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Post by Yaffles on Jan 10, 2024 12:35:13 GMT
2005 saw Labour witha lead across GB of 3%. If Labour can manage a national lead of 6% or 7% this year, the seat becomes a realistic target. That doesn't necessarily follow - a lot has changed in 20 years both in terms of the demographics of some areas and the way some demographics vote (or don't). Yes indeed there are plenty of examples of seats won by Labour in 19972001 that are now totally out of reach to them, Castle Point and Wyre Forest spring to mind. |
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Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 12:38:22 GMT
and of course conversely there were seats lost by Labour in 1997 which were won not only in 2017 but also in 2019.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jan 10, 2024 12:50:15 GMT
That doesn't necessarily follow - a lot has changed in 20 years both in terms of the demographics of some areas and the way some demographics vote (or don't). Yes indeed there are plenty of examples of seats won by Labour in 19972001 that are now totally out of reach to them, Castle Point and Wyre Forest spring to mind. Are they any more out of reach than would have appeared to be the case in 1997 based on the 1992 results? |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2024 12:56:17 GMT
Yes indeed there are plenty of examples of seats won by Labour in 19972001 that are now totally out of reach to them, Castle Point and Wyre Forest spring to mind. Are they any more out of reach than would have appeared to be the case in 1997 based on the 1992 results? Yes they are. Wyre Forest 1992 majority was 17%, Castle Point 32%. Now Wyre Forest has a 42% majority and Castle Point 56%. If there were to be exactly the same swing in Castle Point in 2024 as there was in 1997, the Tories would hold by 10,000. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 10, 2024 13:07:01 GMT
The 2023 local election results show Labour being very Third in North East Somerset and Hanham, yes, there was I assume a nomination cock up in one ward. There's Labour bits of Keynsham and some strength in the Kingswood ward but losing Midsomer Norton and Radstock is a blow because all it leaves outside of Keynsham is Paulton which is small and has shit turnout. But there were claims - based on local election results - in 2019 that the LDs were the main challengers to JRM. That was not borne out by the actual result - and is much less likely to be true now given the underlying polling shifts. How would the new seat have voted in 2005 - when the LDs nationally were far stronger than appears the case today?
There was a somewhat dubious poll taken in Rees Mogg's seat during the last GE campaign, which will have given many the impression the LibDems were his main challengers. So yes - whilst this redrawn seat is without doubt a "stretch" Labour target, its maybe not *quite* as much so as the 2019 figures indicate. |
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Post by southernliberal on Jan 10, 2024 17:18:29 GMT
According to Politico Playbook, the by-election writs are expected to be moved tomorrow for both this seat and Wellingborough.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jan 10, 2024 18:26:04 GMT
According to Politico Playbook, the by-election writs are expected to be moved tomorrow for both this seat and Wellingborough. If confirmed, a May election appears unlikely. |
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Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 20:55:57 GMT
it's already unlikely. Look where they are in the polls & how little time there would be until dissolution in the event of a May election. Turkeys don't vote for an early Christmas (the old ones are the best).
