Prediction Competition - December

[kevinf]

Bromley
Lab 33, Con 32, LD 20, Green 15
Denbighshire
Lab 64, Con 24, Ind 12
Hertfordshire
LD 50, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 8
North Norfolk
LD 45, Con 35, Green 12, Lab 8
St Albans
LD 45, Con 30, Green 15, Lab 10

Also to note, JohnL has posted December predictions already, in the November thread.

[Tony Otim]

Bromley: Con 38.4; Lab 34.0; LD 16.1; Grn 11.6
Denbighshire: Lab 63.7; Thomas 21.4; Con 14.9
Hertfordshire: LD 52.4; Con 33.1; Lab 7.9; Grn 6.5
North Norfolk: LD 45.9; Con 41.9; Grn 7.3; Lab 4.9
St Albans: LD 46.0; Con 38.7; Grn 8.4; Lab 6.9

[johnloony]

Yelmorb: Con 38 Lab 34 LD 18 Grn 10
Denbigh: Lab 68 Con 19 Ind 17
Hertfordshire: Con 44 LD 29 Lab 15 Grn 12
North Norfolk: LD 62 Con 27 Lab 6 Grn 5
Stalbans: LD 58 Con 23 Grn 13 Lab 6

Now that I have read the previews and the ward profiles, I am changing my prediction for Hertfordshire:

Hertfordshire: Con 34 LD 39 Lab 15 Grn 12

Unless it's too late to change it, in which case I'm not (where are the rules of the competition, by the way? I never remember what the deadline is)

[Richard Cromwell]

I will have to sit this week out again, unfortunately.

[batman]

BROMLEY, Hayes & Coney Hall : C 35 Lab 28 Green 22 LD 15

DENBIGHSHIRE, Rhyl SW : Lab 66 C 21 Ind 13

HERTFORDSHIRE, Harpenden Rural : LD 44 C 41 Lab 9 Green 6

N.NORFOLK, Briston : LD 62 C 27 Green 7 Lab 4

ST ALBANS, Sandridge & Wheathampstead : LD 49 C 35 Green 10 Lab 6

[greenman]

St Albans, Sandridge & Wheathampsted LD 48.8%/Con 38.5/Green 6.7%/Labour 6%
Denbighshire, Rhyl South West Labour 57.5%/Con 28.2%/Ind 14.3%
Bromley Hayes & Coney Hall Con 44.9%/Labour 21%/Green 20%/LD 14.1%
North Norfolk, Briston LD 51.1/Con 36.3%/Labour 7.8%/Green 7%
Hertfordshire, Harpenden Rural Con 44.6%/LD 39%/Labour 9%/Green 7.4%

[robbienicoll]

With thanks to kevinf for setting the thread up. There are currently 14 by-elections including a double election to be held during December.

- 5 by-elections on 7 December
- 6 including the double on 14 December
- 3 on 21 December

8 by-elections including the double are for district councils, all last contested in May
3 are for county councils, all last contested in 2021
1 is for a Welsh authority last contested in 2022
1 is for a London Borough Council last contested in 2022
1 is for a unitary authority last contested in 2021

Conservatives defend 7 seats including both of those in the double, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 5 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 7 seats, all following a resignation
Labour defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 15 candidates for the Conservatives, 14 Labour and Liberal Democrats, 11 Greens, along with 1 apiece for Reform UK and Lincoln Independents together with 3 Independents contesting 3 elections – a total of 59 candidates for 15 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election and top vote for the double election please. 

[andrewp]

Bromley. Hayes and Coney Hall. Con 40 Lab 36 LD 16 Green 8
Denbighshire. Rhyl SW. Lab 66 Con 23 Ind 11
Hertfordshire. Harpenden Rural. LD 49 Con 35 Green 10 Lab 6
North Norfolk. Briston. LD 50 Con 38 Green 8 Lab 4
St Albans. Sandridge and Wheathampstead. LD 54 Con 33 Green 9 Lab 4

[yellowperil]

Bromley, Hayes & Harlington:Con 36, Lab 36, LD 15,GP 13. (Lab win)
Denbighshire, Rhyl SW: Con 20, Lab 61, Ind 19.
North Norfolk, Briston:Con 35, Lab 8, LD 48, GP 9.
St Albans,Sandridge & Wheathampstead: Con 36, Lab 8, LD 48, GP 8.
Hertfordshire, Harpenden Rural: Con 38, Lab 8, LD 46. GP 8.

