|
|
Post by John Chanin on Jan 9, 2024 19:21:28 GMT
Surely Labour have missed a trick by not running their candidate for NE Somerset in this by-election. I get that Egan is an experienced politician who isn't going to mess up, and that he will have to resign as Lewisham mayor anyway once the General Election is called, but even so. Although according to owainsutton's spreadsheet Labour don't have a candidate in place for NE Somerset. Perhaps this would have been a good opportunity to find one. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Jan 9, 2024 19:41:57 GMT
I think you mean the 15th. The timetable is 21 to 27 working days, so in a period where there are no public holidays the deadline to issue the writ for a by-election on a particular Thursday is the Wednesday four weeks earlier. Hence tomorrow is the deadline for 8 February, and Wednesday next week is the deadline for the 15th, etc. I understood it to be 25 working days - as in the period between Dissolution and Polling Day. Perhaps a by election has a slightly different timetable. Indeed it is slightly different for by-elections: see commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06609/ |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Jan 9, 2024 19:46:04 GMT
Surely Labour have missed a trick by not running their candidate for NE Somerset in this by-election. I get that Egan is an experienced politician who isn't going to mess up, and that he will have to resign as Lewisham mayor anyway once the General Election is called, but even so. Although according to owainsutton's spreadsheet Labour don't have a candidate in place for NE Somerset. Perhaps this would have been a good opportunity to find one. My guess is that it's some combination of: - They are still being quite cautious about targeting longshot seats like NE Somerset & Hanham. - They wanted to get a candidate in place for the by-election quickly and Egan was basically ready to go. - More speculatively, IIRC there are suggestions that Dan Norris might stand in NE Somerset & Hanham and if that's true he would have the name recognition anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Jan 9, 2024 20:04:38 GMT
Surely Labour have missed a trick by not running their candidate for NE Somerset in this by-election. I get that Egan is an experienced politician who isn't going to mess up, and that he will have to resign as Lewisham mayor anyway once the General Election is called, but even so. Although according to owainsutton 's spreadsheet Labour don't have a candidate in place for NE Somerset. Perhaps this would have been a good opportunity to find one. This sounds like an exercise for students of "UK Electoral Law, 2014-2028". (The end date is a hopeful attempt.) |
|
r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,173
Member is Online
|
Post by r34t on Jan 9, 2024 20:07:22 GMT
Surely Labour have missed a trick by not running their candidate for NE Somerset in this by-election. I get that Egan is an experienced politician who isn't going to mess up, and that he will have to resign as Lewisham mayor anyway once the General Election is called, but even so. Although according to owainsutton 's spreadsheet Labour don't have a candidate in place for NE Somerset. Perhaps this would have been a good opportunity to find one. My guess is that it's some combination of: - They are still being quite cautious about targeting longshot seats like NE Somerset & Hanham. - They wanted to get a candidate in place for the by-election quickly and Egan was basically ready to go. - More speculatively, IIRC there are suggestions that Dan Norris might stand in NE Somerset & Hanham and if that's true he would have the name recognition anyway. Dan Norris announced today that he will be going for the NESH selection, I guess the discussions about Kingswood candidate included keeping NESH open for him. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Jan 9, 2024 20:08:25 GMT
I have looked again and see that Returning Officers have more discretion re- Polling Day in a by election.. As of today the option of 8th February would still exist - though 15th February could be chosen |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,029
Member is Online
|
Post by nyx on Jan 9, 2024 20:10:59 GMT
Surely Labour have missed a trick by not running their candidate for NE Somerset in this by-election. I get that Egan is an experienced politician who isn't going to mess up, and that he will have to resign as Lewisham mayor anyway once the General Election is called, but even so. Although according to owainsutton 's spreadsheet Labour don't have a candidate in place for NE Somerset. Perhaps this would have been a good opportunity to find one. Dan Norris, former Wansdyke MP and Mayor of the West of England, is apparently aiming to get the NE Somerset+Hanham selection |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Jan 9, 2024 20:11:24 GMT
Surely Labour have missed a trick by not running their candidate for NE Somerset in this by-election. I get that Egan is an experienced politician who isn't going to mess up, and that he will have to resign as Lewisham mayor anyway once the General Election is called, but even so. Although according to owainsutton 's spreadsheet Labour don't have a candidate in place for NE Somerset. Perhaps this would have been a good opportunity to find one. My guess is that it's some combination of: - They are still being quite cautious about targeting longshot seats like NE Somerset & Hanham. - They wanted to get a candidate in place for the by-election quickly and Egan was basically ready to go. - More speculatively, IIRC there are suggestions that Dan Norris might stand in NE Somerset & Hanham and if that's true he would have the name recognition anyway. Would it be such a longshot given that Wansdyke was Labour-held until 2010?Also JRM's majority was only circa 5000 in 2010. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Jan 9, 2024 22:15:00 GMT
My guess is that it's some combination of: - They are still being quite cautious about targeting longshot seats like NE Somerset & Hanham. - They wanted to get a candidate in place for the by-election quickly and Egan was basically ready to go. - More speculatively, IIRC there are suggestions that Dan Norris might stand in NE Somerset & Hanham and if that's true he would have the name recognition anyway. Would it be such a longshot given that Wansdyke was Labour-held until 2010?Also JRM's majority was only circa 5000 in 2010. Both Ben Walker and Pete Whitehead 's notional calculations show an increased Tory majority because of the boundary changes and a swing needed for a Labour gain of 15% to 17%. So it's not impossible but I'm happy with calling it a longshot. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 9, 2024 22:18:45 GMT
My guess is that it's some combination of: - They are still being quite cautious about targeting longshot seats like NE Somerset & Hanham. - They wanted to get a candidate in place for the by-election quickly and Egan was basically ready to go. - More speculatively, IIRC there are suggestions that Dan Norris might stand in NE Somerset & Hanham and if that's true he would have the name recognition anyway. Would it be such a longshot given that Wansdyke was Labour-held until 2010?Also JRM's majority was only circa 5000 in 2010. The boundary changes aren't advantageous to Labour - compared to NE Somerset, the seat loses Midsomer Norton and Radstock, which aren't as good for us as they used to be but are certainly stronger territory than the constituency as a whole and gains the Toriest bits of Kingswood. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jan 9, 2024 22:25:39 GMT
The 2023 local election results show Labour being very Third in North East Somerset and Hanham, yes, there was I assume a nomination cock up in one ward. There's Labour bits of Keynsham and some strength in the Kingswood ward but losing Midsomer Norton and Radstock is a blow because all it leaves outside of Keynsham is Paulton which is small and has shit turnout.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368 
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Jan 9, 2024 22:47:04 GMT
17% is definitely longshot even with a well-known Labour candidate.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Jan 9, 2024 23:16:35 GMT
The 2023 local election results show Labour being very Third in North East Somerset and Hanham, yes, there was I assume a nomination cock up in one ward. There's Labour bits of Keynsham and some strength in the Kingswood ward but losing Midsomer Norton and Radstock is a blow because all it leaves outside of Keynsham is Paulton which is small and has shit turnout. But there were claims - based on local election results - in 2019 that the LDs were the main challengers to JRM. That was not borne out by the actual result - and is much less likely to be true now given the underlying polling shifts.