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 10, 2024 21:03:23 GMT
it's already unlikely. Look where they are in the polls & how little time there would be until dissolution in the event of a May election. Turkeys don't vote for an early Christmas (the old ones are the best). Wouldn't old turkeys be rather tough? |
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Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 21:40:08 GMT
yes, it's part of their strategy to avoid slaughter. Wouldn't it be great if one of the non-Labour candidates for Hammersmith & Chiswick were called Lamb
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 11, 2024 6:28:08 GMT
According to Politico Playbook, the by-election writs are expected to be moved tomorrow for both this seat and Wellingborough. If confirmed, a May election appears unlikely. Unless that rumour in Politico turns out to be that the GE is announced today... |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 11, 2024 6:32:26 GMT
If confirmed, a May election appears unlikely. Unless that rumour in Politico turns out to be that the GE is announced today... Link to article please? |
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 11, 2024 7:26:34 GMT
According to Politico Playbook, the by-election writs are expected to be moved tomorrow for both this seat and Wellingborough. If confirmed, a May election appears unlikely. If anything, calling these by-elections may make a May election marginally more likely. There is a potential strategy for the Tories that they hold these and if they get better than expected results and hold these they try to bounce off them, calling an election in May (avoiding the Blackpool South by-election in the process) If they do poorly, well they already have the cover of Sunak's statement about the autumn, so they just try to move on as quickly as possible. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jan 11, 2024 8:39:17 GMT
If confirmed, a May election appears unlikely. If anything, calling these by-elections may make a May election marginally more likely. There is a potential strategy for the Tories that they hold these and if they get better than expected results and hold these they try to bounce off them, calling an election in May (avoiding the Blackpool South by-election in the process) If they do poorly, well they already have the cover of Sunak's statement about the autumn, so they just try to move on as quickly as possible. Both seats are likely Labour gains. Kingswood was Labour-held 1992 - 2010. Wellingborough has elected Labour MPs 8 times since 1945. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 11, 2024 9:39:26 GMT
There's always the possibility of two different results - whilst the circumstances of the by-election are worse for the Tories in Wellingborough, the swing required is a fair bit higher than in Kingswood. I don't think that holding Wellingborough but not Kingswood would objectively be a good result, but I strongly suspect it would be spun as a famous victory.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 11, 2024 9:46:16 GMT
If anything, calling these by-elections may make a May election marginally more likely. There is a potential strategy for the Tories that they hold these and if they get better than expected results and hold these they try to bounce off them, calling an election in May (avoiding the Blackpool South by-election in the process) If they do poorly, well they already have the cover of Sunak's statement about the autumn, so they just try to move on as quickly as possible. Both seats are likely Labour gains. Kingswood was Labour-held 1992 - 2010. Wellingborough has elected Labour MPs 8 times since 1945. Both seats are certain Labour gains at BE’s IMO. The Kingswood that Labour held was on better boundaries for Labour as it included more of Bristol and Wellingborough has trended away from Labour to the point that I doubt Labour could win it at a general election. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 11, 2024 10:01:21 GMT
Both writs have now been moved.
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Post by batman on Jan 11, 2024 10:15:51 GMT
Logically if Labour can win Mid Beds they should be able to win Wellingborough, which is actually not far from Mid Beds at all, without really undue difficulty. However elections are not invariably logical. Voters probably won't have quite as low an opinion of the outgoing MP in Wellingborough, who wanted to continue representing the seat, as they did of the MP for Mid Beds who refused to do any work & yet wouldn't resign for months. But Wellingborough has a much larger "natural" Labour vote than Mid Beds, even if it is a much lower base than it used to be.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 11, 2024 11:52:45 GMT
If anything, calling these by-elections may make a May election marginally more likely. There is a potential strategy for the Tories that they hold these and if they get better than expected results and hold these they try to bounce off them, calling an election in May (avoiding the Blackpool South by-election in the process) If they do poorly, well they already have the cover of Sunak's statement about the autumn, so they just try to move on as quickly as possible. Both seats are likely Labour gains. Kingswood was Labour-held 1992 - 2010. Wellingborough has elected Labour MPs 8 times since 1945. I didn't say it was a good strategy - but then if they had a good strategy they probably wouldn't be 15 points behind in the polls... |
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Post by Yaffles on Jan 11, 2024 11:59:25 GMT
Both seats are likely Labour gains. Kingswood was Labour-held 1992 - 2010. Wellingborough has elected Labour MPs 8 times since 1945. I didn't say it was a good strategy - but then if they had a good strategy they probably wouldn't be 15 points behind in the polls... Kingswood feels like a solid Labour win to me, less so Wellingborough, I appreciate this is not a controversial view. So IF the result is one big win for Labour and one small win/loss then I suspect it won't help force Rishi's hand or change the narrative much. |
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