[peterl]

Bromley, Hayes & Harlington: Lab 38, Con 34 LD 18, Grn 10
Denbighshire, Rhyl SW: Lab 61, Ind 22, Con 17
North Norfolk, Briston: LD 52, Con 31, Grn 12, Lab 5
St Albans,Sandridge & Wheathampstead: LD 49, Con 33, Grn 10, Lab 8
Hertfordshire, Harpenden Rural: LD 48, Con 36, Grn 10, Lab 6

[manchesterman]

Bromley. Hayes and Coney Hall. Con 36, Lab 34, LD 16, Green 14

Denbighshire. Rhyl SW. Lab 67, Con 22, Ind 11

Hertfordshire. Harpenden Rural. LD 46, Con 37, Green 9, Lab 8

North Norfolk. Briston. LD 46, Con 38, Green 10, Lab 6

St Albans. Sandridge and Wheathampstead. LD 46, Con 34, Green 12, Lab 8

[Robert Waller]

Bromley. Hayes and Coney Hall. Con 40 Lab 32 LD 18 Green 10

Denbighshire. Rhyl SW. Lab 65 Con 25 Ind 10

Hertfordshire. Harpenden Rural. LD 52 Con 34 Green 7 Lab 7

North Norfolk. Briston. LD 48 Con 37 Green 9 Lab 6

St Albans. Sandridge and Wheathampstead. LD 52 Con 34 Green 7 Lab 7

[corradino]

Bromley, Hayes and Coney Hall: Lab 37, Con 36, LD 17, Green 10,

Denbighshire, Rhyl SW: Lab 64, Con 20, Ind 16

Herts, Harpenden Rural: LD 53, Con 32, Lab 8, Green 7.

N Norfolk, Briston: LD 47, Con 40, Green 8, Lab 5.

St Albans, Sandridge & Wheathamstead: LD 47, Con 35, Green 10, Lab 8.

[rightleaning]

Bromley. Hayes and Coney Hall. Con 38, Lab 32, LD 19, Green 11
Denbighshire. Rhyl SW. Lab 62, Con 24, Ind 14
Hertfordshire. Harpenden Rural. LD 54, Con 35, Green 6, Lab 5
North Norfolk. Briston. LD 52, Con 36, Green 8, Lab 6
St Albans. Sandridge and Wheathampstead. LD 54, Con 30, Green 9, Lab 7

[iainbhx]

Bromley LBC, Hayes and Coney Hall: Con 39, Lab 33, LDm 20, Grn 8
Denbighshire WUA, Rhyl SW: Lab 60, Con 22, Ind 18
Hertfordshire CC, Harpenden Rural: LDm 45, Con 39, Lab 9, Grn 7
North Norfolk DC, Briston: LDm 44, Con 37, Grn 12, Lab 7
St Albans DC, Sandridge and Wheathampstead: LDm 44, Con 38, Grn 13, Lab 5

[johnloony]

Now that I have read the previews and the ward profiles, I am changing my prediction for Hertfordshire:

Hertfordshire: Con 34 LD 39 Lab 15 Grn 12

Unless it's too late to change it, in which case I'm not (where are the rules of the competition, by the way? I never remember what the deadline is)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Deadline is 9am

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to open the month. I've taken John Loony's second go at Hertfordshire which incurs 10 faults for being an hour over the deadline - hopefully this is closer than the initial attempt! Additionally, Tony Otim incurs 0.2 faults for going 0.1 over and under in Bromley and Hertfordshire respectively, JohnLoony receives 4 for going over in Denbighshire, greenman receives 2.2 for going over in North Norfolk and Right Leaning receives 2 for going over in North Norfolk.

Hayes and Coney Hall, Bromley: 9 Conservative hold, with corradino, kevinf, peterl and yellowperil Labour gain.

Rhyl South West, Denbighshire: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 29.3% (greenman) to 49% (johnloony).

Harpenden Rural, Hertfordshire: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 3% (batman) to 21% (corradino and peterl). Greenman Conservative hold with 5.6% majority.

Briston, North Norfolk: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (Tony Otim) to 35% (batman and johnloony).

Sandridge and Wheatampstead, St Albans: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (iainbhx) to 35% (johnloony).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KeZigBq9VydesRDSdxCkMY8e02euauYq18gXIeh8w8o/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to Tony Otim for wining the week, with a consistent set of performances!

[greenman]

North Kesteven, Billinghay Rural Lincolnshire Independent 33.4%/Independent 33.4%/Conservative 24.6%/LD 8.6%
Cotswold, Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South LD 56.5%/Con 32.6%/La 6.7/Ind 4.2%
Swale, Abbey LD 51.5%/La 18.4%/Con 13%/Reform 9%/Green 8.1%
Three Rivers, Chorley Wood South & Maple Cross LD 54.5%/Con 30.8%/Green 7.8%/Lab 6.9%
Warwickshire, Dunsmore & Leam Valley Con 42.7%/La 32.4%/LD 12.5%/Green 12.4%
Rugby, Dunsmore Con 37.9%/La 33.1%/LD 20.3%/Green 8.7% - possibility Labour could win one of two seats