Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 13, 2024 9:54:27 GMT
It's pretty funny that in Rochdale of all places nobody is considering the remotest chance of a Lib Dem win. I wonder how much postal voting has taken place. There will still be a fair few who will vote for Ali who won't a) know or b) care about his comments. And depressingly also a number who agree with them... |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 13, 2024 9:59:20 GMT
It's pretty funny that in Rochdale of all places nobody is considering the remotest chance of a Lib Dem win. I wonder how much postal voting has taken place. There will still be a fair few who will vote for Ali who won't a) know or b) care about his comments. Postals haven‘t gone out yet, I understand but could be wrong that they go out this Thursday. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2024 10:56:10 GMT
Question - If the now expelled Labour candidate win is it "Ind gain from Lab" or Lab hold? An outrage against democracy and decency and Britishness is what it would be. Do we all have to pretend that we are surprised by this and did not believe him to be such a person? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2024 11:03:01 GMT
A cynic might say that Labour voters will vote for George Galloway, and that Conservative and Lib Dem voters will vote Labour in order to stop Galloway from winning. A pragmatist might say that Labour voters will vote Labour anyway because they have no reason to switch to another party. The sensible vote in this by-election is for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. Shall we have a poll as to where we would place our own votes? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2024 11:09:57 GMT
What are the odds now on this being a Conservative gain? I can see that it could easily turn out to split many ways, with Ali, Galloway, Danschuk and both the Tories and Lib Dems all in with an outside chance, though realistically I would think only Ali, Galloway and the Tories could win. If it was a Conservative gain, would Rishi be tempted to suddenly call the general election? In the given demographics of a Rochdale I cannot see where that implied Conservative vote could possibly come from. It is not possible for them to get in sight of winning or probably even third place. A Galloway win looks quite possible as does a Labour hold. I don't see any other candidate getting near to winning. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 13, 2024 11:23:05 GMT
It's pretty funny that in Rochdale of all places nobody is considering the remotest chance of a Lib Dem win. I wonder how much postal voting has taken place. There will still be a fair few who will vote for Ali who won't a) know or b) care about his comments. Or agree with them |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Feb 13, 2024 11:24:47 GMT
As I said when the Gaza conflict re-ignited several months ago now, this was going to be terrible news for Labour. It's forced Starmer into taking a stance on the issue - either stance was going to cause conflict and so it's turned out. Something he wouldn't of needed to do if the area had remained relatively calm. It'll certainly hurt him electorally but perhaps not fatally when it comes to becoming the next PM... It's been the making of him, and I will vote Labour because he's proved he's the real deal. Labour will gain centrists like me and lose anti-semites, salafists, Marxists and other intellectual sewage. Sane people will consider that a positive result and it will make the next government better for the UK. Some will disagree, but they will taste only the bitterness of defeat, like they always do in this great country... |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Feb 13, 2024 11:25:17 GMT
YouGov's recent MRP had Labour on 51% in Rochdale to 19% for the Conservatives, 11% for Reform UK, 8% for Lib Dems and 8% for Greens.
At the 2021 census, the Muslim population of Rochdale constituency was 30.5%. This compares to 23.1% in Batley & Spen where George Galloway won 21.9% of the vote in a by-election held in 2021 through discontent against Labour among local Muslims.
