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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2024 12:24:59 GMT
I thought that whilst it wasn’t the most likely outcome in either, a Tory gain didn’t look impossible in either Horsham contest. Their local by election results have Defitnely improved a bit, from a very low base, since Christmas, whilst at the same time national opinion poll ratings have got even worse for them. In local by elections January and February have been better than the Autumn was for them. And it's interesting that there hasn't been an identifiable uptick in parliamentary by-elections - none of which necessarily have been in good circumstances for the Tories, but even so they've all been unambiguously terrible results. Whereas it looks like at a local level they've been more successful in separating themselves from the government, especially when they haven't been the defending party. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 1, 2024 12:42:10 GMT
Henfield Green 668 Con 569 Lab 215 LD 59 Green gain from Ind Southwater North Con 618 LD 388 Green 162 Lab 92 Con gain from LD That is the first seat that the LDs have lost to either Labour or the Conservatives since May 2023. Conservatives Winning Here Makes a Refreshing Change and wipes Smug Look of some faces. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,591
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2024 12:44:21 GMT
defending a resignation less than a year after a narrow win gonna be tricky And there are planning issues which, if the boot was on the other foot....fill in the gaps. Tories really are becoming impressively cynical in using Nimbyism at a local level, even when that often means effectively campaigning against their own government. But equally, that latter reality shows the limitations of such a strategy at Westminster level. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2024 13:32:41 GMT
An update on local by election statistics this municipal year, following the five contests on 29/02/2024
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 29th February 2024 there have now been 150 ordinary by elections for 152 seats since May 4th 2023
The Conservatives have defended 42- Held 17 and lost 25: 5 to the Greens, 14 to the Lib Dems, 5 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 40%) and have gained 10
Labour have defended 50- Held 36 and lost 14- 5 to the Conservatives, 5 to Independents, 3 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 72%) and have gained 10
Lib Dems have defended 28- Held 25 and lost 3, 1 each to the Conservatives and Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 89% ) and have gained 21
Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 9
There have been elections for 10 seats previously won by Independents: 4 have been won by an another Independent , 2 have been lost to the Greens and 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.And Independents have gained 9
Residents/ local groups have defended 6, held 4 and lost 2 to the Lib Dems.
SNP have defended 5, lost 5, 2 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 2, held 1 , lost 1 ( retention rate 50%) and have gained 1
Overall net changes
Con -15
Lab -4
LD +18
Green +5
Ind + 3
SNP -5
Res/ local groups -2
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 1, 2024 14:15:13 GMT
And there are planning issues which, if the boot was on the other foot....fill in the gaps. Tories really are becoming impressively cynical in using Nimbyism at a local level, even when that often means effectively campaigning against their own government. But equally, that latter reality shows the limitations of such a strategy at Westminster level. Since the Conservatives have lost control of so many councils, they can now run as the opposition, in circumstances where almost all councils are in financial difficulties and cutting services. Furthermore they can turn the nimby tables on the Liberal Democrats et al. No doubt the green leaflets with Conservative only in the small type help. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 14:59:20 GMT
Araminta (Minty) Barlow is a fabulous Labour name. there was for some years a Labour councillor in Hammersmith & Fulham called Araminta, though she was always known as Min. Used to know her. She wasn't your typical posh Araminta |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2024 15:28:54 GMT
Araminta (Minty) Barlow is a fabulous Labour name. there was for some years a Labour councillor in Hammersmith & Fulham called Araminta, though she was always known as Min. Used to know her. She wasn't your typical posh Araminta I remember (decades ago) a fictional character called Araminta Merryweather, but I can’t remember where from - a TV drama or children’s TV or soap or whatever. I don’t think it was from a book. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 1, 2024 16:34:28 GMT
there was for some years a Labour councillor in Hammersmith & Fulham called Araminta, though she was always known as Min. Used to know her. She wasn't your typical posh Araminta I remember (decades ago) a fictional character called Araminta Merryweather, but I can’t remember where from - a TV drama or children’s TV or soap or whatever. I don’t think it was from a book. Well, the only thing Google throws up is a character of that name in a 1991 US novel called Scandal, by Amanda Quick. It looks like a bit of a steamy romance, and the cover says the author also wrote Slightly Shady. Not your sort of thing, I'd have thought. |
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Post by greenman on Mar 1, 2024 18:08:21 GMT
