Prediction Competition - December

[Tony Otim]

Dec 10, 2023 18:50:55 GMT greenman said:

North Kesteven, Billinghay Rural Lincolnshire Independent 33.4%/Independent 33.4%/Conservative 24.6%/LD 8.6%
Cotswold, Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South LD 56.5%/Con 32.6%/La 6.7/Ind 4.2%
Swale, Abbey LD 51.5%/La 18.4%/Con 13%/Reform 9%/Green 8.1%
Three Rivers, Chorley Wood South & Maple Cross LD 54.5%/Con 30.8%/Green 7.8%/Lab 6.9%
Warwickshire, Dunsmore & Leam Valley Con 42.7%/La 32.4%/LD 12.5%/Green 12.4%
Rugby, Dunsmore Con 37.9%/La 33.1%/LD 20.3%/Green 8.7% - possibility Labour could win one of two seats

To avoid doubt and wrong winner penalties, you probably need to specify which independent you think will take the Billinghay seat and be a bit clearer if you are predicting that Labour take one of the Dunsmore seats...

[greenman]

North Kesteven, Billinghay Rural Lincolnshire Independent will win

Not sure how to break down Warwickshire, Dunsmore & Leam valley beyond what I have already stated, but will think about it further.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 11, 2023 3:17:58 GMT greenman said:

Not sure how to break down Warwickshire, Dunsmore & Leam valley beyond what I have already stated, but will think about it further.

In terms of the competition, you would need to state either 2 Con or 1 Con, 1 Lab elected. If you don't state, it will be treated as predicting 2 Con elected as they have the highest vote share in your prediction. There are 10 potential wrong winner faults per contest, in addition to the normal penalties for difference between predictions and actual votes, so it's good to specify when it isn't clear which way seats will go (also applies to results after transfers in Scottish by-elections)

I appreciate you're a new player in the competition, hope that helps clarify a bit...

[greenman]

Correction: Rugby, Dunsmore Con 37.9%/Lab 33.1%/LD 20.3%/Green 8.7% with Conservative winning one seat and labour the other

[Tony Otim]

Cotswold: LD 44.8; Con 28.1; Regan 22.9; Lab 4.2
North Kesteven: Lincs Ind 42.1; Con 31.2; Brand 16.1; LD 10.6
Rugby: Con 40.0; Lab 29.5; LD 21.9; Grn 8.6 (2x Con elected)
Swale: LD 49.9; Lab 24.0; Con 12.9; RefUK 7.0; Grn 6.2
Three Rivers: LD 50.9; Con 26.4; Grn 14.5; Lab 8.1
Warwickshire: Con 45.8; Lab 28.3; LD 17.7; Grn 8.2

[johnloony]

Codswallop: LD 63 Con 25 Ind 7 Lab 5
North Kesteven: Con 36 Lind 31 IndB 18 LD 15
Rugby: Con 48 Lab 36 LD 11 Grn 5 i.e. Con win both seats
Swale: LD 56 Lab 21 Con 12 Grn 6 Ref 5
Three Rivers: LD 60 Con 20 Grn 12 Lab 8
Warwickshire: Con 50 Lab 26 Gre 13 LD 11

[kevinf]

Cotswold
LD 48, Con 31, Ind 14, Lab 7
N Kesteven
Lincs Ind 40, Con 39, Ind 11, LD 10
Rugby
Con 39, Lab 31, LD 20, Green 10 - 2 Con win
Swale
LD 47, Lab 30, Con 12, Ref 6, Green 5
Three Rivers
LD 51, Con 28, Green 11, Lab 10
Warwicks
Con 45, Lab 28, LD 15, Green 12

[batman]

COTSWOLD, Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford S. : LD 52 C 33 Ind 9 Lab 6

N.KESTEVEN, Billinghay Rural : C 38 Lincs Ind 35 Ind Brand 20 LD 7

RUGBY, Dunsmore (top candidates) : C 43 Lab 35 LD 14 Green 8. C win both seats

SWALE, Abbey : LD 49 Lab 21 C 19 RefUK 7 Green 4

THREE RIVERS, Chorleywood S. & Maple Cross : LD 52 C 27 Green 12 Lab 9

WARWICKSHIRE, Dunsmore & Leam Valley : C 49 Lab 30 LD 14 Green 7

[yellowbelly]

I'm new to this so apologies for any mistakes.

