Local Council by-elections 22nd February 2024

[Tony Otim]

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE UA; Farnham Common & Burnham Beeches (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COLLINS, Alexa (Labour)
LINTON, Carol Lesley (Liberal Democrat)
MOORE, David (Conservative)

2021: Con 1421, 1384, 1372; LD 885, 819, 554; Lab 386, 292; RefUK 99

Carol Linton was the second Lib Dem last time and Alexa Collins the first Labour candidate.


BUCKINGHAMSHIRE UA; Hazlemere (Con died)
Candidates:
CASEY, Leigh Anthony (Independent)
DALE, Adam Christopher (Labour)
ROY, Steven John (Conservative)
TITTERINGTON, Mark (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Con 1624, 1373, 1156; Ind 1380; LD 371, 256; Lab 354, 314, 298; Freedom All 124

Mark Titterington stood for the Lib Dems in Chesham last time out.

Current Council: Con 109; LD 17; Ind 7; Lab 6; Wycombe Ind 3; Ind Network 2; Grn 1; 2 vacancies



DERBYSHIRE DALES DC; Bakewell (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BUTCHER, Bob (Labour)
CADOGAN, Claire Lorraine Faithorn (Liberal Democrat)
CROSBY, Lesley Wendy (Reform UK)
ELNAUGH-LOVE, Rachel Elizabeth (Independent)
PELTELL, Nicola (Green)
WALSH, Richard Noel (Conservative)

2023: Con 1011, 581; Lab 526; Grn 307; LD 178, 166; Ind 175

Given the rather large vote gap, it is worth noting that it is the top-placed Conservative who has resigned. Nicola Peltell (Grn) and Rachel Elnaugh-Love (Ind) both stood here last year. Claire Cadogan (LD) stood in Chatsworth and Richard Walsh (Con) in Darley Dale.


DERBYSHIRE DALES DC; Norbury (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Bob (Labour)
BULL, Sue (Conservative)
HILL, John James (Green)
SHIRTCLIFFE, Robin Michael (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Con 492; Lab 123; Grn 116

John Hill (Grn) stood here last year and has also contested the Ashbourne county division which contains this ward. Steve BULL is the sitting Conservative councillor for that division – Sue is possibly a relative? She is, in any case, former councillor for Ashbourne North ward where she stood unsuccessfully in May. Robin Shirtcliffe (LD) stood in Ashbourne South last year.

Current Council: LD 12; Con 9; Lab 6; Grn 4; Non-aligned 1; 2 vacancies



FOLKESTONE & HYTHE DC; Romney Marsh (Con resigned)
Candidates:
COOPER, Chrissie (Labour)
EVANS, Dave (Independent)
HILLS, Tony (Conservative)
HORROX, Matt (Liberal Democrat)
MEYERS, Ian Barry (Independent)
PEACOCK, Paul Andrew (Independent)
RYE, Kim Elizabeth (Reform UK)
WATKINSON, Malcolm (Green)
YOUNG, Dougie (No Description)

2023:Con 647, 532; Lab 534, 481; Ind 491, 451; Grn 357; LD 161; No Desc 60
2019: UKIP 851, 810; Con 630, 553; Grn 552; Lab 309, 285; LD 272
2015: UKIP 1375, 1261; Con 1343, 1234; Lab 516, 420; Ind 287, 231; LD 216

Chrissie Cooper (Lab) stood here in 2019, but stood in Walland and Denge Marsh last year (I suspect she’s also related the sitting Labour cllr Tony Cooper). Dave Evans was the second independent who stood here in 2015. Tony Hills was the unsuccessful Conservative here last May and is sitting county councillor for Romney Marsh division (which contains most but not all this ward). Ian Meyers was elected as UKIP cllr for the ward in 2019 and failed to hold his seat as an independent last year, he also contested Romney Marsh division for UKIP in 2021 and Hythe West division (which contains the rest of the ward) as an independent in the by-election last year. Douglas Young was the No Description candidate here last year. Matthew Horrox stood in Folkestone Central last year, Kim Rye (RefUK) as an independent in Walland & Denge Marsh and Malcolm Watkinson on New Romney (he also contested Romney Marsh division at the last council elections).