Putting this information together, I'll go out on a limb and predict a win for George Galloway with around 29% of the vote to 22% for Labour.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Feb 13, 2024 11:28:00 GMT
The Daily Mail is saying that Labour supporters are going to vote for Reform in order to stop Galloway from winning 🤭
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Feb 13, 2024 11:29:16 GMT
A cynic might say that Labour voters will vote for George Galloway, and that Conservative and Lib Dem voters will vote Labour in order to stop Galloway from winning. A pragmatist might say that Labour voters will vote Labour anyway because they have no reason to switch to another party. The sensible vote in this by-election is for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. The sensible vote in this by-election is for the Conservative Party. Unfortunately there are not enough sensible people in Rochdale. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Feb 13, 2024 11:33:31 GMT
The sensible vote in this by-election is for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. The sensible vote in this by-election is for the Conservative Party. Unfortunately there are not enough sensible people in Rochdale. In terms of national politics that would not be sensible from the perspective of a non- Tory. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 13, 2024 11:35:29 GMT
The Daily Mail is saying that Labour supporters are going to vote for Reform in order to stop Galloway from winning 🤭 "Vote for the sex pest to defeat our discredited councillor!" |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2024 11:36:44 GMT
What are the odds now on this being a Conservative gain? I can see that it could easily turn out to split many ways, with Ali, Galloway, Danschuk and both the Tories and Lib Dems all in with an outside chance, though realistically I would think only Ali, Galloway and the Tories could win. If it was a Conservative gain, would Rishi be tempted to suddenly call the general election? In the given demographics of a Rochdale I cannot see where that implied Conservative vote could possibly come from. It is not possible for them to get in sight of winning or probably even third place. A Galloway win looks quite possible as does a Labour hold. I don't see any other candidate getting near to winning. there is potential for the Tories in the rural minority but it is probably too small a minority to allow them to win |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Feb 13, 2024 11:52:13 GMT
In the given demographics of a Rochdale I cannot see where that implied Conservative vote could possibly come from. It is not possible for them to get in sight of winning or probably even third place. A Galloway win looks quite possible as does a Labour hold. I don't see any other candidate getting near to winning. there is potential for the Tories in the rural minority but it is probably too small a minority to allow them to win Though it was a Tory seat prior to the 1958 by election! |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Feb 13, 2024 11:54:39 GMT
I am not entirely clear as to who has authority to suspend a selected candidate. I am sure it would not be Starmer. Possibly the General Secretary or the NEC - but there has not been time for a meeting of the latter. If due process has not been followed , Ali and his supporters could seek an Injunction.
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Post by philvn on Feb 13, 2024 12:02:18 GMT
The sensible vote in this by-election is for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. Shall we have a poll as to where we would place our own votes? Good question that. Not a bloody clue what I would do! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 13, 2024 12:07:42 GMT
Shall we have a poll as to where we would place our own votes? Good question that. Not a bloody clue what I would do!
Thread and poll set up, I've assumed voting for one of the candidates.
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,438
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Post by hengog on Feb 13, 2024 12:07:50 GMT
As I said when the Gaza conflict re-ignited several months ago now, this was going to be terrible news for Labour. It's forced Starmer into taking a stance on the issue - either stance was going to cause conflict and so it's turned out. Something he wouldn't of needed to do if the area had remained relatively calm. It'll certainly hurt him electorally but perhaps not fatally when it comes to becoming the next PM... It's been the making of him, and I will vote Labour because he's proved he's the real deal. Labour will gain centrists like me and lose anti-semites, salafists, Marxists and other intellectual sewage. Sane people will consider that a positive result and it will make the next government better for the UK. Some will disagree, but they will taste only the bitterness of defeat, like they always do in this great country... There’s a lot of sense in this and I’m tempted. But we do need to see a couple of years of Starmer in power before we can be sure. There are differing ways of interpreting his rather ‘ flexible’ principles ( as he has moved from solid support for Corbyn to now). If there were a way of voting for a small but working majority for Labour I would do so! Where I’m situated the sensible thing (to try to achieve that) is probably to vote Conservative. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 13, 2024 12:12:12 GMT
As I said when the Gaza conflict re-ignited several months ago now, this was going to be terrible news for Labour. It's forced Starmer into taking a stance on the issue - either stance was going to cause conflict and so it's turned out. Something he wouldn't of needed to do if the area had remained relatively calm. It'll certainly hurt him electorally but perhaps not fatally when it comes to becoming the next PM... It's been the making of him, and I will vote Labour because he's proved he's the real deal. Labour will gain centrists like me and lose anti-semites, salafists, Marxists and other intellectual sewage. Sane people will consider that a positive result and it will make the next government better for the UK. Some will disagree, but they will taste only the bitterness of defeat, like they always do in this great country... welcome onboard comrade |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2024 12:22:44 GMT
there is potential for the Tories in the rural minority but it is probably too small a minority to allow them to win Though it was a Tory seat prior to the 1958 by election! 66-years ago man! In a completely different world and a completely different demographics pre mass immigration. |
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