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Post by greenman on Feb 29, 2024 22:38:51 GMT
The non Conservative vote was 34% in 2011, 32.4% in 2015 and 77.5% in 2019, so clearly Brexit altered voters perception of Conservatives, even at local government level.
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Post by mattb on Feb 29, 2024 22:42:57 GMT
The non Conservative vote was 34% in 2011, 32.4% in 2015 and 77.5% in 2019, so clearly Brexit altered voters perception of Conservatives, even at local government level. Only if you assume the Ind vote is non-Cons - that's a stretch when the Ind was not opposed by the Cons. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 29, 2024 23:12:36 GMT
GREAT YARMOUTH Central and Northgate
Electorate 5,945
Ballot Papers Issued 925
James Dwyer-McCluskey (Labour Party) 482 (52.6%)
Paul Charles Hammond (The Conservative Party Candidate) 296 (32.3%)
Tony Harris (Liberal Democrats) 139 (15.2%)
8 spoilt papers
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Post by andrewp on Feb 29, 2024 23:23:25 GMT
Changes in Great Yarmouth
Lab +6.6%
Con +7.7%
Ld +3.4%
No Ind from before
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Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 0:02:15 GMT
Bearing in mind that this by-election was caused by a Labour disqualification I think we will be satisfied by that
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 1, 2024 0:02:38 GMT
LD hold on Tranby (East Riding)
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 1, 2024 0:23:59 GMT
LD hold in Woodmansley (East Riding)
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Post by matureleft on Mar 1, 2024 2:29:40 GMT
I'm very surprised Labour has a presence in Henfield. The candidate owns and runs the local shop. I met her fairly recently. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 1, 2024 7:51:45 GMT
I am fascinated by IanBX's prediction that the Conservative will win Henfield by 5% over Green. Between 2019 and 2023 the Conservative vote increased from 22.4% to 39.6% for their lead candidate, them having dropped a second candidate. Between 2019 and 2023 Labour's single candidate went from 18.4% to 31%. Green went from 19.4% for a single candidate to 39% for the lead and 14% for the second. Liberals went from no candidate to two obtaining 10% and 4.4%. And the Independent went from 39.7% to 40.3%. Seems to me that a large proportion of those who voted for the lead Green also voted for the Independent, 25% and around 6% of LD voters too. So we are really only unclear as to around how 9.3% of Independent voters might cast their ballot. We read the room differently, clearly. Very little of what you say makes much sense at all to me. I think its bloody obvious that the Ind and the Con draw mainly from the same pool of voters. And that the Labour candidate has a personal vote because they run the local shop and that the Green vote is to an extent shared with the Labour vote. So in a single candidate election you have to try to work out what the Green base vote is and that's really the only significant part of the puzzle. I chose a lower figure that others, we will see who is right in a few hours. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2024 10:30:50 GMT
Percentages and changes from 2023 in East Yorkshire
Tranby
LD 55.3% (+4.4)
Lab 23.6% (+2.7)
Con 15.5% (-4.2)
Green 5.6% (-2.9)
Minster and Woodmansey
LD 50.7% (+8.6)
Con 24.9% (-1.9)
Lab 17.4% (-9.4)
Green 7% (new)
No AFD from last year
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Post by Varamyr Kahn on Mar 1, 2024 11:45:37 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2024 11:49:24 GMT
Henfield
Green 668
Con 569
Lab 215
LD 59
Green gain from Ind
Southwater North
Con 618
LD 388
Green 162
Lab 92
Con gain from LD
That is the first seat that the LDs have lost to either Labour or the Conservatives since May 2023.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Mar 1, 2024 11:53:28 GMT
Henfield Green 668 Con 569 Lab 215 LD 59 Green gain from Ind Southwater North Con 618 LD 388 Green 162 Lab 92 Con gain from LD That is the first seat that the LDs have lost to either Labour or the Conservatives since May 2023. Ouch. Ah well. |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 1, 2024 11:54:46 GMT
Henfield Green 668 Con 569 Lab 215 LD 59 Green gain from Ind Southwater North Con 618 LD 388 Green 162 Lab 92 Con gain from LD That is the first seat that the LDs have lost to either Labour or the Conservatives since May 2023. Yes, the Labour Henfield candidate suggested to me that her support was getting a strong squeeze from the Green who. I think, was also local. Her campaign seemed a bit rudimentary, unsurprising in a place where any Labour activity would have been very distant. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,743
Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Mar 1, 2024 11:55:23 GMT
Well, I don't think that was supposed to happen
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Mar 1, 2024 11:56:38 GMT
Araminta (Minty) Barlow is a fabulous Labour name.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,843 
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Post by Crimson King on Mar 1, 2024 11:59:05 GMT
defending a resignation less than a year after a narrow win gonna be tricky
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Mar 1, 2024 12:01:26 GMT
defending a resignation less than a year after a narrow win gonna be tricky And there are planning issues which, if the boot was on the other foot....fill in the gaps. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2024 12:01:49 GMT
I thought that whilst it wasn’t the most likely outcome in either, a Tory gain didn’t look impossible in either Horsham contest.
Their local by election results have Defitnely improved a bit, from a very low base, since Christmas, whilst at the same time national opinion poll ratings have got even worse for them. In local by elections January and February have been better than the Autumn was for them.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2024 12:03:24 GMT
defending a resignation less than a year after a narrow win gonna be tricky And there are planning issues which, if the boot was on the other foot....fill in the gaps. And the Tory candidate was the former council leader, who was defeated last May- although that of course could lead to a negative rather than positive effect, but presumably is at least a relatively known candidate. |
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