby (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
HARRISON, Ross Douglas (Liberal Democrat)
ROBINSON, Jane Nicola (Green)
STATHER, Malcolm Richard (Labour)
WHITEHEAD, Michael Stephen (Conservative)

2023: LD 1207, 1115; Lab 496, 423; Con 467; Grn 201
2019: LD 1034, 1008; Con 872; Ind 678; Lab 332
2015: LD 2114, 1607; Con 1773, 1424; Lab 1267, 1058
2011: LD 1093, 1046; Lab 1077, 1058; Con 683, 581; ED 394, 367
2007: LD 1605, 1557; Con 618, 607; ED 612, 544; Lab 202, 183
2003: LD 1544, 1491; Con 759, 679; Lab 282, 230

Jane Robinson was the Green candidate here last year. Malcolm Stather (Lab) stood in Willerby & Kirk Ella and Michael Whitehead (Con) in Hessle.

Current Council: Con 29; LD 19; Ind Grp 7; Lab 5; Yorkshire Party 3; Ind 2; 2 vacancies



GREAT YARMOUTH DC; Central & Northgate (Lab disqualified)
Candidates:
DWYER-McCLUSKEY, James (Labour)
HAMMOND, Paul Charles (Conservative)
HARRIS, Tony (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Lab 596, 578, 574; Con 318, 295, 258; Ind 228; LD 153
2019: Lab 528, 485, 438; UKIP 453; Ind 422; Con 287, 270, 207
2018: Lab 651, 599; Con 392, 363; UKIP 246, 175; Tribune 61
2016: UKIP 602; Lab 523; Con 247; LD 85
2015: Lab 1141; UKIP 978; Con 731; Grn 110; Pat Soc 11
2014: UKIP 858; Lab 588; Con 303; Grn 104
2012: Lab 755; Con 317; UKIP 295; LD 36
2011: Lab 960; Con 651; LD 117
2010: Lab 1256; Con 1089; LD 484
2008: Lab 636; Con 560; UKIP 143; LD 135
2007: Lab 659; Con 492; UKIP 155; LD 150; Grn 99
2006: Lab 688; Con 522; LD 150; UKIP 122; Grn 96
2004: Lab 773, 746, 736; Con 719, 632, 538; LD 318

Anthony Harris (assuming the same person) stood here for the LDs from 2004-2008 and in 2016 and has also contested the Yamouth North & Central County division (which is mainly this ward) at every county election since 2005. He stood in Yarmouth North last May, as did James Dwyer-McCluskey and Paul Hammond for their parties, with the latter being the incumbent who lost his seat, having first been elected for UKIP in 2016 and then as a Conservative in 2019.

Current Council: Con 19; Lab 17; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



HORSHAM DC; Henfield (Ind died)
Candidates:
AYRES, Fiona Georgina May (Labour)
KEARNS, Nico Alexander (Liberal Democrat)
LLOYD, Tim (Conservative)
PERRY, Gill (Green)

2023: Ind 766; Con 753; Grn 742, 267; Lab 590; LD 193, 83
2019: Ind 1088; Con 614, 507; Grn 531; Lab 505

The Independents elected in 2019 &2023 were different. Gill Perry was the top Green in 2023 and Fiona Ayres the Labour candidate in both 2023 & 2019 and also contested the Henfield County division in 2021. Tim Lloyd (Con) is former councillor for Steyning & Ashurst ward, where he was defeated last year.


HORSHAM DC; Southwater North (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BARLOW, Minty (Labour)
HAYES, Gary Brian (Liberal Democrat)
NUIN SMITH, Jennifer Helen (Green)
VICKERS, Claire (Conservative)

2023: LD 732, 730; Con 633, 605; Lab 155, 126; Grn 151, 149
2019: Con 842, 814; LD 561, 557; Lab 155, 113

Claire Vickers (Con) is former councillor for the ward, defeated last year. Gary Hayes (LD) was the top Lib Dem here in 2019 but didn’t stand last May. Minty Barlow (Lab) stood in Itchingfield, Slinfold & Warnham ward last year.

Current Council: LD 27; Con 11; Grn 8; 2 vacancies

[greenman]

Does the Independent who died have any former political ties, noting that there were only nine votes between Green and Conservative in 2023.

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Feb 15, 2024 0:53:52 GMT greenman said:

Does the Independent who died have any former political ties, noting that there were only nine votes between Green and Conservative in 2023.

I'd assume not, just on the basis that there were two Green candidates so they clearly didn't stand aside for the independent. Indeed, it's pretty clear from the numbers that their top candidate has a local following as she wasn't the first of them alphabetically, so the second candidate potentially looks like a paper candidate put up in an attempt to depress the independent and other vote.

Overall, a slightly odd line up last time in that there were two Lib Dems (despite their not having stood before and being bottom of the poll) and two Greens, but only one Tory and one Labour despite the Tory getting in and Labour being competitive (one Indy is less surprising).

Normally, you'd associate one candidate in a multi-member ward with either, "well, we're not going to win but Bob is willing to fly the flag" or a local deal. But both Tory and Labour might have hoped to get two candidates over the line had they stood two, and it seems unlikely they did a deal with each other or that BOTH did a deal with the Indy. 

