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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2024 9:30:55 GMT
I know it's only 54 votes but that 9% for Reform UK is one of their best performances isn't it? But when they are polling 9-10% nationally, surely they should be getting way above that average in Clacton if it's genuine? The actual evidence for Reform UK taking serious Tory votes in actual elections remains a lot worse than the polls on this. Your last sentence isn't wrong, but in this case you had 10 candidates including 5 Independents and a UKIP candidate, with one of the Independents obviously having a profile locally. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 12, 2024 9:47:38 GMT
I think a lot of the candidates had profiles locally, but not always positive ones. It is in any case harder to draw a broader conclusion but that Clacton politics is particularly confusing right now.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jan 12, 2024 9:54:59 GMT
Yes looking at the area Littlemoor looks like a Labour village with Preston and Overcombe significantly more upmarket. Election Calculus have the Tories only just carrying this ward based on current polling! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 12, 2024 10:30:08 GMT
What a waste of time surely the voters must have known wonder what the figures are and turnout too Turns out that the circumstances ( ‘ those silly petty bureaucratic rules’ ) probably got him sympathy and actually helped him. That may well be the case, but effectively being rewarded for incompetence is rarely a good look. And it doesn't explain what on earth happened to the Labour vote? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 12, 2024 10:57:37 GMT
Turns out that the circumstances ( ‘ those silly petty bureaucratic rules’ ) probably got him sympathy and actually helped him. That may well be the case, but effectively being rewarded for incompetence is rarely a good look. And it doesn't explain what on earth happened to the Labour vote? Presumably there was a strong tactical squeeze from the LDs, particularly as the latter is the principal opposition on Dorset Council? Possibly exacerbated by limited campaigning around Christmas? Certainly doesn't say anything good about the health of the local party. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 12, 2024 11:32:30 GMT
Turnout in Hove is 21.8%. 1609 votes cast
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Post by aidypiez on Jan 12, 2024 12:25:43 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 12, 2024 12:49:10 GMT
Turns out that the circumstances ( ‘ those silly petty bureaucratic rules’ ) probably got him sympathy and actually helped him. That may well be the case, but effectively being rewarded for incompetence is rarely a good look. And it doesn't explain what on earth happened to the Labour vote? Were Labour blamed for making a fuss about eligibility? |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 12, 2024 12:49:45 GMT
South Portslade
Lab 54.6% (-6)
Con 15.4% (+2.9)
LD 11.6% (+3)
Green 9.3% (-2)
TUSC 3.3% (new)
DemLIb 3.1% (new)
Ind 2.7% ( new)
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Post by andrewp on Jan 12, 2024 13:05:09 GMT
An update on local by elections this municipal year, following the first contests of 2024
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 11th January 2024 there have now been 121 ordinary by elections for 123 seats since May 4th 2023
The Conservatives have defended 33- Held 12 and lost 21: 5 to the Greens, 11 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 36%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 43- Held 32 and lost 11: 3 to the Conservatives, 5 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 74%) and have gained 8
Lib Dems have defended 21- Held 19 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 90%) and have gained 17
Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8
There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 8
Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems
Overall net changes
Con -15
Lab -3
LD +15
Green +4
Ind + 5
SNP -4
Res/ local groups -1
Vectis -1
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 5,735
Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Jan 12, 2024 13:27:12 GMT
At what point does it become "official" that there is (or is not?) a vacancy in Littlemoor & Preston?
EDIT: of course the answer is in some sense "once a notice of vacancy has been published", but you know what I mean.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 12, 2024 13:37:56 GMT
At what point does it become "official" that there is (or is not?) a vacancy in Littlemoor & Preston? EDIT: of course the answer is in some sense "once a notice of vacancy has been published", but you know what I mean.
Peter Dickenson could resign his seat, or he could just do nothing and decline to sign the declaration of acceptance of office. If he does not sign the declaration of acceptance of office, his seat will be vacated after two months - Local Government Act 1972 s. 83. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Member is Online
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Post by carolus on Jan 12, 2024 14:02:12 GMT
At what point does it become "official" that there is (or is not?) a vacancy in Littlemoor & Preston? EDIT: of course the answer is in some sense "once a notice of vacancy has been published", but you know what I mean.
Peter Dickenson could resign his seat, or he could just do nothing and decline to sign the declaration of acceptance of office. If he does not sign the declaration of acceptance of office, his seat will be vacated after two months - Local Government Act 1972 s. 83. Thanks David, I suppose in any event there won't be a byelection. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 12, 2024 17:45:39 GMT
What a waste of time surely the voters must have known wonder what the figures are and turnout too Turns out that the circumstances ( ‘ those silly petty bureaucratic rules’ ) probably got him sympathy and actually helped him. Voters for other parties aware of the circumstances more likely to not bother voting, too, assuming that it'll all be moot. Perhaps. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 15, 2024 9:51:55 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +83
Con +25
Grn +5
Lab -4
Con positive! and second! But as that's all down to Dorset, it's all a bit hypothetical really, for the moment.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 15, 2024 10:07:34 GMT
Had assumed a worse Labour figure
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 15, 2024 10:16:00 GMT
Had assumed a worse Labour figure So had I, considering they lost a seat and went down in every single contest this week... |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 15, 2024 10:19:49 GMT
Holding your own seats - and comfortably - seems to get you quite a few points in this system even if your share drops a bit.
Which does sort of make sense when you consider there is often increased competition in by-elections.
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Post by batman on Jan 15, 2024 10:30:28 GMT
Yes my perception of this week from a Labour supporter's point of view was a good deal worse than -4. It still is in fact.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 15, 2024 12:59:44 GMT
If it is correct, as reported, that the LibDem candidate in Salford was local and Labour's not then that is maybe enough to explain that one (the absence of a Tory candidate will have helped them too) There was always a good chance of a new winner emerging from the chaos that is Tendring (and the Tory share was down almost as much as Labour's) Portslade was, as already noted, a pretty routine Labour hold. So that leaves the still frankly bizarre and baffling Dorset result as the major downer on the week.
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