How would the new seat have voted in 2005 - when the LDs nationally were far stronger than appears the case today?
|
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Jan 10, 2024 6:32:36 GMT
The 2023 local election results show Labour being very Third in North East Somerset and Hanham, yes, there was I assume a nomination cock up in one ward. There's Labour bits of Keynsham and some strength in the Kingswood ward but losing Midsomer Norton and Radstock is a blow because all it leaves outside of Keynsham is Paulton which is small and has shit turnout. But there were claims - based on local election results - in 2019 that the LDs were the main challengers to JRM.
Wasn't this the bar chart where the small-print revealed it was a survey, where the question was "If only the Conservatives or Lib Dems stood any chance of winning..."? |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Jan 10, 2024 7:38:48 GMT
The 2023 local election results show Labour being very Third in North East Somerset and Hanham, yes, there was I assume a nomination cock up in one ward. There's Labour bits of Keynsham and some strength in the Kingswood ward but losing Midsomer Norton and Radstock is a blow because all it leaves outside of Keynsham is Paulton which is small and has shit turnout. But there were claims - based on local election results - in 2019 that the LDs were the main challengers to JRM. That was not borne out by the actual result - and is much less likely to be true now given the underlying polling shifts.
How would the new seat have voted in 2005 - when the LDs nationally were far stronger than appears the case today?
If North East Somerset & Hanham had existed back in 2005 it would have been a narrow Conservative gain from Labour that year. Note that the aforementioned new seat is very similar to the old Wansdyke seat, minus Midsomer Norton and Radstock. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 7:51:28 GMT
.......which from Labour's point of view is a rather important element to be without, especially Radstock.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Jan 10, 2024 9:58:21 GMT
But there were claims - based on local election results - in 2019 that the LDs were the main challengers to JRM. That was not borne out by the actual result - and is much less likely to be true now given the underlying polling shifts.
How would the new seat have voted in 2005 - when the LDs nationally were far stronger than appears the case today?
If North East Somerset & Hanham had existed back in 2005 it would have been a narrow Conservative gain from Labour that year. Note that the aforementioned new seat is very similar to the old Wansdyke seat, minus Midsomer Norton and Radstock. 2005 saw Labour witha lead across GB of 3%. If Labour can manage a national lead of 6% or 7% this year, the seat becomes a realistic target. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Jan 10, 2024 10:45:24 GMT
If North East Somerset & Hanham had existed back in 2005 it would have been a narrow Conservative gain from Labour that year. Note that the aforementioned new seat is very similar to the old Wansdyke seat, minus Midsomer Norton and Radstock. 2005 saw Labour witha lead across GB of 3%. If Labour can manage a national lead of 6% or 7% this year, the seat becomes a realistic target. That doesn't necessarily follow - a lot has changed in 20 years both in terms of the demographics of some areas and the way some demographics vote (or don't). |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Jan 10, 2024 10:48:29 GMT
2005 saw Labour witha lead across GB of 3%. If Labour can manage a national lead of 6% or 7% this year, the seat becomes a realistic target. That doesn't necessarily follow - a lot has changed in 20 years both in terms of the demographics of some areas and the way some demographics vote (or don't). The Conservatives were actually ahead of Labour in terms of vote share in England in 2005, though I have to admit that it didn’t feel anything like that on the ground at the time. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 12:03:33 GMT
If North East Somerset & Hanham had existed back in 2005 it would have been a narrow Conservative gain from Labour that year. Note that the aforementioned new seat is very similar to the old Wansdyke seat, minus Midsomer Norton and Radstock. 2005 saw Labour witha lead across GB of 3%. If Labour can manage a national lead of 6% or 7% this year, the seat becomes a realistic target. I think it would have to be quite a bit more than that. A 7% Labour lead is a swing of about 9.25%. That's only just over half what is needed to win. Of course there will be variations in swing, but I don't think a Labour lead of as little as 7% would be enough to gain that particular seat, even with the advantage of Dan Norris as the candidate. |
|