[greenman]

In terms of Henfield I note the Greens gained 3.9% in Romney Marsh, which is not as good as 23.7% in 2019 when they were 1 vote behind the 2nd Conservative, but in Romney Marsh the Conservative Tony Hills dropped from 26.6% to 24.1%. The LD vote dropped from 7.9% to .7%. Labour dropped from 26.1% and 23.5% to 19%. If similar swings happen in Henfield then Green will overtake Conservative as there was only a 9 vote difference between them in 2023. The main question will be where does that Independent vote go?

My observation is that where LD can overtake Conservative some of the Green vote swings away to support that and sometimes to Labour to. So there is a possibility that a similiar swing to Green could occur in Henfield, if the trend is to remove another Conservative.

[Tony Otim]

I'm not sure that Romney Marsh and Henfield are similar enough to make for many meaningful comparisons...

There is a question as to where the independent vote goes, but also note that there was only one Con, one Lab and huge gap between the top and second Green, with each voter having 2 votes - so worth considering that those vote totals will already also contain a number of votes from people who also voted for the Indy as well...

[greenman]

So you are suggesting that the top Green already got some votes from people who also voted Green. That said I observe that in places where Greens did well in 2023 their vote seems to be holding up, hence the comparison with Folkstone and Hythe and Horsham, who seem to be in an area of the south outside London where Green candidates did well and gained seats of the Conservatives.

[greenman]

Sorry I meant to say Independent.

[phil156]

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE will count both on Thursday evening
HORSHAM will count theirs of Friday morning
Regarding GREAT YARMOUTH I have sent 2 emails - no reply will ring tomorrow unless anybody else knows

[carlton43]

Feb 28, 2024 20:29:13 GMT phil156 said:

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE will count both on Thursday evening
HORSHAM will count theirs of Friday morning
Regarding GREAT YARMOUTH I have sent 2 emails - no reply will ring tomorrow unless anybody else knows

They are                                    a                 bit slow                     in Norfolk                 an d may                    not know                   there is             an election               on!

[pw]

GY is counting on Thursday evening.

[John Chanin]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-rochdale-parliamentary-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-29th-february-c564a1419977

[phil156]

Feb 29, 2024 6:04:36 GMT pw said:

GY is counting on Thursday evening.

  Oh cheers for that so 3 to fill the time up before Rochdale 

[batman]

Feb 28, 2024 23:10:45 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 28, 2024 20:29:13 GMT phil156 said:

EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE will count both on Thursday evening
HORSHAM will count theirs of Friday morning
Regarding GREAT YARMOUTH I have sent 2 emails - no reply will ring tomorrow unless anybody else knows

They are                                    a                 bit slow                     in Norfolk                 an d may                    not know                   there is             an election               on!

Norfolk don't different?

[southernliberal]

So on paper it looks like it'll be three Liberal Democrat holds, one Labour hold and a Green gain from Independent.

One for all the main English parties bar the Tories.

[andrewp]

Feb 29, 2024 12:32:20 GMT southernliberal said:

So on paper it looks like it'll be three Liberal Democrat holds, one Labour hold and a Green gain from Independent.

One for all the main English parties bar the Tories.

It’s very much not the most likely outcome in any of them, but in 3 of the 5, a Tory gain wouldn’t absolutely shock me. 

[southernliberal]

Feb 29, 2024 12:35:40 GMT andrewp said:

Feb 29, 2024 12:32:20 GMT southernliberal said:

So on paper it looks like it'll be three Liberal Democrat holds, one Labour hold and a Green gain from Independent.

One for all the main English parties bar the Tories.

It’s very much not the most likely outcome in any of them, but in 3 of the 5, a Tory gain wouldn’t absolutely shock me. 

True. Especially depending on where the 2023 independent voters go too in the potential Green gain ward. I expect the local Lib Dems and Greens are targeting one ward each based on resources 2023 results.

[andrewp]

Feb 29, 2024 12:51:22 GMT southernliberal said:

Feb 29, 2024 12:35:40 GMT andrewp said:

It’s very much not the most likely outcome in any of them, but in 3 of the 5, a Tory gain wouldn’t absolutely shock me. 

True. Especially depending on where the 2023 independent voters go too in the potential Green gain ward. I expect the local Lib Dems and Greens are targeting one ward each based on resources 2023 results.

I hope they are because that is what I based my predictions on!

[carlton43]

Feb 29, 2024 11:50:00 GMT batman said:

Feb 28, 2024 23:10:45 GMT carlton43 said:

They are                                    a                 bit slow                     in Norfolk                 an d may                    not know                   there is             an election               on!

Norfolk don't different?

Doo  Waell!  Sort o-o-offf!

Whart wus it you arsked?

[greenman]

I am fascinated by IanBX's prediction that the Conservative will win Henfield by 5% over Green. Between 2019 and 2023 the Conservative vote increased from 22.4% to 39.6% for their lead candidate, them having dropped a second candidate. Between 2019 and 2023 Labour's single candidate went from 18.4% to 31%. Green went from 19.4% for a single candidate to 39% for the lead and 14% for the second. Liberals went from no candidate to two obtaining 10% and 4.4%. And the Independent went from 39.7% to 40.3%. Seems to me that a large proportion of those who voted for the lead Green also voted for the Independent, 25% and around 6% of LD voters too. So we are really only unclear as to around how 9.3% of Independent voters might cast their ballot.

[batman]

I'm very surprised Labour has a presence in Henfield.