Current Council: Grn 11; Lab 10; Con 4; Ind 2; LD 2; 1 vacancy



MILTON KEYNES UA; Loughton & Shenley (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BRADY, Ray (Independent)
GREEN, Garrath Jonathan (Liberal Democrat)
LEE, Timothy Aaron (Green)
MONTAGUE, Leo (Labour)
SHARMA, Rajeev (Conservative)

2023: Lab 1652; Con 1315; LD 264; Grn 178
2022: Lab 2145; Con 1564; LD 232; Grn 194
2021: Lab 2106; Con 1836; LD 198; Grn 195
2019: Con 1609; Lab 1573; Grn 320; LD 302
2018: Con 1887; Lab 1683; LD 240; Grn 179
2016: Lab 1997; Con 1618; LD 240
2015: Con 3283; Lab 2026; UKIP 721; LD 448; Grn 392
2014: Lab 1353, 1338, 1126; Con 1321, 1283, 1282; UKIP 716, 607, 598; Grn 405; LD 233, 228, 180

Vacancy is for the 2023-27 term. Rajeev Sharma (Con) and Garrath Green (LD) both stood here last year, with Green also having stood in 2021. Also last year, Ray Brady (Ind) stood for Reform in Bletchley West, where has previously stood both as an independent and for UKIP.

Current Council: Lab 26; LD 16; Con 14; 1 vacancy



SCOTTISH BORDERS UA; Jedburgh & District (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
BATHGATE, John Lawrence (Conservative)
CLARK, James Douglas (Scottish Eco-Federalists)
DIXON, Phil (SNP)
GEORGESON, Ray (Liberal Democrat)
HUGHES, Kaymarie (Labour)
STRANG, Charles (Green)

2022: Con 1089, 675; SNP 675; Ind 529, 102; Grn 250; Alba 53
2017: Con 1094, 1026; SNP 755; Ind 600, 70; Grn 171; Lab 119
2012: Con 702, 413; SNP 759; Ind 549; LD 388; Borders 258; Lab 169
2007: Con 1011, 878; SNP 877; LD 716; Borders 316; Ind 87

John Bathgate (Con) was the top Independent candidate in 2022 and the Lib Dem candidate in 2012. Charles Strang (Grn) has stood here for the last 2 elections). James Clark stood for the Scottish Eco-Federalists in Galashiels & District ward in 2022 and Kay Hughes for Labour in Hawick & Denholm.

Current Council: Con 14; SNP 8; Ind 7; LD 3; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



WILTSHIRE UA; Calne Chilvester & Abberd (Con died)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Taylor Paul Dickson (Conservative)
MacNAUGHTON, Robert (Liberal Democrat)
MASLEN, Nick (Labour)
PILCHER-CLAYTON, Hugh (Green)

2021: Con 574; LD 332; Lab 179; Grn 136

Hugh Pilcher-Clayton stood for the Greens in 2021 in Calne Rural.

Current Council: Con 60; LD 27; Ind 6; Lab 3; 2 vacancies

[ricmk]

Worth noting that Hazlemere is going into Chesham and Amersham at the GE so the Lib Dems (and Tories) have incentive to work it, and it’ll be a good indicator of the lie of the land there.

MK will be Lab vs Con as ever, it’s a ward that really should be safely conservative and was until 2014, but where Labour have worked and worked to the point of being favourites even with an awkward resignation early in term and when there’s an election in May anyway. The Tories absolutely must win this ward if they want to win the new MK Central seat at the General Election.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

"SCOTTISH BORDERS UA; Jedburgh & District (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
BATHGATE, John Lawrence (Conservative)
CLARK, James Douglas (Scottish Eco-Federalists)
DIXON, Phil (SNP)
GEORGESON, Ray (Liberal Democrat)
HUGHES, Kaymarie (Labour)
STRANG, Charles (Green)

2022: Con 1089, 675; SNP 675; Ind 529, 102; Grn 250; Alba 53
2017: Con 1094, 1026; SNP 755; Ind 600, 70; Grn 171; Lab 119
2012: Con 702, 413; SNP 759; Ind 549; LD 388; Borders 258; Lab 169
2007: Con 1011, 878; SNP 877; LD 716; Borders 316; Ind 87

John Bathgate (Con) was the top Independent candidate in 2022 and the Lib Dem candidate in 2012. Charles Strang (Grn) has stood here for the last 2 elections). James Clark stood for the Scottish Eco-Federalists in Galashiels & District ward in 2022 and Kay Hughes for Labour in Hawick & Denholm.

Current Council: Con 14; SNP 8; Ind 7; LD 3; Grn 1; 1 vacancy"

"Scottish Eco-Federalists" has been registered since 2021:


search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP12671

[lackeroftalent]

Jan 29, 2024 11:06:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

DERBYSHIRE DALES DC; Bakewell (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BUTCHER, Bob (Labour)
CADOGAN, Claire Lorraine Faithorn (Liberal Democrat)
CROSBY, Lesley Wendy (Reform UK)
ELNAUGH-LOVE, Rachel Elizabeth (Independent)
PELTELL, Nicola (Green)
WALSH, Richard Noel (Conservative)

2023: Con 1011, 581; Lab 526; Grn 307; LD 178, 166; Ind 175

Given the rather large vote gap, it is worth noting that it is the top-placed Conservative who has resigned. Nicola Peltell (Grn) and Rachel Elnaugh-Love (Ind) both stood here last year. Claire Cadogan (LD) stood in Chatsworth and Richard Walsh (Con) in Darley Dale.