I am not surprised by the result in Henfield as the Green candidate was a former head teacher (whatever that means) and member of Henfield Council, as is the Conservative candidate also a member of Henfield Council. Conservative support in Horsham dropped from 56.4% in 2015 to 33.8% in 2023, LD rose from 17.2% to 33.5%, Green from 3.6% to 20%, Labour from 7.8% to 10%, Ukip from 17.4% for UKIP to .3% for Reform. My observation is that this is a "Brexit" swing in a commuter community.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 1, 2024 18:28:40 GMT
Tories really are becoming impressively cynical in using Nimbyism at a local level, even when that often means effectively campaigning against their own government. But equally, that latter reality shows the limitations of such a strategy at Westminster level. Since the Conservatives have lost control of so many councils, they can now run as the opposition, in circumstances where almost all councils are in financial difficulties and cutting services. Furthermore they can turn the nimby tables on the Liberal Democrats et al. No doubt the green leaflets with Conservative only in the small type help. March should also be not too bad for the Conservatives - they only have 3 defences - all on 21st March and they should probably hold at least one of those. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 18:52:32 GMT
I am not surprised by the result in Henfield as the Green candidate was a former head teacher (whatever that means) and member of Henfield Council, as is the Conservative candidate also a member of Henfield Council. Conservative support in Horsham dropped from 56.4% in 2015 to 33.8% in 2023, LD rose from 17.2% to 33.5%, Green from 3.6% to 20%, Labour from 7.8% to 10%, Ukip from 17.4% for UKIP to .3% for Reform. My observation is that this is a "Brexit" swing in a commuter community. I would guess that a former head teacher is a former headteacher |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 1, 2024 22:43:05 GMT
I remember (decades ago) a fictional character called Araminta Merryweather, but I can’t remember where from - a TV drama or children’s TV or soap or whatever. I don’t think it was from a book. Well, the only thing Google throws up is a character of that name in a 1991 US novel called Scandal, by Amanda Quick. It looks like a bit of a steamy romance, and the cover says the author also wrote Slightly Shady. Not your sort of thing, I'd have thought. In 1921 a play by Dorothy Brandon called "Araminta Arrives" played for thirty nine performances at the Comedy Theatre. Brandon was best know for her later play "The Outsider". |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 2, 2024 7:25:08 GMT
Well, the only thing Google throws up is a character of that name in a 1991 US novel called Scandal, by Amanda Quick. It looks like a bit of a steamy romance, and the cover says the author also wrote Slightly Shady. Not your sort of thing, I'd have thought. In 1921 a play by Dorothy Brandon called "Araminta Arrives" played for thirty nine performances at the Comedy Theatre. Brandon was best know for her later play "The Outsider". Is she a Merryweather? Can't find any details of the character list |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 2, 2024 10:21:13 GMT
In 1921 a play by Dorothy Brandon called "Araminta Arrives" played for thirty nine performances at the Comedy Theatre. Brandon was best know for her later play "The Outsider". Is she a Merryweather? Can't find any details of the character list I'm not sure she's even given a surname. I was just looking for Aramintas in general. 
EDIT: As far as i can tell the play was never published, which isn't terribly helpful.  It wasn't a roaring success at the box office, shall we say. |
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Post by Clark on Mar 2, 2024 10:51:42 GMT
Since the Conservatives have lost control of so many councils, they can now run as the opposition, in circumstances where almost all councils are in financial difficulties and cutting services. Furthermore they can turn the nimby tables on the Liberal Democrats et al. No doubt the green leaflets with Conservative only in the small type help. March should also be not too bad for the Conservatives - they only have 3 defences - all on 21st March and they should probably hold at least one of those. I think Horsham was about the 5th safest Tory seat in 1997 - or it might've been 5th biggest majority - can't quite remember. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,591
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 2, 2024 11:17:07 GMT
Since the Conservatives have lost control of so many councils, they can now run as the opposition, in circumstances where almost all councils are in financial difficulties and cutting services. Furthermore they can turn the nimby tables on the Liberal Democrats et al. No doubt the green leaflets with Conservative only in the small type help. March should also be not too bad for the Conservatives - they only have 3 defences - all on 21st March and they should probably hold at least one of those. There is also a Devon seat which was vacated by an Independent elected as Tory, earlier in the month. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,389
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Post by Crimson King on Mar 2, 2024 11:52:49 GMT
Arguably the Minty with the most political impact was Carrot Ironfounderson’s first girlfriend, as it was parental disapproval that led to him moving to the city
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 3, 2024 16:50:51 GMT
GWBWI
Grn +78
LDm +47
Lab +29
Con +6
All shall have prizes. LibDems would have won the week if not for Southwater North. Mixed results for Cons and Lab.
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It wasn't a roaring success at the box office, shall we say. 