Cotswolds: LD 55.7 Con 32.2 Ind 6.9 Lab 5.2
North Kesteven: LD 43.7 Con 35.6 Lincs Ind 16.1 Ind 4.6
Rugby: Con 37.2 Lab 29.5 LD 25.5 Grn 7.8 (Both Cons elected)
Swale: LD 52.3 Lab 25.3 Con 9.8 RefUK 6.5 Grn 6.1
Three Rivers: LD 58.7 Con 26.4 Lab 8.1 Grn 6.8
Warwickshire: Con 42.4 Lab 32.7 LD 17.1 Grn 7.8

[andrewp]

Dec 13, 2023 14:49:58 GMT yellowbelly said:

I'm new to this so apologies for any mistakes.

Cotswolds: LD 55.7 Con 32.2 Ind 6.9 Lab 5.2
North Kesteven: LD 43.7 Con 35.6 Lincs Ind 16.1 Ind 4.6
Rugby: Con 37.2 Lab 29.5 LD 25.5 Grn 7.8 (Both Cons elected)
Swale: LD 52.3 Lab 25.3 Con 9.8 RefUK 6.5 Grn 6.1
Three Rivers: LD 58.7 Con 26.4 Lab 8.1 Grn 6.8
Warwickshire: Con 42.4 Lab 32.7 LD 17.1 Grn 7.8

Looks good. Welcome to the competition!

[andrewp]

Cotswold. Lechlade, Kenpsford and Fairford South, LD 55 Con 34 Lab 6 Ind 5
North Kesteven. Billinghay Rural. Con 40 LIN 33 LD 18 Ind 9
Rugby. Dunsmore Con 38, Lab 32, LD 23 Green 7. 2 x Con win
Swale. Abbey, LD 56 Lab 21 Con 15 RefUK 4 Green 4
Three Rivers. Chorleywood S and Maple Cross. LD 58 Con 25 Lab 9 Green 8
Warwickshire. Dunsmore and Leam Valley. Con 42 Lab 29 LD 22 Green 7

[Robert Waller]

Cotswold: LD 51; Con 30; Regan 11; Lab 8

North Kesteven: Lincs Ind 43; Con 44; Brand 6; LD 7

Rugby: Con 34; Lab 25; LD 33; Grn 8 ( 1 x Con, 1 x LD elected)

Swale: LD 53; Lab 24; Con 14; RefUK 5; Grn 4

Three Rivers: LD 57; Con 24; Grn 11; Lab 8

Warwickshire: Con 38; Lab 24; LD 30; Grn 8

[corradino]

Cotswold, Lechlade etc; LD 47 Con 43, Lab 7 Ind 3.

North Kesteven, Billinghay: Lincs Inds 40, Con 38, LD 15, Ind (Brand) 7.

Rugby, Dunsmore: Con 42, Lab 35, LD 17, Green 6. 2 Cons win.

Swale, Abbey: LD 50, Lab 23, Con 17, Green 5, Reform 5.

Three Rivers, Chorleywood South etc: LD 49, Con 26, Green 15, Lab 10.

Warwickshire, Dunsmore and Leam Valley: Con 50, Lab 31, Green 10, LD 9.

[yellowperil]

North Kesteven, Billinghay: Con 35,LD 37, LincsInd 18, Ind 10.
Cotswold, Lechlade,etc: Con 35, Lab 6, LD 50, Ind 9.
Swale, Abbey: Con 16, Lab 24, LD 50, GP 4, RefUK 6.
Three Rivers, Chorley Wood, etc: Con 25, Lab 10, LD 50, GP 15.
Warks, Dunsmore & Leah Valley: Con 40, Lab 24, LD 29, GP 7.
Rugby, Dunsmore(x2): Con 36, Lab 25, LD 33, GP 6. Conx1 , LDx1.