I understand that Mark Wakeman (the resigning Conservative) is a popular and prominent individual who was pushed into standing and has now changed their mind. Certainly looks like the seat is vulnerable.

Rachel Elnaugh is quite a peculiar individual. Her wiki page is just a taste of various views and positions. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Elnaugh

[iang]

Jan 29, 2024 13:40:29 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Jan 29, 2024 11:06:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

DERBYSHIRE DALES DC; Bakewell (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BUTCHER, Bob (Labour)
CADOGAN, Claire Lorraine Faithorn (Liberal Democrat)
CROSBY, Lesley Wendy (Reform UK)
ELNAUGH-LOVE, Rachel Elizabeth (Independent)
PELTELL, Nicola (Green)
WALSH, Richard Noel (Conservative)

2023: Con 1011, 581; Lab 526; Grn 307; LD 178, 166; Ind 175

Given the rather large vote gap, it is worth noting that it is the top-placed Conservative who has resigned. Nicola Peltell (Grn) and Rachel Elnaugh-Love (Ind) both stood here last year. Claire Cadogan (LD) stood in Chatsworth and Richard Walsh (Con) in Darley Dale.

I understand that Mark Wakeman (the resigning Conservative) is a popular and prominent individual who was pushed into standing and has now changed their mind. Certainly looks like the seat is vulnerable.

Rachel Elnaugh is quite a peculiar individual. Her wiki page is just a taste of various views and positions. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Elnaugh

Is the Elnaugh-Love name actually her name, or as she wanted to stand for the "Love" Party (see Wiki), has she tacked it on to make up for the fact she didn't register the party?

[lackeroftalent]

Jan 29, 2024 16:18:42 GMT iang said:

Jan 29, 2024 13:40:29 GMT lackeroftalent said:

I understand that Mark Wakeman (the resigning Conservative) is a popular and prominent individual who was pushed into standing and has now changed their mind. Certainly looks like the seat is vulnerable.

Rachel Elnaugh is quite a peculiar individual. Her wiki page is just a taste of various views and positions. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Elnaugh

Is the Elnaugh-Love name actually her name, or as she wanted to stand for the "Love" Party (see Wiki), has she tacked it on to make up for the fact she didn't register the party?

My understanding is the latter - that her surname is Elnaugh and that the addition of Love is just something she has done at this and the previous election.

For reference see her colleague Julie Tasker-(Love)-Birks for Mansfield mayor 2023.  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Mansfield#2023

[YL]

Jan 29, 2024 13:40:29 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Rachel Elnaugh is quite a peculiar individual. Her wiki page is just a taste of various views and positions. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Elnaugh

If you wish to read some views of her from some people who live in the Derbyshire Dales (though not in Bakewell ward) then www.savecressbrookdale.com/faq might be of interest.

[iang]

Wow

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jan 29, 2024 16:36:38 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Jan 29, 2024 16:18:42 GMT iang said:

Is the Elnaugh-Love name actually her name, or as she wanted to stand for the "Love" Party (see Wiki), has she tacked it on to make up for the fact she didn't register the party?

My understanding is the latter - that her surname is Elnaugh and that the addition of Love is just something she has done at this and the previous election.

For reference see her colleague Julie Tasker-(Love)-Birks for Mansfield mayor 2023.  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Mansfield#2023

Fascinating.


*Pause*

I've no idea what's going on.

[greenman]

I am assuming that the emergence of so many right-wing candidates is going to make Romney Marsh a definite possibility for Labour, whereas a Liberal Democrat running in Norbury might make it easier for Labour or Green to win the seat off Conservative.

[John Chanin]

This week looks like being a car crash for the Conservatives.

[froome]

Jan 29, 2024 17:42:06 GMT YL said:

Jan 29, 2024 13:40:29 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Rachel Elnaugh is quite a peculiar individual. Her wiki page is just a taste of various views and positions. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Elnaugh

If you wish to read some views of her from some people who live in the Derbyshire Dales (though not in Bakewell ward) then www.savecressbrookdale.com/faq might be of interest.

That's an impressively put together FAQ.

How close to Bakewell is Cressbrook Dale? Are its residents aware of what is happening there?

Why does she stand in this particular ward? 175 votes last time suggests she may have a small amount of support there, unless they are all NOTA voters.

[andrewp]

Feb 18, 2024 18:38:40 GMT John Chanin said:

This week looks like being a car crash for the Conservatives.

More than half of their defences in a near 3 month period are this week. They’ve only defended 4 in total since Christmas, then 6 this week and then only 1 in total in the next three weeks.

[Pete Whitehead]

They do have the prospect of gaining the seat in Jedburgh.
I should have thought they're safe enough in Norbury. Farnham Common & Burnham Beeches looks a bit vulnerable on paper but I should have thought local Lib Dems will be focusing on Hazlemere for the reasons Rick mentioned. Bakewell could be held if no clear challenger emerges - (theoretically the same for Romney Marsh which looks fun, but I don't fancy them there).
I assume the Calne seat will be gained by the Lib Dems

[batman]

Labour should be fairly clearly the challengers in Bakewell having (highly uncharacteristically) come close to winning the second seat in the last local elections. I agree re Norbury which is clearly not similar to its namesake in London!

[greenman]

Maybe because they are local government seats, some Conservative seats are safer than others, but given the swings in Parliamentary by-elections I think that might be a tad overly optimistic. The issue with Norbury is what happens with a Liberal Democrat running as they saw their support increase from 23.6% in 2019 to 34.2% in 2023 in the dales as a whole, while the Conservatives dropped from 40.1% to 33%. Given that Labour dropped from 26.2% to 20.9% and Greens only increased from 5.3% to 6.1% and Independents from 3.7% to 5.5% it seems that the LD could lower the Conservative vote considerably, as in some seats Liberals jumped between 25% to 30%.

Conservatives dropped 31.2% in Bakewell and Bradwell, 28.8% in Hulland, 15.9% in Dovedale, Parwich & Brassignton, 15.6% Nobury, 15.6% and 15.4% in Hathersage, 14.8%, 11.7% & 9.4% in Darley Dale, 12% Chatsworth, 10.5 & 3.5% in Matlock West, 6.8% in Ashbourne North, 2.5% in Ashbourne South, 2.7% Wirksworth, Matlock East & Tansley 1.5%, 1% Tideswell and only went up in Doveridge & Sudbury 20.7%, 2.9% in Hartington & Taddington, 2.3% Wirksworth and 1.7% Ashbourne South.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 19, 2024 18:47:32 GMT greenman said:

Maybe because they are local government seats, some Conservative seats are safer than others, but given the swings in Parliamentary by-elections I think that might be a tad overly optimistic. The issue with Norbury is what happens with a Liberal Democrat running as they saw their support increase from 23.6% in 2019 to 34.2% in 2023 in the dales as a whole, while the Conservatives dropped from 40.1% to 33%. Given that Labour dropped from 26.2% to 20.9% and Greens only increased from 5.3% to 6.1% and Independents from 3.7% to 5.5% it seems that the LD could lower the Conservative vote considerably, as in some seats Liberals jumped between 25% to 30%.

Conservatives dropped 31.2% in Bakewell and Bradwell, 28.8% in Hulland, 15.9% in Dovedale, Parwich & Brassignton, 15.6% Nobury, 15.6% and 15.4% in Hathersage, 14.8%, 11.7% & 9.4% in Darley Dale, 12% Chatsworth, 10.5 & 3.5% in Matlock West, 6.8% in Ashbourne North, 2.5% in Ashbourne South, 2.7% Wirksworth, Matlock East & Tansley 1.5%, 1% Tideswell and only went up in Doveridge & Sudbury 20.7%, 2.9% in Hartington & Taddington, 2.3% Wirksworth and 1.7% Ashbourne South.

The swings in parliamentary by-elections are from the 2019 general election, when the Conservatives did well - the swing in these by-elections will be compared to 2023, when they didn't (as your rather detailed commentary shows). The very fact that the Conservatives dropped more than 15% in Norbury yet still managed over two-thirds of the vote rather tells its own story. It's certainly possible that an additional candidate in the form of the Lib Dems will lower their share further, but I hardly see how this helps Labour or the Greens as your earlier post suggests. If the Lib Dems took 30% off the Conservatives, the Conservatives would still win. If they took more than that, they would win. There doesn't seem to be any basis for thinking that Labour or the Greens are going to somehow come through the middle

[East Anglian Lefty]

I would take the view that whilst everything Pete has said is eminently sensible, local by-elections involve such small electorates that the chances of bizarre things happening are higher than they would be in a larger contest.

[phil156]

Bit of a two-way split this week regarding the counts

Buckinghamshire - Both Counts on Thursday
Derbyshire - Both counts on Friday
Folkestone & Hythe - Friday
Milton Keynes - Friday
Scottish Borders - Friday
Wiltshire - Thursday

[aidypiez]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-eight-local-by-elections-of-22nd-february-2024-d2e137b57292

Mr Teale's handiwork for this week.