[manchesterman]

Cotswold, Lechlade etc; LD 51, Con 33, Ind 11, Lab 5.

North Kesteven, Billinghay: Lincs Inds 38, Con 36, Ind (Brand) 15, LD 11.

Rugby, Dunsmore: Con 40, Lab 30, LD 24, Green 6. [2 x Con win.]

Swale, Abbey: LD 51, Lab 21, Con 16, Reform 8, Green 4.

Three Rivers, Chorleywood South etc: LD 55, Con 26, Green 11, Lab 8.

Warwickshire, Dunsmore and Leam Valley: Con 46, Lab 28, LD 19, Green 7.

[peterl]

Cotswold, Lechlade etc; LD 51 Con 38, Lab 6 Ind 5.
North Kesteven, Billinghay: Lincs Inds 41, Con 35, LD 15, Ind (Brand) 9.
Rugby, Dunsmore: Con 40, LD 34, Lab 21, Green 5. 2 Cons win.
Swale, Abbey: LD 52 Lab 25 Con 10 Grn 8 Ref 5
Three Rivers, Chorleywood South etc: LD 52, Con 20, Green 17, Lab 11.
Warwickshire, Dunsmore and Leam Valley: Con 42, LD 33, Lab 14, Green 11.

[rightleaning]

Cotswold: LD 47, Con 33, Regan 12, Lab 8
North Kesteven: Lincs Ind 46, Con 40, LD 9, Brand 5.
Rugby: Con 38, LD 32, Lab 22; Grn 8 (2x Con elected)
Swale: LD 48, Lab 24, Con 18, Grn 6, RefUK 4;
Three Rivers: LD 55, Con 25, Grn 13, Lab 7
Warwickshire: Con 40, LD 30, Lab 22, Grn 8

[iainbhx]

Cotswold DC, Lechlade, Kenpsford and Fairford South: LDm 48, Con 32, Ind Regan 13, Lab 7
North Kesteven DC, Billinghay Rural: Con 42; LDm 27, LInd 26, Ind Brand 5
Rugby DC, Dunsmore: Con 41, LDm 28, Lab 24, Grn 7 (2 Con elected)
Swale DC, Abbey: LDm 53, Lab 22, Con 15, Grn 6, REF-UK 4
Three Rivers DC, Chorleywood South & Maple Cross: LDm 54, Con 25, Grn 12, Lab 9
Warwickshire CC, Dunsmore & Leam Valley: Con 45, LDm 25, Lab 20, Grn 10

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, with a maiden appearance from yellowbelly. All on time, but with Tony Otim picking up 0.1 faults for going under in Three Rivers.

Lechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South, Cotswold: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (corradino) to 38% (johnloony).

Billinghay Rural, North Kesteven: 7 Lincolnshire Independent gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, iainbhx, johnloony and Robert Waller Conservative hold, and yellowbelly and yellowperil Liberal Democrat gain.

Dunsmore, Rugby: 11 Conservative holding both seats, with Robert Waller and yellowperil 1 Conservative hold and 1 Liberal Democrat gain, and greenman 1 Conservative hold and 1 Labour gain. 100% have Conservative ahead on top vote, with majorities ranging from 1% (Robert Waller) to 13% (iainbhx).

Abbey, Swale: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (kevinf) to 35% (andrewp and johnloony).

Chorleywood South and Maple Cross, Three Rivers: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 23% (corradino and kevinf) to 40% (johnloony).

Dunsmore and Leam Valley, Warwickshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (Robert Waller) to 24% (johnloony).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tJhoLNAhuPCT21JF3oZ65MU48j2qgOgjkP0Uz6znWCI/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Many congratulations to yellowperil for winning the week and for taking a decent lead inti the final three contests for the month.
A word too for an excellent debut by yellowbelly, hope they will continue to compete even as the focus moves away fro Lincolnshire!


Thanks too to robbienicoll for getting the results up so swiftly and for all his hard work during the year.